Net migration is expected to have tumbled in new figures being released today – as Tories claim their crackdown was working.
Official data covering the year to June is widely predicted to show a sharp reduction on the 685,000 recorded across 2023.
That was down from an eye-watering peak of 764,000 in 2022.
The previous dip was driven by fewer foreign students arriving as well as more people emigrating.
And the latest update will reflect more restrictions on students and migrants bringing family members to live with them.
The scale of the inflow is poised to spark a fresh political row, after Kemi Badenoch used a major speech last night to insist the Tories would not allow Britain to be treated like a ‘hotel’ for migrants.
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The scale of the inflow is poised to spark a fresh political row, after Kemi Badenoch used a major speech last night to insist the Tories would not allow Britain to be treated like a ‘hotel’ for migrants
Warning that immigration levels are ‘a world away from where we need to be’, she promised a ‘strict numerical cap’ on arrivals, with only those able to make a ‘substantial and clear contribution’ to Britain allowed in.
She will review Britain’s membership of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and the continuation of Labour‘s Human Rights Act, which have both been blamed for blocking past attempts to get tough.
The Tory leader said there would be ‘zero tolerance for foreign criminals remaining in the UK’.
Tory ministers originally predicted their changes would cut numbers by 300,000, but the full effect will not be seen until next year’s figures.
The Treasury’s OBR watchdog has forecast that net annual migration will subside to 315,000 a year over the ‘medium term’.
Touring broadcast studios this morning, Home Office minister Seema Malhotra declined to say what level of net migration would be acceptable.
Ms Malhotra repeatedly dodged, insisting policy must be based on ‘a credible and serious plan’ and the Government should not ‘just pull figures out of the air’.
She told BBC Breakfast: ‘My point is this, we want to see net migration coming down, but we have to do so in a way that is tackling the causes of net migration, because if much of net migration has been driven by recruiting workers from overseas, you also have to look at what the impact on the economy would be.’
The OBR assessment published last month pointed to Home Office visa data covering the second quarter of 2024 showing a ‘sharp’ fall.
The OBR assessment published last month pointed to Home Office visa data covering the second quarter of 2024 showing a ‘sharp’ fall
‘This largely reflects government restrictions coming into force in the first half of this year, which we now expect to have a slightly larger impact than we anticipated in March,’ the report released alongside the Budget said.
‘We judge the stronger outturn and larger policy impact to be broadly offsetting, and therefore project net migration will continue to fall in line with our March forecast.’
In her first major policy speech as Conservative Party leader yesterday, Mrs Badenoch said it was time to stop being ‘squeamish’ about the negative impacts of mass immigration and act to halt it.
She said that the UK could not cope with the ‘millions want to come’ to this country.
