Queensland election 2024 results LIVE: Devastating blow for Steven Miles’ Labor but victory is still out of reach for David Crisafulli’s LNP – as Annastacia Palaszczuk refuses to answer key question: Latest updates

The Liberal-National Party will win government, according to Sky News and the ABC’s Antony Green.

The real question is whether they will be able to form a majority government.

With 53 per cent of the votes counted, the LNP has 42 seats and the ALP has 35.

There are nine seats in question.

Turn the lights off grab some sleep if you like, this election is over. Labor has lost and the LNP has won.

Let the electoral commission counters keep doing their job but how further results fall from here will only decide whether the change of government is to a minority or majority LNP first term administration under Premier David Crisafulli.

What does a tight Queensland state election result mean for the looming federal election? It all depends which party forms government – but the LNP increasingly appears on track to win.

The LNP will be within a few seats of the majority even if they don’t quite get there.

Federal Liberals will hope their state colleagues start cautiously, and build on support from their honeymoon with voters.

But the risk would be that – having elected a conservative government at the state level – voters will be prepared to re-elect a Labor government federally.

If Labor did by some miracle eke out a win in Queensland and form minority government – because that’s the only way it can stay in power with its lost majority – that would be mana from heaven for Peter Dutton.

Because voters won’t have taken out their anger on state Labor – for cost of living challenges – and may yet do so federally.

A fourth Labor term in power in Queensland, in minority government, could in the months to come turn many more voters off the Labor brand

Sky News political editor Andrew Clennell asked Ms Palaszczuk if she thought the current Labor leader should step down as news of the party losing its majority broke.

‘Who should lead Labor if they go down tonight?’ Clennell asked.
‘Should Steven Miles stay on?’

Ms Palaszczuk refused to give a clear answer, saying instead it was a ‘matter for Steven’.

‘We are not even in that territory yet so let’s wait, that’s later in the night,’ she said as Clennell cut across her, saying: ‘I think we’re getting there.’

Ms Palaszczuk added: ‘But the party members have warmed to Steven, the public has warmed to Steven and the night is not over.’

Earlier in the night, Ms Palaszczuk was questioned by panellists whether she made the decision to quit as premier too late in her term, hurting Steven Miles’ prospects of victory in the process.

‘I gave Steven a very clear run … all of 2024,’ she said.

She was then asked whether she could have won this election if she had remained leader.

‘I won three elections and I had an increased majority each time,” she said.

‘I don’t think many people could say that.’

Labor has lost its majority, but there is no LNP majority at this stage.

With 22 per cent of the votes counted, Labor’s vote is down 5.2 per cent on the last election, while the LNP is up 3.8 per cent.

The LNP has gained six seats in regional Queensland, but there is no movement so far in the greater Brisbane area.

Daily Mail Australia Political editor Peter van Onselen said: It’s now a certainty that Labor cannot form majority government. It also trails the LNP in the number of seats each major party holds as confirmed wins.

But it is also becoming hard to see the LNP form majority government, but not impossible at this stage. If neither major party form majority government it will be interesting to see if either leader breaks their pre-election pledge to not deal with the cross bench to form minority government.

The LNP will be tempted to break that pledge to deliver a change of government.

You would still rather be the LNP than the Labor Party if winning this election is the goal. But it is closer than it should have been!

With about 36 per cent of the votes counted, Labor is at 35 seats while the LNP is at 41.

The Greens have scored one seat, KAP has three seats, and Independents have one.

Labor will not win a majority government. Analysts say the LNP could scrape though with a majority.

The likely scenarios are either a minority government or a hung parliament.

Normally, analysts would have a fairly strong idea of the winner by now – three hours after the polls closed.

In this instance, the votes are so close that it’s difficult to make a call.

Outgoing Labor MP Brittany Lauga concedes defeat, saying her ‘heart is broken’.

Speaking to Labor supporters on Saturday night, she commented on her achievements during her time in parliament.

‘I feel your heart breaking, because my heart has broken too,” she told her supporters.

‘We have worked so hard for our community.’

Despite initial figures, the Greens member Michael Berkman has retained his seat of Maiwar.

Michael Berkman thanked volunteers and supporters for managing to get the ‘highest primary vote ever for the Queensland Greens’.

‘I couldn’t be prouder to stand here in front of you all,’ he said on Saturday night.

‘We have seen that we as a party have fundamentally shifted the direction of this whole state campaign.’

‘We have seen half our 2020 platform being picked up by a sad, dying Labor government in its last days to try and recover a little bit of popularity, because they know our plans are popular.’

The ABC’s election analyst Antony Green says the LNP could win a majority government.

The LNP has to win 47 seats to form a majority government. There are still 13 seats in doubt.

The biggest swing against Labor is in the outer suburbs. Around Brisbane, there’s no real change at this stage.

Pre-poll and postal votes are still coming through.

Mr Green said: ‘At this stage, I would say they’ve got a better chance of finishing with more seats than Labor, so that’s what the picture may be by the end of the evening.’

Bianca Stone resigned as TV reporter for Channel 7 in 2023 and became LNP leader David Crisafulli’s candidate for the seat of Gaven.

But, with about 26 per cent of votes counted, it looks as though Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon has retained her seat.

In July 2021, Ms Stone accused the Labor leader of pulling a ‘publicity stunt’ when she claimed she could not get enough Pfizer vaccines. She sassily told Ms Palaszczuk: ‘I work for Sunrise – the show you didn’t appear on this morning’.

The premier snapped back: ‘Well, I’m not going to answer people being rude, so anyone else have a question?

‘You are being very rude,’ Ms Palaszczuk continued – before moving on and avoiding addressing the issue that Ms Stone had raised.

The Greens could lose seats in South Brisbane and Maiwar.

South Brisbane MP Amy Macmahon has suffered a 11.91 per cent swing against on a two-party-preferred basis.

In Maiwar, the LNP’s Natasha Winters could win against Greens MP Michael Berkman.

A LNP insider at the heart of the campaign says the results are ‘looking OK’ but ‘it’s a bit tight for my liking’:

The risk for the LNP is the longer the election seems as tight as it’s starting to look, the more you start to think an incumbent government with well-known long-term MPs in key seats just might manage to sandbag seats and buck the state wide trend.

The LNP is holding all of its seats and is ahead in a number of close Labor held seats, but not by enough to lock them in as changing hands. A state wide swing to the LNP of 4.3 percent right now might not deliver them majority government.

It’s going to be a long night, perhaps a long week as counting continues and postal votes come in.

A Sunrise reporter who Annastacia Palaszczuk slammed as ‘very rude’ at a press conference will tonight learn if she is elected as a Liberal National Party MP – as exit polls show a surprisingly tight race in the Queensland state election.

Ms Palaszczuk, the then-state Labor Premier, spectacularly clashed with long-time Channel Seven journalist Bianca Stone in a memorably frosty Covid press conference exchange.

In July 2021, Ms Stone accused the Labor leader of pulling a ‘publicity stunt’ when she claimed she could not get enough Pfizer vaccines. She sassily told Ms Palaszczuk: ‘I work for Sunrise – the show you didn’t appear on this morning’.

The ABC has projected that MP Brittany Lauga – who was embroiled in a shocking incident earlier this year – is likely to lose the seat of Keppel in Central Queensland.

With about 15 per cent of the vote counted, Ms Lauga had 29 per cent behind LNP candidate Nigel Hutton, who has 34 per cent.

Ms Lauga first won the seat in 2015. She was re-elected at the last election on a slim margin.

In May it was revealed that Ms Lauga was allegedly filmed being sexually abused in the street outside a hotel while socialising.

In a series of online messages in the wake of the incident, she said she had no idea who her abuser was, and told an acquaintance: ‘I was out of my mind.’

Former LNP premier Campbell Newman had a fiery clash with LNP Senator James McGrath over the campaign the party ran this election.

Mr Newman, who led the LNP to a landslide victory in 2012 before departing after just one term, slammed the lackluster campaign from the party he quit in mid-2021.

‘It has been a bad campaign,’ Mr Newman told Sky News Australia.

‘And the bad campaign is demonstrated by this fact: that in the five weeks, Steven Miles has gone from a net favourability of -10 to -3, that’s quite an improvement. And David Crisafulli’s gone from +12 to -3 in the same period.’

Senator McGrath said Mr Newman was being ‘unfair’.

‘I think it’s unfair of you to attack Crisafulli because the same thing happened to you when you were leader of the opposition,’ he said.

But Mr Newman fired back, accusing his former colleague of adopting an ‘absolutely preposterous’ position.

‘The LNP has lost its way It doesn’t back up its own values and principles, it’s gone left,’ he fumed.

Mr Newman said it could have been a landslide win had the LNP not bungled the campaign.

Early figures show the LNP’s member for Currumbin Laura Gerber has won her seat.

Labor’s Mark Furner is projected to retain the seat of Ferny Grove.

LNP’s James Lister could retain Southern Downs.

The LNP’s Trevor Watts is ahead in Toowoomba North.

In Thuringowa, Labor’s Aaron Harper is ahead on 34.86 per cent. Natalie Marr of the LNP follows on 31.76 per cent. Reuben Richardson of Katter’s Australian Party is on 14.79 per cent.

In Mundingburra, LNP’s Janelle Poole is ahead on 45.06 per cent. Labor’s Les Walker is ahead on 32.41 per cent, KAP’s Michael Pugh is on 9.88 per cent and Rebecca Haley of The Greens on 9.26 per cent.

KAP leader Robbie Katter is winning in Traeger, with 64 per cent of the first preferences in the first 130 votes.

The LNP could win Mackay for the first time in more than 100 years if Nigel Dalton can get a further 6.7 per cent.

The following seats have been called:

LNP: Burleigh, Burnett, Callide, Condamine, Glass House, Gregory, Gympie, Keppel, Lockyer, Mudgeeraba, Mundingburra, Scenic Rim, Southern Downs, Surfers Paradise, Toowoomba North, Toowoomba South, Warrego, Whitsundays

Labor: Ferny Grove, Gladstone, Greenslopes, Inala, Jordan, Miller, Springwood, Stretton, Woodridge

Greens: South Brisbane, Maiwar

It’s not impossible for Labor to win, at this early point – but it’s very unlikely.

At this very early stage the LNP is in the box seat to form government.

It will take some time, however, to see what that government might look like.

Based on the very early statewide numbers coming in Labor would need to sandbag marginal seats on a scale rarely seen to retain government.

Its two-party vote is roughly four points behind that of the LNP so far.

Even then, the outside chance of Labor winning would likely only be as a re-elected minority government, needing the support of the Greens or the Katter Party, or both.

Having canvassed what insiders on both sides of the major party divide are seeing and hearing from their scrutineers on the ground – who get the rough numbers before the official results filter through via the electoral commission – Labor is downcast and the LNP says it’s ‘looking good’.

But a senior Labor figure won’t discount Labor’s potential to deny the LNP enough seats to form majority government.

‘I wouldn’t discount our chances to scrape back into power,’ they told Daily Mail Australia.

I think that’s wishful thinking as anything other than an unstable minority government. Which can’t be discounted at this stage.

First figures show the LNP has taken five seats.

James Lister, the LNP member for the Southern Downs, has 46.69 per cent of the votes. He is ahead of One Nation’s Liz Suduk and Labor’s Greg Johnson.

Bryson Head of Callide has claimed nearly 60 per cent of the vote.

Sean Dillon in Gregory has more than 64 per cent.

Jon Krause of the Scenic Rim has 40 per cent of the vote. Ann Leahy in Warrego has 62 per cent of the votes.

This election has been predicted to be one of the tightest in years, with the state’s Deputy leader Cameron Dick telling the ABC he would be surprised if Labor won.

‘As difficult as it is for me to say, I think it would be a surprise for Queensland Labor to win the election,’ he said.

But Queensland politics is very volatile and unpredictable and anything is possible.’

While David Crisafulli’s LNP was tipped to form a majority government by a landslide, an exit poll suggests the two parties could be neck and neck.

There are 30 key seats to watch in the Queensland election. The winning party will have to claim 47 seats to form a majority government.

Bundaberg: Labor’s Tom Smith, a former teacher, won the seat in 2020 by nine votes.

The victory was credited to ‘Palaszczuk’s pensioners’ – the movement of older Queenslanders who endorsed the former premier’s Covid-19 decisions.

His main competition comes from Fruit and Vegetable Growers CEO Bree Watson for the LNP.

Nicklin: Labor MP Rob Skelton will defend the marginal seat against former LNP member Marty Hunt.

Mr Skelton won the seat in 2020 with a 5.4 per cent swing to Labor.

Hervey Bay: Labor won the seat in 2020 thanks to the retirement of a long-serving LNP member, and Palaszczuk’s pensioners.

Labor’s Adrian Tantari won against LNP’s Steve Coleman. This time, he will face former councillor David Lee.

Caloundra: Labor won Caloundra for the first time in 2020 when Jason Hunt won office, also on the back of Palaszczuk’s pensioners.

Mr Huint is running against the LNP’s Kendall Morton.

Barron River: Labor’s Craig Crawford hold the seat, but the margin is 3.1 per cent.

Townsville: Labor’s Scott Stewart’s seat is held by just 3.1 per cent.

He faces the LNP’s Adam Baillie, who will try to win for the second time in 30 years. Polling suggests Labor’s three seats in the area will fall due to the region’s crime issues.

Thuringowa: Aaron Harper was elected with Annastacia Palaszczuk in 2015 and will try to win a fourth term. He hold the seat by a 3.2 per cent margin.

Mundingburra: Les Walker will face off against the LNP’s Janelle Poole.

Redlands: Kim Richards won the seat in 2020, again on the back of Palaszczuk’s pensioners.

She will be challenged by former chamber of commerce president, Rebecca Young.

Aspley: Bart Mellish, the minister for transport, defeated former Brisbane City Councillor Amanda Cooper in 2020 with an eight per cent swing.

Other key Labor seats include Pumicestone, Cairns, Keppel, Redcliffe, Cook, Mackay, Pine Rivers, Mansfield, Gaven, Springwood, Rockhampton, Capalaba, Cooper, McConnel, and Greenslopes.

Michael Crandon hold the seat of Coomera for the LNP with a thin margin of 1.1 per cent.

Stephen Andrew will try to retain his seat of Mirani for Katter’s Australian Party.

Sandy Bolton is the independent MP for Noosa following an enormous 15.8 per cent margin. Her biggest competition is the LNP.

Amy Macmahon holds the South Brisbane seat for the Greens with a 5.3 per cent margin.

An exit poll across ten crucial seats shows Labor and the LNP are neck and neck – less than an hour before voting closes.

About 2000 voters were polled as they cast their ballots, revealing 33.9 per cent supported the LNP while 33.6 backed Labor.

The exit poll, conducted by the Courier-Mail, show the Miles Government could make a comeback after slumping in Newspoll on Thursday – when Labor had 33 per cent of votes and the LNP had 42 per cent.

In Townsville on Saturday, exit polls showed the major parties had an equal number of votes.

Of the 200 people polled across the seat, both Labor’s Les Walker and the LNP’s Janelle Poole had 75 votes, or 37.5 per cent.

Michael Pugh from Katter’s Australian Party had 31 votes, 15.5 per cent.

Rebecca Haley from the Greens had 14 votes, seven per cent, and five people voted for One Nation’s Mick Olsen.

The polls also showed Labor was ahead in Mulgrave, Cairns, with 64 votes. The LNP had 51 votes.

In Keppel, the LNP’s Nigel Hutton was marginally ahead with 63, 31.5 per cent, of the 200 votes counted.

Labor member Brittany Lauga had 57 votes, 28.5 per cent, while One Nation’s James Ashby had 54 votes, 27 per cent.

In Brisbane, exit polls showed Transport Minister Bart Mellish could retain his seat of Aspley with 81 votes.

ALP’s Jonty Bush was also likely to keep her seat of Cooper.’

In Caloundra, former teacher Kendall Morton could take the seat back from Jason Hunt.

Out of the 200 voters who were polled on Saturday, 96 said they voted for the LNP, 59 voted ALP, 26 voted for the Greens, 11 for One Nation, and 6 for the Legalise Cannabis party.

Russell Field, the LNP candidate for Capalaba, spent the day at the Alexandra Hills State High School polling booth – just 2km from where his son, partner and their unborn child were killed in 2021.

Mr Field, who is trying to take the seat from Labor’s Don Brown, said he thinks about his son every time he’s in the area.

‘It never leaves you and some might ask how can I do this [campaign] but something needs to be done,’ he told the Courier-Mail.

‘Don Brown’s comments that youth crime is a media beat up hit all the victims of crime – and they are the people who I want to help.’

Mr Brown has held the seat since 2015 and feels confident he’ll retain his position, despite backlash after he said youth crime was ‘a media beat up’.

He won the 2020 election with a 9.81 per cent margin.

Robbie Katter, the leader of Katter’s Australian Party, has threatened to sue the LNP over campaign signs that claim he made a secret deal with the current Labor government to keep it in power.

Lawyers on behalf of Mr Katter urged the state’s Electoral Commission to remove the poster from the voting centre at Mount Isa Central State School before 6pm local time, when voting closes.

Mr Katter accused the LNP of engaging in ‘gutter politics’ and asked the party leader David Crisafulli to personally take them down.

‘He knows that’s a lie and they’ve chosen not to,’ Mr Katter told the ABC.

‘It’s a very poor start to what is likely to be his tenure as premier.

‘People have to be held accountable for what they do, if they’re going to tell lies, they’ve got to be held accountable for it.’

He said Labor had done a ‘terrible job’ since it won government and ‘there’s a good reason everyone is trying to get rid of them’.

The poster does not identify the LNP but shows Labor leader Steven Miles and Mr Katter in Akubra hats with the phrase ‘they’ve done a deal, don’t risk it’.

They can also be seen around Townsville booths.

It’s understood the man started shouting about abortion at the polling booth at the Alexandra Hills State High School on Saturday, the Courier Mail reported.

Police were called by volunteers and officers arrived at the school and told the man to move on.

Brad Aldcroft has made the voting experience that much metter for Queenslanders today with his sausage sizzle menu.

Mr Aldcroft was selling sausage sandwiches for as little as $3.50 at the Capalaba College Hall, west of Brisbane, on Saturday.

Sauce was free while drinks were just $2 and plain white bread had a pricetag of 50c.

Many of his variations of sausage sandwiches were named after Aussie prime ministers.

Labor MP Les Walker claims signs have been tampered with in his seat of Mundingburra.

He told the ABC he has escalated the matter to the Electoral Commission of Queensland.

Peter Lindsay, from the LNP, said staffers had moved Labor signs ‘which were on the right hand side of the gate, when they should have been on the left’.

Bianca Stone, who resigned from being a TV reporter for Channel 7 in 2023, is LNP leader David Crisafulli’s candidate for the seat of Gaven.

Ms Stone was grilled by Highland Park resident Vicki Campbell on Saturday morning, according to the Gold Coast Bulletin, who asked Ms Stone where she had been throughout the election campaign.

Replying she’d been out and about, Ms Campbell hit back.

‘Not at our place,’ she replied before setting her sights on Mr Crisafulli.

‘How are you going to handle the health system?’ Ms Campbell asked the LNP leader.

‘By making sure it’s properly resourced,’ Mr Crisafulli said.

Ms Campbell later told the Bulletin she hadn’t seen Ms Stone out, ‘either door knocking or at Nerang’.

‘I’ve only seen her on a poster. Meaghan (Scanlon) is committed and consistent. She’s out there with the general public,’ Ms Campbell said.

‘I’m a Liberal voter by the way. I’m not a Labor voter.’

Internet issues saw printers at the St Finbarr’s Catholic Primary School school to shut down, forcing voters to be turned away on Saturday.

The printing issue meant ballot papers could not be churned out at the school in Ashgrove, Brisbane.

The Electoral Commission of Queensland told the Courier Mail it was aware of the issue, with only St Finbarr’s impacted.

‘As a precaution we are checking with our digital technology department to ensure they are already in correspondence with the Cooper electorate to ensure this is in hand,’ a spokesperson said.

It’s understood the issue has since been resolved.

A Newspoll conducted for The Australian ahead of Saturday’s election shows that despite efforts by Premier Steven Miles to claw back ground in recent weeks, Labor is on track for defeat after almost a decade in power.

The Newspoll shows the opposition leads the Labor government 52.5 to 47.5 per cent after preferences.

The poll of 1151 Queenslanders conducted from October 18 to Thursday shows Labor’s primary vote up three points to 33 per cent while support for the LNP remains stable at 42 per cent.

Steven Miles broke former Labor premier Anna Bligh’s record when he managed to visit 36 electorates in 36 hours.

Ms Bligh visited 50 seats in five days during 2012.

The Queensland Premier even utilised a jet ski to get around the state this week.

‘What better way to get between two Gold Coast seats than on a jet ski,’ he said.

He also enjoyed a traditional Aussie meat pie during his campaign.

David Crisafulli arrived with his wife Tegan vote at the Springwood State High school, for polling day in Brisbane on Saturday.

The pair were suitably dressed in blue, the colour associated with the Liberal party.

‘Here’s to a fresh start for Queensland,’ he said as he dropped his ballot.

Queensland Premier Steven Miles and his wife Kim voted at the Kallangur State School in Brisbane on Saturday morning.

Mr Miles was seen with his arm around his daughter Bridie as he headed to cast his ballot.