Publicly, Donald Trump has told his supporters to act like he is on the ballot, and claimed that he can be the difference-maker for Republicans in tough midterm contests.
But privately, the president has reportedly signaled to advisers close to him that his own actions during the first two years of his term may have cost his party dearly in the November elections.
Trump,’definitely feels like some of his decisions have led to the dynamics where he’s unpopular and things aren’t looking great for the midterms,’ one individual close to Trump admitted to the Washington Post.
Trump’s sobering realization has made him more intent on mitigating Republicans’ expected election losses, according to the Post, citing four people with knowledge of Trump’s recent comments.
The president’s fears may be grounded in reality, as new polling from NBC released Sunday showed that over half of Americans, 55 percent, believe that Trump’s policies have hurt the economy.
Per NBC, Trump’s overall approval rating is 41 percent, the lowest of his second term.
Trump has deployed his cash in key midterm states. No Going Back PAC Inc., which is connected to Trump’s MAGA Inc., has reserved more than $68 million for advertising.
One bright spot for Republicans in NBC’s poll is that Democrats only edge Republicans by five points in the battle for control of Congress, 50 percent to 45 percent, significantly smaller than the 12-point lead they had in the midterm 2018 election cycle.
President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally last week in Gastonia, North Carolina
Voters cast their ballots inside the Arlington County Courthouse as early voting begins in Virginia ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, in Arlington, Virginia, on September 18, 2026. Early voting for the November 3rd midterm elections got underway Friday in several states, beginning a process that will spread across most of the country in the coming weeks
NBC also noted that ‘Trump himself is a powerful motivating factor,’ as ‘more voters — including nearly half of independents — say they consider their vote a signal of opposition to the president than at any other time in three decades of NBC News polling before midterm elections.’
Most prognosticators expect Democrats to win back the US House of Representatives, as Republicans are struggling to bolster enthusiasm for congressional candidates and laboring to overcome voters’ concerns about the economy and the war in Iran.
The Senate will be tougher with battleground races in Maine, Ohio, Michigan and Alaska set to determine control of the chamber.
Numbers released this week for statewide races in Alaska and Texas in seats that Republicans currently hold showed the Democratic candidates pacing ahead.
An AARP poll in the Alaska Senate race released Thursday had Democrat Mary Peltola leading among all likely voters, polling at 46 percent to Republican Senator Dan Sullivan’s 41 percent.
In North Carolina, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is up by a staggering double digit margin over former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley.
A Carolina Journal poll released Thursday placed Cooper with a 15 point lead.
North Carolina’s last Democratic US Senator was Kay Hagan, who served from 2009 to 2015. But Cooper served for two terms as governor from 2017 to 2025, lending him strong familiarity in the state.
As messaging wars rage on in key states across the country, ballots are already being cast. Mail-in ballots have already been sent to voters in several states, and in-person early voting started in Virginia on Friday.
