- Democrats’ early voting advantage dwindles compared to years prior
- It suggests Republicans are listening to Trump telling them to vote early
As early voting wraps, the statistics of those who already cast their ballots are raising red flags for Kamala Harris‘ campaign – especially in some battleground swing states.
Black North Carolinians who already cast their ballots this year are underperforming compared to the 2020 presidential race, which signals concerns for the vice president’s campaign as she relies on this demographic to flip the red-leaning state.
So far, the early voting electorate there has skewed older and whiter compared to the overall voter registration in the state.
And in Nevada – another battleground – voters in rural areas of the state are showing up in numbers that signal the left-leaning state could flip red on November 5.
Republicans have a 40,500-ballot lead in Nevada as of Wednesday evening, which is 5.2 percent more than Democrats in Nevada.
Alarm bells are going off for Vice President Kamala Harris as Republicans show up in droves for early voting
As of Thursday, nearly 60 million Americans have already cast their ballots whether during in-person early voting or by mail-in ballot. This means that around one-third of the total number of registered voters in the U.S. have already voted before Election Day.
North Carolina is the most red-leaning swing state in the 2024 election and Harris’ campaign thought they could win it if black voters turned out to elect the first minority women to the Oval Office.
But some Democratic strategists think for Harris to be competitive to flip North Carolina, there needs to be a turnout of 20 percent black voters.
As of Wednesday, the number of black voters who cast early ballots in North Carolina was at about 18 percent.
Early voter data in the state shows that women and suburban voters are so far outperforming the other demographics in North Carolina, which could be a good sign for Harris.
Over on the other side of the country in Nevada, Republican rural voters are far exceeding voter turnout expectations and are outperforming Democrats in the left-leaning swing state.
More than 856,000 ballots for mail-in and early voting were posted as of Wednesday night – meaning 42 percent of registered voters have already cast their ballots in Nevada.
And the GOP turnout in rural areas of the state is giving the party an advantage with Republicans having a 5.2 percent lead over Democrats.
Voters wait in line to cast their ballots during early voting in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina on October 25, 2024 as reports emerged that black voters are not turning out in the same numbers as yaars prior
Democrats were only able to pull ahead in Clark County, which is where Las Vegas is, by a measly 10 points.
And in Pennsylvania, seen as potentially the most important swing state, the number of Republicans who cast their ballots in early voting has surged.
Democrats maintain a slight edge in terms of early voting nationwide by a 41 percent to 40 percent margin, according to an NBC News tracking.
In previous elections, Democrats have been much more likely to vote early as Republicans turn up on Election Day.
Registered Democrats led by 7.5 percentage points during early voting in 2016. That nearly doubled to a 14.3-point gap in the midst of a global pandemic in the 2020 election.
As of Monday, early voting among Democrats was just 3.8 points higher than Republicans.
