Keir Starmer is about to be handed one final chance to save himself. Next week, Manchester mayor Andy Burnham will announce he has secured a route back to Parliament.
The final details are set to be ironed out over the coming days, but the deal is essentially done. ‘Andy has got the seat,’ an MP told me on Monday evening.
At which point, senior members of the Cabinet intend to present the Prime Minister with an offer he cannot refuse.
Or rather, an offer that he shouldn’t refuse if he wants to prevent his Government and party descending into open civil war.
Starmer will be told that if he wishes to remain in Downing Street, he should make a public statement declaring he will not seek to block Burnham’s return.
He will also be told to issue a private instruction to his supporters on Labour‘s ruling National Executive Committee that they must not veto Burnham’s selection.
Burnham will, in turn, be told he needs to issue his own public statement in which he declares that, if selected as a Labour candidate in any upcoming by-election, Sir Keir will be able to rely on his full support.
According to senior Labour sources, this plan has been christened ‘The Trojan Horse Strategy’. As one minister explained, ‘the objective is to try to stop everything falling apart after the local elections. There’s an incentive for Keir to buy it because it gives him some time. And there’s an incentive for Andy to go for it because once he’s back in Parliament, then he’s the heir apparent if and when Keir finally calls it a day. He can just pop up at the right moment and say, “OK, it’s time for a change.”‘
Keir Starmer will be told by senior members of the Cabinet that he should make a public statement declaring he will not seek to block Andy Burnham’s return to Parliament
Within the Cabinet, there is now widespread recognition that Starmer’s premiership is drawing to a close. Even his closest allies accept there is no prospect of him leading Labour into the next general election. And that a way has to be found to enable him to leave office with dignity.
By allowing the return of the North’s prodigal son, and framing it as a gesture of unity, the hope is that it will provide a breathing space in which Starmer’s enemies will temporarily sheathe their swords and allow the Prime Minister to set out an orderly timetable for the transition. It is a clever, pragmatic and workable plan. And as a result, is almost certainly doomed to fail.
First, there is the wilful blindness of Starmer himself. Those who have seen him in the past fortnight say he is genuinely committed to fighting to the death.
As one MP explained: ‘He’s angry. He thinks everyone’s let him down. His staff. His officials. The Cabinet. His MPs. His attitude is, “I don’t owe anyone anything. I’m going to look after myself now. If they want me, they’re going to have to come and get me.”‘
As another Labour grandee said: ‘He’s not daft. He knows the second Andy’s back, it’s over for him. It doesn’t matter how desperate things get. He’s only getting into Westminster over Keir’s dead body.’
Then there are the other leadership contenders. Angela Rayner still harbours her own ambition to be prime minister. Or more accurately, members of her inner circle harbour their own ambitions to seize control of Downing Street, and will do whatever is in their power to sabotage the prospects of Burnham and any other challengers.
Once Manchester mayor Andy Burnham can demonstrate he has a viable path to Westminster, it’s doubtful Starmer would even have the political capital necessary to sabotage his selection
Wes Streeting also fancies his chances, but recognises that if a contest is delayed much longer, his opportunity will have passed. Especially if it allows Burnham to make a triumphal return to Westminster.
Similarly, within the Cabinet, there are a number of aspirants who see this as their own moment to make a lunge for the crown. And again, they realise their prospects decline dramatically the moment the King of the North takes his seat on the green labour benches.
And then there is one final obstacle. Events. As one minister described it, ‘things are beyond the point of no return now. It’s all got a momentum of its own. If the results on Friday are anything like predicted, it will just tip everything over the edge.’
Some Cabinet ministers still believe that even at this late stage, Keir Starmer can be made to see sense.
They claim that once Andy Burnham can demonstrate he has a viable path to Westminster, it’s doubtful Starmer would even have the political capital necessary to sabotage his selection. Especially after the Gorton and Denton by-election ended in such a catastrophe for Labour.
But I suspect they are being overly optimistic. The Prime Minister is indeed nearing the end of his premiership. But at the moment, he seemingly has no desire to listen to reason.
Keir Starmer is going down. And he fully intends to take his Government, his party and his country with him.
