A tropical cyclone travelling parallel with Australia’s east coast has a high likelihood of making landfall as a category three system.
Meteorologists are working overtime to predict what highly populated parts of Queensland will be impacted by Tropical Cyclone Alfred over the weekend.
As of midday on Wednesday, the system was sitting about 930km north-east of Mackay and 1,000km east north-east of Townsville.
Impacts are already being felt in Queensland with the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast to receive intensifying wind gusts and powerful waves.
The severity of the tropical cyclone will depend on whether it begins tracking west, towards the mainland, over the weekend.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s Dean Narramore said the cyclone is expected to intensify into a category three system overnight on Wednesday.
‘We are expecting to see the slow moving continue today, as it generally takes a southward direction later today and into tonight,’ he told the Courier Mail.
‘[That system] will remain well off the Queensland coast, and we could see it intensify into a category three system tonight into Thursday morning.’
Meteorologists have warned there’s a high chance Tropical Cyclone Alfred will make landfall in Queensland (pictured, a woman shields from the rain in Sydney)
Meteorologists are working overtime to predict what areas in Queensland will be impacted by Tropical Cyclone Alfred (pictured) over the weekend
The Bureau is continuing to monitor the cyclone’s movements and will update its track map forecast every six hours.
Mr Narramore emphasised the importance of residents in high-risk areas staying on top of alerts and forecasts into next week.
‘We’re expecting Tropical Cyclone Alfred to continue that southerly track as we move through Thursday and Friday, and then as we get into the weekend, there’s a range of scenarios on exactly where it will end,’ he said.
‘Some of those scenarios have it heading closer towards the Queensland coast, so towards the weekend and early next week, but still keeping it offshore, but it does get pretty close.’
The Global Forecast System (GFS) predicts Alfred will track west this weekend and make landfall in Central Queensland by Tuesday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model – often touted as one of the world’s best – expects the system to make landfall between Townsville and Bundaberg by Sunday.
Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino said there was ‘increasing uncertainty’ over where Alfred will travel after Thursday.
‘Some forecast models suggest that Alfred may track towards the west and get closer to the Queensland coast from the weekend into next week. Other models keep the system offshore,’ he said.
Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino said there was ‘increasing uncertainty’ over where Alfred will travel after Thursday (pictured, wet weather in Byron Bay)
The bureau is continuing to monitor the cyclone’s movements and will update its track map forecast every six hours (pictured is a Weatherzone map)
Sydney
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower in the outer west, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the afternoon. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day. Min 21. Max 29.
Friday: Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the afternoon. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting south to southeasterly during the afternoon. Min 21. Max 32.
Saturday: Cloudy. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon. Min 21. Max 29.
Melbourne
Thursday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower, most likely at night. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late evening. Min 17. Max 26.
Friday: Slight chance of a shower in the morning. Mostly sunny day. Light winds becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then tending southerly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon. Min 18. Max 26.
Saturday: Sunny. The chance of morning fog about the nearby hills. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening. Min 15. Max 26.
In lieu of reliable forecasts, meteorologists instead urged everyone in affected regions to keep up with the latest information
Brisbane
Thursday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the morning. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 20 km/h early in the morning then tending southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning. Min 21. Max 30.
Friday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening. Min 21. Max 30.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower, most likely in the morning. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening. Min 21. Max 30.
Perth
Thursday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the morning. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h tending southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening. Min 19. Max 29.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day. Min 18. Max 31.
Saturday: Sunny. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h tending south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the afternoon then tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening. Min 17. Max 32.
Some forecast models predict the cyclone will make landfall as early as Sunday, while others expect the cyclone to move further east, away from the mainland
Adelaide
Thursday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the evening. Winds east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the late morning then tending south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Min 17. Max 31.
Friday: Slight chance of a shower in the morning. Mostly sunny day. Light winds becoming southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then turning southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening. Min 19. Max 28.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then tending southeast to southwesterly during the afternoon. Min 15. Max 27.
Hobart
Thursday: Cloudy. Slight chance of a shower, most likely in the early morning. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending east to southeasterly in the morning then becoming light in the late evening. Min 15. Max 23.
Friday: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending westerly during the day then becoming light during the evening. Min 13. Max 22.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the evening. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning. Min 11. Max 23.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model expects the system to make landfall between Townsville and Bundaberg by Sunday
Canberra
Thursday: Partly cloudy. The chance of fog in the early morning. Slight chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. Light winds. Min 13. Max 34.
Friday: Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening. Min 15. Max 33.
Saturday: Cloud clearing. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening. Min 13. Max 34.
Darwin
Thursday: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds. Min 25. Max 33.
Friday: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds. Min 25. Max 33.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers. Light winds. Min 25. Max 34.
