Speculators have launched a £7billion attack on the pound just as Chancellor John Healey puts the finishing touches to his maiden Budget, The Mail on Sunday can reveal.
In what the Conservatives branded a ‘complete lack of faith in Labour’s economic policies’, traders have placed their biggest bet against sterling in nearly a decade, official figures show.
The news comes after Mr Healey was rebuked by the International Monetary Fund, which met in Thailand this week, for planning to hit banks with a windfall tax instead of cutting the welfare bill.
Bank bosses have warned that any such raid on their bumper profits would push up interest rates on mortgages and business loans and reduce lending and investment.
Financial markets are watching Mr Healey like a hawk as he tries to fix the battered public finances without breaking his fiscal rule that day-to-day spending should be paid for by taxes rather than more debt.
Government borrowing costs have surged to a 28-year high as part of a global sell-off in the bond market, limiting Mr Healey’s room for manoeuvre.
The currency markets have been calmer, with the pound recently trading in a narrow range around $1.33. But hedge funds and foreign exchange traders have been steadily ramping up their bets that sterling will fall against the US dollar and other currencies in what has become the most sustained assault on the pound since Brexit.
Mr Healey (centre) was rebuked by the International Monetary Fund, which met in Thailand this week, for planning to hit banks with a windfall tax instead of cutting the welfare bill
Latest figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US financial regulator, show a total of £6.6billion of orders to sell sterling were outstanding last week – the highest number since March 2017.
Tory Shadow Chancellor Andrew Griffith described it as a ‘concerning vote of no- confidence in Andy Burnham’s Britain’, adding: ‘There may be ten days to the Budget but it seems some investors have made up their minds and are voting with their wallets. It shows a complete lack of faith in Labour’s economic policies.’
Sentiment against sterling – seen as a proxy for the British economy – is now even more negative among investors than it was after the Liz Truss mini-Budget sent the pound sinking towards parity with the dollar in 2022.
The amount of interest the Government pays on its £3trillion debt pile is also more than it was under former Tory PM Ms Truss.
A weaker pound makes exports cheaper, but it can also make holidays abroad more costly and fuel inflation by increasing the price of imports.
The Bank of England has so far resisted raising interest rates to curb higher inflation caused by the ongoing conflict in Iran, making the pound less attractive to investors than other currencies.
Apart from a raid on the banks’ profits, the Chancellor may also raise the amount of capital gains tax charged when assets such as buy-to-let homes or businesses are sold.
‘A budget that leans heavily on capital gains tax would deepen the fiscal quagmire and growth risks, while heavy borrowing could raise debt servicing costs further and drag the pound lower,’ said Matthew Ryan, of cross-border payments group Ebury.
The Treasury has been approached for comment.
