The Farrer by-election is looming as a major political humiliation for the Coalition, with One Nation in serious contention to win its first federal lower house seat.
Voters in the sprawling south-west NSW electorate headed to the polls on Saturday to replace ousted former Liberals leader Sussan Ley who had held the seat since 2001.
Farrer takes in a vast rural stretch of NSW, including Albury, Griffith and Deniliquin, and has been held by the Liberal and National parties since it was created in 1949.
The 12-candidate ballot is widely seen as a four-way race between One Nation’s David Farley, independent Michelle Milthorpe, Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski and Nationals candidate Brad Robertson.
But the real contest appears to have narrowed sharply, with recent polling suggesting Farley and Milthorpe are fighting at the front of the field.
One poll put One Nation on 30.9 per cent and Milthorpe on 30 per cent, ahead of the combined Liberal and National vote on 23.2 per cent.
Milthorpe won 20 per cent of the primary vote at the 2025 federal election and finished with 43.8 per cent after preferences, while Ley recorded 43.4 per cent of the primary vote – her worst result in Farrer since she first won the seat.
Two major firsts are looking feasible to become reality in this by-election.
Since Labor chose not to run a candidate in the by-election this might be the first time in history that neither major political party will make the final two-candidate preferred count at a federal election.
A One Nation victory would similarly deliver Pauline Hanson her party’s first ever federal lower house seat.
By-election becomes a two-horse race between One Nation’s David Farley and Independent Michelle Milthorpe
The Farrer by-election is looming as a major political humiliation for the Coalition, with One Nation in serious contention to win its first federal lower house seat.
Voters in the sprawling south-west NSW electorate headed to the polls on Saturday to replace ousted former Liberal leader Sussan Ley who had held the seat since 2001.
Farrer takes in a vast rural stretch of NSW, including Albury, Griffith and Deniliquin, and has been held by the Liberal and National parties since it was created in 1949.
The 12-candidate ballot is widely seen as a four-way race between One Nation’s David Farley, independent Michelle Milthorpe, Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski and Nationals candidate Brad Robertson.
But the real contest appears to have narrowed sharply, with recent polling suggesting Farley and Milthorpe are now leading the field.
One poll put One Nation on 30.9 per cent and Milthorpe on 30 per cent, ahead of the combined Liberal and National vote on 23.2 per cent.
Polls have closed and counting is underway
The Australian Electoral Commission has begun counting ballots and will conduct a two-candidate preferred count between independent Michelle Milthorpe and David Farley.
Results are expected in the coming hours from all 74 election-day polling booths and 11 pre-poll centres that have been open over the past two weeks.
Early voting has been significant, with about 47,000 ballots cast at pre-poll centres.
Coalition bracing for loss
Coalition sources say the atmosphere in Farrer has been ‘grim’ throughout both pre-polling and polling day, with Liberals and Nationals alike preparing for a likely defeat.
A loss would make history, marking the first time the seat is held by anyone outside the Liberal or National parties.
Former Opposition Leader Sussan Ley had represented Farrer since 2001, but resigned earlier this year after being replaced by Angus Taylor.
Before Ley’s victory, Farrer was held by former Nationals leader Tim Fischer, who resigned before the 2001 election.
Ley then won the seat for the Liberals, defeating the Nationals candidate.
Photos from the polls
One Nation’s David Farley, Liberal Leader Angus Taylor, Deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume and Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe are all seen arriving at the polls to place their votes.
One Nation closes in on Farrer as candidates make last-ditch effort to swing Aussie voters
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Farrer by-election live: Polls officially close as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation hopes to win first ever federal lower house seat
