A shamed MP is on the brink of standing down from Parliament, which could clear a route for Andy Burnham to return to Westminster to challenge Sir Keir Starmer.
Andrew Gwynne, a former health minister who had the Labour whip removed in February last year, is expected to make an announcement on his future soon.
There are widespread reports he will quit the House of Commons after tying up a deal on his pension, which will spark a by-election in his Gorton and Denton constituency.
There has long been speculation that Mr Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, would contest a by-election in the North West in a bid to replace Sir Keir.
The 56-year-old, who was MP for Leigh between 2001 and 2017 before being elected to the mayoralty, has been a fierce critic of the Prime Minister.
He has repeatedly refused to rule out a future bid for the Labour leadership, amid claims Sir Keir could be challenged following his rocky first 18 months in No10.
But Mr Burnham would first have to be approved as Labour’s by-election candidate by the party’s ruling National Executive Committee, which is dominated by Starmer loyalists.
And, even if chosen to be Labour’s hopeful, he would still have to win a bitter by-election contest against Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
There has long been speculation that Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, could contest a by-election in the North West if he wanted to return to the Commons
Andrew Gwynne, a former health minister who had the Labour whip removed in February last year, is expected to make an announcement on his future soon
Senior Labour figures are said to be braced for an announcement from Mr Gwynne, who has been away from Parliament on sick leave.
It is reported that talks were held about Mr Gwynne taking medical retirement in February, so a by-election could be held on the same day as May’s local elections.
It is also said Mr Gwynne has now reached an agreement on his MP’s pension that would allow him to retire on medical grounds.
Mr Gwynne, lost the Labour whip last year after the emergence of offensive messages in a WhatsApp group.
He was sacked as a health minister and suspended from Labour, while he was also put under investigation by a parliamentary watchdog.
Allies of Mr Burnham last month told The Mail on Sunday he was poised to secure a deal to fight a by-election to return to the Commons.
This would then allow the former Cabinet minister, dubbed ‘The King of the North’, to formally launch a challenge against Sir Keir if he could rally the support of MPs.
But there is no guarantee that Mr Burnham would be chosen as Labour’s candidate in a by-election – as Starmer loyalists dominate Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) – or that he would go on to win a contest.
A loyalist Labour MP told the Daily Mail: ‘He absolutely will not get through an NEC panel.’
The Labour Party’s latest rule book states that directly-elected mayors, such as Mr Burnham, must ‘seek the express permission’ of party officials before trying to be nominated as a party candidate for a Westminster contest.
There are also suggestions that the NEC could opt for an all-female shortlist of by-election candidates, as the gender balance in the Parliamentary Labour Party has fallen below 50 per cent.
One Labour source said the cost of fighting a Manchester mayoral election would be another reason to stop Mr Burnham.
However, they said they would be ‘amazed’ if it was allowed to get to the point where he had to be blocked.
‘Someone needs to sit down and explain to Andy the challenges,’ the source said.
‘But if came to it, I think the NEC would block not least because of the money it would cost the party.’
Mr Burnham has refused to rule out a bid for the Labour leadership amid claims Sir Keir Starmer, pictured at Chequers today, could be challenged
Even if chosen to be Labour’s by-election candidate, Mr Burnham would still have to win a bitter by-election contest against Nigel Farage’s Reform UK
Mr Gwynne won his Gorton and Denton constituency with a 13,000 vote majority at the 2024 general election, ahead of second-placed Reform.
But Mr Farage’s party might now fancy their chances of winning the seat following a surge in their poll ratings since the general election, and a slump in Labour’s popularity.
One Labour veteran told the Daily Mail that Mr Burnham ‘has a lot of supporters in Parliament’.
They played down the prospect of the NEC blocking the Greater Manchester mayor from getting on the shortlist for a Commons seat.
‘It would look extremely weak to bar him from standing, so we don’t expect that to be a major hurdle,’ they added.
A senior Labour MP said the party’s deputy leader Lucy Powell was ‘pushing’ for a resolution in the Gwynne case because it would benefit her Manchester ally Mr Burnham.
‘Lucy is pushing this,’ the MP said. ‘The NEC could face a very tough decision… who do they prefer, Andy Burnham or Reform?
‘Will they back Burnham or will they get a different candidate in who might not win.’
Commons sources suggested the deal being mooted could see Mr Gwynne – who is only 51 – paid up until pension age, at which point he would receive a full Parliamentary pension.
That package could be worth around £1million, according to one insider.
There would also be questions over what happens to the long-running standards investigation into Mr Gwynne, and whether he would face any sanctions if found to have done something wrong.
In February last year, Mr Gwynne said he regretted making ‘badly misjudged’ comments and apologised ‘for any offence I’ve caused’.
The messages in a closed WhatsApp group chat with Labour figures based around Manchester reportedly included sexist, racist and anti-Semitic comments.
Mr Gwynne has previously denied that he was intending to vacate his Gorton and Denton seat any time soon.
Asked on BBC radio about Mr Gwynne stepping down and clearing the way for Mr Burnham in a by-election, Health Secretary Wes Streeting said on Thursday: ‘Andrew Gwynne was a member of my team in opposition and in Government.
‘I’m aware he’s had some very serious health challenges. And you know, for all of the other challenges he’s gone through and some of the difficulties he’s had, I wish him and his family well, and I hope he’s okay. His health has been a real challenge.
‘If indeed there is going to be a by-election, we need to make sure we’ve got a strong candidate, that we fight really hard to win that by-election, and we need our best candidates to come forward.
‘As to who that is, whether or not Andy will throw his hat into the ring, is for Andy to consider, and ultimately for party members to decide. But we need strong candidates.
‘I’ll just say about Andy, having just seen him just earlier this week, whether it’s in Government nationally, or whether it’s leading the city and the region locally, he makes a massive impact and makes a really big difference. He’s someone I’m proud to work with.’
In the days prior to Labour’s conference in Liverpool in September, Mr Burnham had suggested unhappy MPs were privately urging him to challenge the PM.
He then issued a fresh outburst against Sir Keir’s leadership in a fiery speech at a conference fringe event.
But – despite leaving the door open for a future leadership bid – Mr Burnham later backed away following a backlash against his posturing.
Cabinet ministers have not been shy in recent months to tell Mr Burnham to focus on his role as Greater Manchester mayor.
‘All of us in Government and in the Labour Party have a responsibility to focus on the day job and to get on with delivering for the British people,’ Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said in December.
And Business Secretary Peter Kyle said in September: ‘I think he [Mr Burnham] is doing an incredible job in Manchester at the moment, I think Manchester really needs him.
‘I love working with him in Manchester. It would be a shame for Manchester to lose him.’
Speaking virtually on an Institute for Government panel this week, Mr Burnham appeared to criticise the missions laid out by Sir Keir’s Government.
‘You’ve got to go to difficult missions as well, haven’t you?,’ he said.
‘The mission to fix social care, the mission to end the housing crisis, the mission to end the cost-of-living crisis.
‘I think people buy in when the mission is really clear and it’s right in front of them and they understand it. That’s an important part of it.’
But Mr Burnham also added: ‘The Government has made a lot of progress, and I applaud them for it.’
