As much as Anthony Albanese and Labor resoundingly vanquished Peter Dutton at last night’s federal election, even defeating the opposition leader in his own seat, we can’t forget that every poll during the campaign made clear that voters weren’t impressed by the Labor government’s performance during its first term.
The thumping victory therefore isn’t an endorsement of the job Labor has done. It is a mandate to do better. The question is, will they?
On the other side of the spectrum the result certainly was a repudiation of the Liberal Party. They were the evil of two lessers when voters sized them up against the Labor government.
It looks like all the teals have been returned and the Coalition may not pick up a single seat from the Labor Party. Deep soul searching is ahead for the opposition – and they just lost their leader!
Many things contributed to Dutton’s demise: his personal unpopularity, the Donald Trump tariffs, the powerful Labor smear campaign against the opposition leader. And his policies certainly hurt. Plus we can’t ignore concerns about nuclear energy or the messy campaign by the Liberals.
But the main game is what does Labor do now? The first thing it must do is implement its election agenda. Handing out its rebates and tax cuts, also cutting 20 per cent of HECS debts and making TAFE education completely free. More funding for childcare and housing also need to be delivered.
The new money for Medicare will need to lift bulk billing rates substantially – because that’s what the PM promised it would do. Doctors groups have questioned how realistic that is.
There was plenty of money thrown around and lots of promises to do and not do various things. These commitments have hemmed Labor and the PM in for its second term, unless it is prepared to risk criticisms for straying from what was promised.
The new money for Medicare will need to lift bulk billing rates substantially – because that’s what the PM promised it would do
The narrow pledges and what’s been ruled out will certainly make it harder for them to do new things not already promised, such as get the country’s structural deficit under control for example.
And will the opposition be in much of a position to hold Labor to account in a second term? They’ve lost their leader, a swag of experienced MPs as well as up and coming MPs.
The opposition’s first task will be to find a new leader, but more on that later.
Not long after it became increasingly clear that Labor won last night’s election a Labor MP texted me that the PM should now be known as ‘Albo The Almighty’.
Interestingly, that same MP had been a critic of how Labor handled itself during its first term. Concerned about the lack of reform, the state of the economy and the decision to lose the first half of Labor’s first term to unsuccessfully fighting for an Indigenous voice to parliament.
But winners are grinners and the victor is invariably hailed. That is the Prime Minister.
Albo was weakened by his poor performance throughout most of Labor’s first term. He started with significant standing having defeated Scott Morrison, but that faded as the rigours of government soon set in. Electorally at least Albo did always say he wanted to improve his standing closer to the election when it matters.
The surge in support for the opposition prior to the campaign was a mirage. It was based on protest and profound disappointment in the performance of the Albanese government, not a desire to kick it out after just one term in power.
Albo was weakened by his poor performance throughout most of Labor’s first term
Something that hasn’t happened since 1931, one of many reasons why I predicted Labor would win this election, albeit not by the margin they have.
Labor’s two party preferred vote may end up being the largest in its history, despite a near record low primary vote. How Australia votes is changing.
The repudiation of the Voice wasn’t a sign of things to come for Labor more generally. It was a response to the way Labor prosecuted that campaign. It needs to learn from that and not make such mistakes in a second term, thereby sapping it of the authority it needs pursue serious reforming policies.
What will Albo do with his new found authority? His majority is no longer wafer thin. His Senate standing will improve too, making it easier to pass legislation. Although to be sure the Labor Party will still need to deal with the Greens.
The tariffs issue might have helped Labor dominate this election campaign as much as it has, but if those same tariffs remain in place it will make managing the Aussie economy in Labor’s second term harder.
Especially without improvements to productivity to drive growth and to help fix declining standards of living.
Don’t forget, Australians are worse off now than they were three years ago, notwithstanding the pro-Labor results last night.
If these economic indicators don’t improve in the coming three years the next election campaign could turn very differently. We have seen how volatile modern elections can be, especially at state level but now federally too.
Given he has newfound authority, will the PM put pressure on the factions to give him a new look cabinet?
Given he has newfound authority, will the PM put pressure on the factions to give him a new look cabinet? Will he be promoting the likes of Andrew Charlton or Dan Mulino – who have much needed economic credentials (both have economics PhD’s from world leading universities)? People who know how to craft a reform agenda that has been so lacking on both sides of the major party divide.
Judging by Albo’s victory speech, he’s clearly more interested in spending money than finding ways to ensure that when government does that it isn’t spending borrowed money. Reform needs to come first so that spending is affordable and sustainable.
Currently it simply is not.
I sincerely hope that tonight’s thumping Labor victory is not interpreted as just an endorsement of the unsustainable idea that social benefits are at the core of what government does. They matter to Australian egalitarianism, but they need to be part of a mix, including policies to imbed fiscal prudence.
Hopefully we are not tonight administering the last rites of strong fiscal responsibility in this country with both this result and the reaction on the podium by the PM. Because there really have been few signs on either side of the major party divide of taking on the fiscal challenges that will give future generations the prosperity of the past.
The party that spent more won, but both parties promised to spend more than the national finances can afford. Labor succeeded in part because it demonised the risk that the other mob might institute cuts, which in fact they didn’t have the courage to even announce much less ever enact.
The PM’s speech last night was big on the idea that positivity won out in this election. Hope over fear. Kindness over nastiness. In fact, the reverse is true. Labor’s scare campaign was a key feature of its win.
Meanwhile, what the Coalition does next will require it to go into its shell for a period of time as it tries to work out what its core values are and how best to rebuild.
Without Dutton’s presence there is a strong chance the opposition descends into blood-letting
Get ready for Coalition bloodletting – and a new leader
The next leader might be a conservative choice – choosing either the deputy leader Sussan Ley or shadow treasurer Angus Taylor. Or there could be a radical decision to pick a younger member of the team who represents generational change, such as social conservative shadow defence spokesman Andrew Hastie.
There are other candidates who might emerge, such as Dan Tehan out of Victoria, but one of the challenges for the Liberal Party is that the last three years were all about Peter Dutton.
He maintained party discipline and was a cut above his colleagues who were left in the aftermath of the previous Coalition government.
Without Dutton’s presence there is a strong chance the opposition descends into blood-letting.
It could lead to potential infighting between the Coalition partners, especially if a moderate finds their way into the Liberal Party leadership and decides, just maybe, the teals are right about climate change and a few other moderate policy positions as well.
Could NSW MP Julian Leeser be a bolter to challenge for the leadership? He resigned as shadow AG and Indigenous affairs spokesperson when Dutton opposed the voice. He’s one of the last senior moderates left in the parliamentary Liberal Party, assuming he can retain his Sydney seat of Berowra.
Liberals traditionally tear themselves apart in opposition. They did it in the 1980s and again after the 2007 election defeat when they cycled through three opposition leaders within its first term in opposition.
The next leader might be a conservative choice – choosing either the deputy leader Sussan Ley or shadow treasurer Angus Taylor (pictured)
It’s hard not to think wilderness years are ahead for the Coalition.
Albo must decide whether he will get more ambitious
The PM is certainly a confidence player. He can get testy when things don’t go his way. He likes to surround himself with those who reinforce his opinions rather than challenge them. It has always been his way.
After last night’s results Albo’s confidence will be sky high. Let’s see if such surety leads to a better government with bolder ambitions in a second term. Don’t hold your breath.
Both Bob Hawke and John Howard really only properly began their ambitious agendas in their second terms. Treasurer Jim Chalmers was asked about whether Albo’s government would be more ambitious courtesy of the size of last night’s win while sitting on the ABC’s election panel, right after the PM spoke.
The answer was a clear no. He said the Senate would make that hard and straying from the election policies laid out (mostly just more spending) wasn’t on Labor’s agenda.
So ambition will most likely remain absent, unless Albo intervenes and decides winning isn’t enough for his legacy. At 62 years of age Albo might not be around for that much longer, notwithstanding the size of his win.
That said, it will now be his choice to make. Will he serve a full term and seek a third at over 65 years of age? You can’t rule it out after last night’s results.
Let’s hope, however long Albanese sticks around, he decides to emulate Hawke and Howard and turn Labor’s second term into one that gets remembered for reforms that set up future prosperity. Rather than simply enacting an election agenda that will continue to drain the national finances and rack up more debt.
Such promises might have helped get him and Labor re-elected, but they won’t help the country get back on track.
