Abdul El-Sayed‘s lead in Michigan‘s crucial Senate race has shrunk to just two points among likely voters, as the Democrat prepares to face Republican Mike Rogers in a second televised debate tonight.
And his performance is everything, as the state of the race is seemingly a coin flip.
A new Marist poll puts El-Sayed ahead of Rogers 50 percent to 48 percent among voters most likely to cast ballots in November, a margin well within the survey’s 4.3-point margin of error.
The numbers offer a fresh warning for El-Sayed, whose advantage is considerably wider among registered voters, where he leads Rogers by seven points.
The two candidates will meet again tonight in a debate hosted by Detroit-area television station WXYZ, just two weeks after their first showdown descended into personal attacks, interruptions and accusations that continued even during a commercial break.
The latest Marist survey, conducted between October 15 and 18 among 1,185 registered voters, found that El-Sayed’s lead among likely voters has narrowed from seven points in the pollster’s September survey, when he led Rogers 51 percent to 44 percent.
Rogers has gained four points since that earlier survey, rising from 44 percent to 48 percent, while El-Sayed has slipped one point to 50 percent.
A new Marist poll puts Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Mike Rogers by 50 percent to 48 percent among voters most likely to cast ballots in November
During their first televised debate, El-Sayed and Rogers debated on topics including the war in Iran, the trade war, immigration and healthcare
Rogers has gained four points since that earlier survey, rising from 44 percent to 48 percent, while El-Sayed has slipped one point to 50 percent
El-Sayed is performing better among independents, leading Rogers by 50 percent to 44 percent among those likely to vote, according to Marist.
The survey also found that 51 percent of likely voters believe El-Sayed will win the race, compared with 44 percent who expect Rogers to emerge victorious.
The numbers set the stage for a second potentially explosive encounter between the candidates.
Rogers, a former Republican congressman, repeatedly challenged El-Sayed over his background, his medical credentials and his associations with individuals and organizations that Rogers linked to Islamist extremism.
At one point, Rogers raised questions about El-Sayed’s mother and her former employment with the Islamic American Relief Agency, an organization the US Treasury Department designated in 2004 for supporting terrorism.
El-Sayed’s mother was not charged with a crime.
The Democrat accused Rogers of exploiting his family background and Muslim faith to distract voters from issues such as the cost of living.
The exchanges became so heated that moderator Rick Albin interrupted the candidates: ‘I’d like to be a part of the debate, too.’
The arguments continued during a commercial break, with Albin later remarking that in 30 years of covering debates he had never seen candidates continue arguing off-air in that way.
El-Sayed also went on the offensive, accusing Rogers of using his time in public office to enrich himself and pointing to his property and financial dealings.
Rogers rejected the allegations and pushed back against El-Sayed’s attacks on his record.
The latest poll also found President Donald Trump with a net-negative standing in the state, with 42 percent of likely voters approving of his job performance and 57 percent disapproving.
