Twelve years ago, on the afternoon of Thursday May 16, 2013, Nigel Farage attempted to hold a press conference in the Canon’s Gait pub on Edinburgh’s Royal Mile.
What followed was a darkly unpleasant farce as protestors tried to silence the then UKIP leader. First, the pub manager called time on the press conference when angry protestors in the street outside began screaming abuse. Forced to leave the premises, Mr Farage was rejected by a first taxi driver then turfed out his cab by a second.
Eventually police ushered the politician back into the pub, there to enjoy a pint before he was whisked away in a riot van.
Mr Farage’s flying visit to Edinburgh, ostensibly to launch the party’s campaign in the Holyrood parliamentary constituency of Aberdeen Donside, was perfectly useful to both him and those protesting his presence in the capital.
Footage of Mr Farage being hounded by a genuinely angry mob only bolstered his argument that the left is dangerous. Viewed through a different lens, footage of a Little Englander being shown the door by defiant Scottish nationalists played well to an audience of those then campaigning for a Yes vote in the following year’s independence referendum.
Back in 2013, the idea that Mr Farage might make some kind of breakthrough into Scottish politics seemed laughable. Yesterday’s local election results showed the joke was on the doubters.
Nigel Farage was escorted by police officers as he left the Cannons Gait pub in 2013 as protestors blocked the path of the taxi that had arrived to pick him up
Ironically, the populist easy-answers-to-difficult-questions approach deployed by Mr Farage in England mirrored that of then First Minister, Alex Salmond. The SNP may continue to declare their abhorrence of Mr Farage’s politics, but both have succeeded by creating bogeymen against whom only they can defend the electorate. The same dissatisfaction with politics that drove millions of English voters to back UKIP drove many Scots towards the SNP.
Now leader of the Reform Party, Mr Farage continues to occupy the minds of Scotland’s self-styled progressive politicians.
A couple of weeks ago, First Minister John Swinney convened a meeting of political and civic leaders where all agreed that the sort of right-wing populism espoused by Mr Farage was a bad thing.
All reports of the meeting suggest it was a pointless exercise in hand-wringing where various bromides about kindness and inclusivity were delivered by attendees who felt compelled to be there.
On the face of things, Nigel Farage doesn’t present a real and present danger to the electoral chances of either John Swinney or his closest challenger for the role of First Minister, Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar. Rather, he is a useful bogeyman for both; his presence in our national debate an all-purpose warning against voting this way or that.
But things change. For many decades, the SNP lingered on the fringes of Scottish politics. Now, the nationalists dominate.
Mr Farage has become a ‘useful bogeyman’ for Labour and the SNP, writes Euan McColm
Shouldn’t we, at the very least, concede the possibility (perhaps even the likelihood) that Nigel Farage will build enough support to make a significant impact on Scottish politics?
In elections in England on Thursday, Reform returned a fifth MP, won two regional mayoralties, and picked up dozens of new council seats.
Mr Farage’s party might not yet have reached such levels of support in Scotland but a recent poll by Survation placed the party in third place, behind the SNP and Labour, in voting intentions for next year’s Holyrood election.
That polling tells the Scottish Conservatives they have quite a job to do in tackling a party claiming their place on their right.
But it should also be a warning to Mr Swinney and those in attendance at his grand photo-opportunity.
Mr Farage’s brand of politics has never been as unpopular as the SNP would have us believe. Despite endless nationalist rhetoric about Scots being above the politics of the Eurosceptic right, UKIP won a Scottish seat at the 2014 European parliamentary election. And there were many, particularly older, SNP members who backed Brexit on the grounds that independence should mean independence from all institutions beyond Scotland’s borders.
A recent poll placed Reform in third place in Scotland – behind the SNP and Labour
Both the SNP and Labour know who these voters are and, in many cases, to what extent they might be persuaded to change their vote.
What these parties don’t yet know is the extent to which Mr Farage might be able to attract younger voters.
The old divides of left and right, unionist and nationalist are less important to younger than older voters. Yes, strict ideologies – for example, the demands of trans activists – can still hold great power but younger voters are less likely to read a manifesto than they are to pick and mix the policies they support.
Last weekend, my 17-year-old daughter sat on the sofa, letting me hear snippets of songs from her most recent playlist. It was all over the place, in a good way.
She clicked from Led Zeppelin to Boney M to Metallica to Lana Del Rey to Dexys Midnight Runners. In common with other teenagers, she finds her music via Tik-Tok and Instagram reels.
This is how younger people get much of their political information, too.
A recent survey for the John Smith Centre, based at Glasgow University, found that almost two thirds of people aged 16-29 would consider backing an independent candidate.
An anti-extremist summit called by Mr Swinney was focused on politicians and policies that most people do not consider extreme, writes Euan McColm
That poll of 2,000 people across the UK showed clear evidence of a generational shift in the way voters engage with politics. There is little underlying loyalty to or close sense of identity with the main parties.
Instead, younger voters will happily take a little bit of this from here and a little of that from there.
Eddie Barnes, Director of the Centre, says: ‘The youngest voters in Britain are increasingly turning away from the established political parties and looking to alternatives, a trend reflected in many European democracies.
‘The poll results put Britain’s mainstream parties on notice: if an election were held tomorrow, the Labour Party would still attract the largest share of young voters – about 30 per cent – but two non-traditional parties – the Green Party and Reform UK – would collectively draw an equal share, with roughly 15 per cent of youth voting for each.
‘A new political landscape is emerging, shaped by young voters in search of alternatives.’
The First Minister’s peculiar anti-extremist summit had one central flaw. Mr Swinney was focused on politicians and policies that most people do not consider extreme.
The views of English and Scottish voters are closely aligned on immigration and the First Minister should be careful that he does not end up pushing away potential SNP voters who believe in some of what Mr Farage says.
One veteran SNP strategist says the First Minister risks alienating supporters who hold conservative views on immigration.
‘We’ve got plenty of voters who agree with Farage on some things. We’ve even got voters who agree with Tommy Robinson – every party does. We’ve got to be careful we don’t confuse Farage with the real hard right like Robinson.
‘We’ve got an obvious case in favour of immigration – Scotland needs more people – but we can’t just bludgeon voters with that when they’re responding to something Farage says about health.’
John Swinney, of course, has a personal interest in Nigel Farage being seen as beneath contempt. Current polling suggests that the SNP leader will fall short of winning an overall majority at next year’s Holyrood election and that Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, and Reform could have sufficient MSPs to form a Unionist majority.
Mr Swinney would like it to be known now that anyone doing any deals at any time with any party connected to Nigel Farage is a rotter.
Not that Mr Farage will have the slightest concern about deals at Holyrood. Rather, he will be looking at the prospect of Scots sending 15 or more Reform members to Holyrood with absolute glee.
Mr Farage has been a disrupter in both the European and Westminster parliaments. Next year, a number of his proxies will bring that brand of politics to Holyrood.
If Mr Farage so chooses, he will find plenty of locations in Scotland to recreate those ugly scenes on the Royal Mile 12 years ago. He will just as easily find places where Scots will stop him and ask for selfies.
In common with US President Donald Trump, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and the late Alex Salmond, Nigel Farage kicks away the boundaries of what it is acceptable for politicians to say. He knows what buttons to push to wind up opponents and he manages, baffling though this may be to many of his opponents, to strike a chord with voters with traditional loyalties from across the political spectrum.
This ability to connect should, says one former SNP staffer, give pause for thought for John Swinney. as Farage’s party has the ability yo ‘hurt’ the Nationalists.
‘There are voters who’ll go SNP or Labour in the constituency next year and Reform on the regional list. We can’t just say Reform are hard right and think they’ll go away. We share voters with them.’
One area where Reform is expected to focus its regional vote strategy next year is gender. While the SNP and Scottish Labour have angered voters with their willingness to acquiesce to the demands or irrational trans activists, Reform – in common with the Conservatives – has maintained the mainstream view that people cannot literally change sex and that a woman is an adult human female.
I would be astonished if Reform’s election literature for Holyrood 2026 did not included a simple message along the lines of Donald Trump’s “Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you”.
When Mr Farage was hounded out of Edinburgh in 2013, he seemed pure pantomime villain. All these years later, he’s an MP with the potential to become Prime Minister and the power to shake up Scottish politics.
Nigel Farage won’t stand for Holyrood next year but his presence will linger over every debate.
