Databank Research has stated that the country’s fiscal economy would remain firm in 2026, though execution risks remain
It is therefore revising its year-end baseline projection of the country’s fiscal deficit (commitment basis) from 2.5% (GH¢40 billion) of Gross Domestic Product to 2.2% (GH¢34 billion).
According to the research arm of Databank Group, this adjustment reflects the sovereign’ GH¢35.1 billion underspend in the first half of 2026 and a total expenditure cap of GH¢302 billion, which offset a GH¢1.3 billion revenue shortfall.
“This disciplined posture marks a structural break from historical overshooting, signalling that the sovereign’s “Commitment Authorisation” framework is effectively curbing institutional waste”, it adedd.
Primary Surplus to End 2026 at 1.5% of GDP
It maintained a primary surplus forecast of 1.5% of GDP, supported by GH¢6.9 billion interest savings and a stable inflation backdrop.
“The transition to the non-financing IMF [International Monetary Fund) Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) and a 65% reduction in gold-reserve implementation costs (from 14.5% to 5.0%) under the MoU between the Ministry of Finance and GoldBod provide further support for fiscal discipline. These gains, alongside the GH¢7.1 billion already paid to power producers, reinforce the government’s capacity to sustain energy sector stability through the fiscal year, barring any major global systemic shocks”.
In addition, Databank Research said the outlook is supported by the Jubilee drilling campaign, which has lifted production to 95,000 barrels of oil per day amid favourable global prices.
“Supported by strong T-bill [treasury bills] demand and export proceeds from oil surpluses, we believe the sovereign is well positioned to exceed its GHS30bn Sinking Fund target by the end of the year”, it concluded.
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