Only 1.5 per cent of state school places may be unfilled in some areas, leaving few options for pupils moving from private schools due to Labour’s VAT.
New statistics for 2023-24, the latest available, show many local authorities had less than 5 per cent of spare places across their schools.
If the situation this year is similar, it would mean parents priced out of private schools could not be left with much choice.
Typically, schools with extra places tend to be less popular and not as high-achieving, and may not necessarily be near families’ homes.
The data, published by the Department for Education (DfE), shows a number of councils had low spare capacity at both primary and secondary level.
At primary level, Coventry only had 1.5 per cent of its places free, while Wolverhampton had 3.1 per cent, Bolton had 3.3 per cent, and Leicester had 4.8 per cent.
At secondary level, Rutland had 3.5 per cent free, while Kirklees and Sutton both had 4.1 per cent and Harrow had 4.3 per cent.
The figures were for all year groups, so even if there were places available at a school, they may not be available for a specific age.
Only 1.5 per cent of state school places were unfilled in some areas in 2023/24
However, the figures for unfilled places may be different this year, because places fluctuate annually and councils receive extra funding to create new places if needed.
Labour imposed VAT on private school fees from January, with Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson promising the money raised will pay for 6,500 new state school teachers.
Some parents using private schools say higher fees due to VAT will be unaffordable for them.
Estimates on how many pupils will be pushed into the state sector by Labour’s policy have varied.
One of the more conservative predictions came from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which said it could be up to 40,000 – or seven per cent of the private school population.
Councils are under a legal obligation to provide every child a place that needs one, but do not have to give parents their first choice school.
It means if parents cannot find a place near their home they may have to drive their children to schools further away.
The new data also showed that nationally, 24 per cent of secondary schools were operating at or in excess of capacity in 2023/24 – up from 15 per cent in 2015/16 and the highest proportion since 2009/10.
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson said VAT on private school fees will pay for 6,500 new state school teachers
This reflects a baby boom post-2010, with that population bulge now moving into secondaries.
In addition, schools for pupils with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) appear to be over-subscribed.
The data showed 8,000 more secondary school pupils were on roll in special schools than there was official capacity for.
It revealed that although there were only 92,000 places, there were 100,000 pupils.
However, Labour yesterday announced that 10,000 new school places will be created, to address the growing need.
The Department for Education has been contacted for comment.
