Top Republicans are reportedly worried about their chances in the upcoming midterm elections – and they blame the Iran war, skyrocketing gas prices and history not being on their side.
Their concerns are not just confined to swing states.
In Texas, long considered a Republican fortress, Lt Gov Dan Patrick delivered one of the starkest warnings yet, telling a conservative audience that the political climate resembles 2018, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke came close to unseating GOP Senator Ted Cruz.
He cautioned that bitter infighting in a high-profile Senate primary between Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton could have ripple effects across the ballot.
‘This is the nastiest race we’ve had in a primary between Republicans in 20 to 25 years and maybe ever,’ Patrick said referring to the high-stakes Senate contest between Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. ‘I want to wake people up.’
Democratic Texas state Representative James Talarico has emerged as a potential beneficiary of that turmoil, drawing attention for his fundraising strength and relatively measured political style.
Talarico raised $27 million in the first quarter, a figure that caught the attention of GOP lawmakers tracking the race.
Some Republicans have privately acknowledged that his lower-key approach could appeal to swing voters in a volatile political environment, particularly if internal divisions within the GOP persist.
Donald Trump is facing declining approval ratings heading into the midterms
Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick has warned Republicans they could lose control of the Texas House if divisions persist
James Talarico has emerged as a rising Democratic challenger, with his $27 million fundraising haul drawing attention from Republicans worried he could capitalize on GOP divisions
In Wisconsin, Republican officials are openly questioning leadership after a state supreme court race ended in a decisive loss, with a liberal candidate defeating a conservative opponent by roughly 20 percentage points.
The result that has triggered calls for change within the state party.
‘If you own a football team and your quarterback keeps throwing interceptions, would you keep that quarterback?’ said Chris Slinker, a member of the state GOP’s executive committee to the Wall Street Journal.
Meanwhile in Arizona, another battleground state, Republicans are expressing frustration after failing to secure control of a Phoenix-area utility board, raising concerns about turnout operations and the effectiveness of key outside groups.
‘I think everybody would be in agreement that the Republican Party is the underdog this November,’ Thomas Galvin, a Republican Maricopa County supervisor, said.
Across these states, a clear pattern is taking shape.
The ongoing war involving Iran is reshaping the political environment ahead of the elections
Trump’s criticism of Pope Leo XIV has sparked backlash among religious voters
Patrick warned that even a small drop-off in Republican voters, as little as 10 to 15 percent deciding to stay home could be enough to tip key races.
Nonpartisan election analysts are already shifting expectations.
Recent ratings changes have moved several key Senate races toward Democrats, including contests in Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina.
House projections have also shifted, and even the governor’s race in Iowa, a state that leaned heavily Republican in recent presidential elections, is now viewed as competitive.
The historical trend is also working against the GOP. Since World War II, the party holding the White House has only gained seats twice, in 1998 and 2002.
Ken Paxton is locked in a bitter primary battle with Senator John Cornyn, right. Paxton’s candidacy has raised concerns among Republicans about general election viability
Former Texas Speaker of the House Dade Phelan said internal projections show multiple GOP seats could flip
‘It looks dour,’ said Rep. David Schweikert, an Arizona Republican representing a highly competitive district
Now, additional headwinds are complicating that outlook.
‘It looks dour,’ David Schweikert, an Arizona Republican representing a highly competitive district, said.
He said he has been urging fellow Republicans to focus more on local issues and show empathy toward voters dealing with economic strain.
Compounding the uncertainty is the unpredictable impact of Donald Trump.
His approval rating has dipped, and recent controversies including criticism of religious figures and social media activity have distracted from the party’s economic messaging.
Republicans had hoped to highlight tax cuts and domestic policy wins, but instead find themselves responding to external events and internal disputes.
Oren Cass, chief economist at the conservative think tank American Compass, questioned whether the administration has effectively addressed voters’ core concerns.
‘He hasn’t been governing in a way that would lead your typical American to believe he is, in fact, focused on delivering solutions to their challenges,’ Cass said to WSJ.
JD Vance defended Trump during the escalating clash with the pope. Vance said it was ‘preposterous’ to suggest Republicans will suffer major midterm losses
Donald Trump’s slipping approval rating and recent controversies have added to Republican anxiety as the party heads into a volatile midterm cycle
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been heavily involved in US foreign policy – including the war in Iran
Vice President JD Vance pushed back, calling it ‘preposterous’ to suggest Republicans are headed for major losses.
In Texas, state Representative Dade Phelan said internal projections suggest multiple state House seats could flip enough, in some scenarios, to hand control to Democrats for the first time in decades.
‘There’s definitely a nervous buzz,’ he said.
Despite the mounting concerns, Republicans retain significant financial advantages.
The party and its allied groups continue to outraise Democratic counterparts in key areas, and major political action committees tied to Trump are sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars that could be deployed in the final stretch.
Meanwhile, Democrats are also facing their own internal divisions and primary battles that could shape the general election landscape – and it has been far from smooth sailing.
It hasn’t been smooth sailing for the Democrats and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the lead-up to the midterms
On Friday, Ocasio-Cortez seemed to humiliate her former aide Saikat Chakrabarti, left, as she declined to endorse him
On Friday, outspoken Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez seemed to humiliate her former aide Saikat Chakrabarti in his run for Congress as she declined to endorse him.
‘For me, overall, I’m trying to think about the role I’m trying to play more broadly in these things,’ she said.
Chakrabarti served as Ocasio-Cortez’s chief of staff after she was elected to Congress in 2018, and is running to succeed Nancy Pelosi in San Francisco.
