S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Ghana’s long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings from ‘CCC+/C’ to ‘B-/B’ with a stable outlook, citing improved fiscal discipline, stronger exports, and a recovery in foreign reserves.
In a report released on November 7, 2025, the agency noted that rising gold and cocoa export volumes have boosted the cedi’s stability and increased foreign reserves to nearly $11 billion, up from $6.8 billion in 2024.
According to S&P, the upgrade reflects a combination of strengthening fiscal and external metrics for Ghana.
“The stable outlook balances the potential for stronger balance-of-payments performance and improvements in Ghana’s fiscal outcomes as a result of ongoing expenditure reforms against still-high debt-service costs, reform implementation risks, and Ghana’s sensitivity to terms of trade, such as gold and cocoa prices, which have been unusually favorable over the last year,” it stated.
Inflation is projected to remain below 10% by 2026 as the government enforces new fiscal rules, including a mandated 1.5% primary surplus and a debt ceiling targeting 45% of GDP by 2034.
However, despite the positive signals, S&P maintained a cautious tone with the stable outlook, citing several persistent vulnerabilities.
The body warned that risks remain from high debt-service costs, reform implementation challenges, and exposure to commodity price shocks.
“We could lower the rating on Ghana over the next 12-18 months if fiscal reform momentum stalled with Ghana recording wider budgetary deficits, underpinning a rise in public debt service costs, or straining the government’s ability to refinance maturing debt as it comes due,” it added.
The upgrade follows Ghana’s successful restructuring of $13.1 billion in Eurobonds and continued progress in addressing its remaining debt obligations.
What This Means for Ghana
The upgrade signals a renewed vote of confidence from global capital markets in Ghana’s macroeconomic recovery path.
According to the S&P, this means improved sovereign ratings may lower borrowing costs for the government and pave the way for better access to international capital markets.
Additionally, a more stable macro-environment (lower inflation, a stronger currency, rising reserves) improves predictability for business planning and investment.
“We could raise the rating in the next 12-18 months if Ghana consistently sustained fiscal deficits at lower levels, reducing debt service costs and strengthening its access to foreign financing while its external position continued to strengthen–including the accumulation of additional foreign currency reserves, for example,” it said.
The body further lauded the government, which took power in January 2025, for instituting new fiscal rules along with enhancements to public financial management.
“We also note that Ghana’s new government, which came to power in December 2024, is enacting policies to safeguard against fiscal slippages, which were frequent.
“This includes a mandated 1.5% of GDP primary surplus on an annual basis, for debt to be brought to 45% of GDP by 2034, as well as a proactive framework for correcting future fiscal deviations,” it noted.
Projections
According to S&P, Inflation is expected to remain below 10% in 2026 as monetary policy and the exchange rate have stabilised.
“We forecast Ghana’s inflation will remain under 10% from over 20% at the start of 2025, while the cedi has appreciated by about 30% compared with the U.S. dollar so far this year,” it concluded.
ID/AE
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