Mussa Dankwah is the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed, Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, has won the National Democratic Congress (NDC) parliamentary primaries for the Ayawaso East Constituency, defying pre-election projections by Global InfoAnalytics.
The tightly contested primaries, held on Saturday, February 7, 2026, was conducted to select the NDC’s candidate for the upcoming Ayawaso East by-election following the death of the late MP, Mahama Naser Toure.
Provisional results from the two voting centres showed:
Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed – 431 votes
Hajia Amina Adam – 399 votes
Mohammed Ramme – 88 votes
Dr Yakubu Azindow – 45 votes
Mohammed Najib Sani – 1 vote
Prior to the election, Global InfoAnalytics had projected Hajia Amina Adam as the frontrunner with around 54% support, while Baba Jamal’s backing was expected to remain below 38%. However, the actual results proved significantly different.
Following the announcement, Mussa Dankwah admitted that his predictions missed the mark. On his official Facebook page, he explained the deviations, noting that Baba Jamal outperformed his model by 4%, while Hajia Amina underperformed by 9%, exceeding the margin of error.
The primaries drew attention not only for the competitive nature of the race but also amid discussions about campaign conduct.
Baba Jamal’s team distributed 32-inch television sets and boiled eggs to delegates, gestures he described as acts of goodwill rather than attempts to influence voting outcomes.
In his victory speech, Baba Jamal called for unity within the party, stressing that his win was a collective one. “This victory is for all members of the NDC in Ayawaso East. Together, we will work to retain this seat in the by-election,” he said.
The NDC now prepares for the by-election, with Baba Jamal leading its campaign in a constituency widely regarded as a key stronghold for the party.
Analysts suggest that the primaries’ outcome, alongside the polling discrepancies, underscores the unpredictable nature of party politics and the influence of local dynamics on election results.
