Reform would win the most seats if a general election was called now, a mega-poll claims for the first time today, putting Nigel Farage on course to become Prime Minister.
Analysis of a survey of 5,180 people predicts the upstart Right-wing party would secure 25 per cent of the vote, with Labour and the Conservatives tied on 23 per cent each.
It gives Reform 227 seats in the House of Commons – up from five at last year’s election – with Labour slumping from 412 to 180 while the Tories would get 130, up from 121.
But with all three parties falling short of the 326 constituencies needed to win a majority, the election predictor suggests the prospect of ‘a Reform-Conservative coalition government with Nigel Farage as Prime Minister’ is ‘increasingly likely’.
Founder of pollsters Electoral Calculus Martin Baxter, which carried out the MRP poll, said: ‘British politics is experiencing an unprecedented three-way race.
‘There are now three major parties, but none of them are popular enough to win an outright majority.
‘The situation is extremely fluid, and small movements in popular support will make big changes to the parliamentary arithmetic. Reform are ahead at the moment, but it is still very close overall.’
The polling also found a continuing lack of trust in policies, with a third (33 per cent) of voters saying they do not trust any of the major party leaders to represent the UK on the world stage and a further quarter (24 per cent) unsure of who they can trust.
Mr Farage is tied with Sir Keir Starmer as the party leaders most trusted to represent Britain internationally (16 per cent each) with Kemi Badenoch third on 5 per cent.
Kevin Craig, founder of communications agency PLMR, which commissioned the poll, said: ‘As the three-horse race for Number 10 continues, it is striking that the majority of the public either don’t know which of the UK’s party leaders they can trust, or don’t trust anyone to represent the UK on the international stage.
‘This speaks to a wider crisis of political confidence that the Prime Minister must grapple with in order to remain in Government in four years’ time.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage reacts after being elected to become MP for Clacton last July
Mr Farage is tied with Sir Keir Starmer (pictured leaving Downing Street for Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday) as the party leaders most trusted to represent Britain internationally
‘While Sir Keir Starmer continues to perform well abroad and project stability on the global stage, these numbers show that success overseas doesn’t automatically translate to trust at home.’
The latest boost for Reform comes after the party said it was standing 1,638 candidates in next month’s local elections – 99.8 per cent of the seats up for election, compared with just 12 per cent last year.
Reform is also tipped to win from Labour the first by-election since last year’s election, which will also take place on May 1st.
It emerged yesterday that Tory MP Esther McVey not only backed an ‘electoral pact’ between the two parties at the next election but also said that the Conservatives should stand aside to let Reform win the looming contest in Runcorn.
However both Mr Farage and Mrs Badenoch have ruled out a deal between their parties.
