With Texas quarterback Arch Manning’s stock plummeting amid an up-and-down 5-2 season, NFL scouts have now set their sights on Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker as the potential first quarterback to be picked in this April’s draft.
A transfer from North Texas who never started a single game at quarterback in high school, Mestemaker’s Cowboys are also 5-2, but unlike Manning, he has been efficient under center. Not only has he completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 2,326 yards and 20 touchdowns, but Mestemaker has surrendered only six interceptions and eight sacks this year.
Manning’s seven interceptions aren’t atrocious, but he has taken 19 sacks this season, while passing for just 1,507 yards.
So, while Peyton and Eli Manning’s nephew is averaging 215 passing yards for a middling Texas offense, Mestemaker has a 332-yard-per-game clip for a unit that ranks third in the country.
Other quarterbacks have disappointed as well, including South Carolina‘s LaNorris Sellers and LSU’s Sam Leavitt. As a result, 17 out of 25 NFL scouts and executives told ESPN that they believe the 20-year-old Mestemaker will be the first player chosen at the position in April’s NFL Draft.
‘Mestemaker seems like the only real choice at this point,’ one scout told ESPN’s Pete Thamel.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning (16) celebrates a win against Mississippi in Athens
Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker (17) walks to the stadium before a game
Mestemaker has a 332-yard-per-game clip for an offensive unit that ranks third in the country
‘The size, the body type and arm strength are the things that stood out to me right away,’ another scout said of the 6ft 3in Austin native. ‘He’s got arm talent, power and accuracy.’
Thamel has now conducted this poll in August and October, eliciting vastly different results between the two surveys.
In August, 14 respondents felt that the first quarterback picked would be Oregon’s Dante Moore, who now appears to be lost for the season due to a concussion. Meanwhile, seven respondents thought the honor would go to Manning, while Sellers and Leavitt received two and one votes, respectively.
Before the season, nobody was envisioning Mestemaker as a real draft consideration, but things have changed dramatically over the first two months. Now only Notre Dame’s CJ Carr (four votes), Miami’s Darian Mensah (three) and Moore (one) are receiving consideration in Thamel’s poll.
‘Before the season, this class was going to rival 1983,’ one scout told ESPN, referring to the five quarterbacks drafted in the first round that year. ‘But there’s been a lot of moving parts and Arch has fallen. It’ll be interesting to see who resurfaces.’
Mestemaker remains relatively inexperienced but should have 27 career starts by the end of 2026 thanks to a successful season under center at North Texas in 2025. He then followed head coach Eric Morris from North Texas to Oklahoma State, where Mestemaker has remained one of the top statistical quarterbacks in the country despite facing tougher competition.
Mestemaker remains relatively inexperienced, but should have 27 career starts by the end of 2026 thanks to a successful season under center at North Texas in 2025
CJ Carr is another potential options for NFL teams looking for a quarterback in the first round
While Mestemaker struggled in a season-opening loss to Tulsa, he outshined Moore in a Week 2 upset of Moore’s Oregon Ducks and may have been even better in a loss to No. 20 Houston on October 17.
And unlike 2025, when Mestemaker mostly stayed inside the pocket for the Mean Green, he’s developed as a runner with the Cowboys, gaining 109 yards and a touchdown on just six carries against the Ducks.
Of course, both Manning, a redshirt junior, and Mestemaker could return to school in 2027, leaving the pair as the favorites to be taken first overall in 2028.
According to one scout, the wildcard in 2027 is Brendan Sorsby, the former University of Cincinnati quarterback who tried and failed to transfer to Texas Tech after admitting to gambling on college football. Sorsby’s attempt to enter the NFL’s supplemental draft was thwarted but he has continued training and remains a possibility for the first round of the 2027 NFL Draft.
‘People are almost forgetting about Sorsby,’ a veteran scout told ESPN. ‘There’s no question he can be a first-rounder. We’ll see how that all goes. He’s got to go to an all-star game and show the talent, excel during that week and answer all the questions. It’s all about how he handles it.’
