AFTER months of campaigning ballots were cast yesterday in the Dublin Central and Galway West by-elections.
The by-elections were triggered by the resignation of former Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe and election of Catherine Connolly as President.
While the results of the contests will not impact significantly on the Dáil’s arithmetic they will provide crucial insights into the mood of the electorate.
As the boxes open this morning here are the key things to look out for: Dublin Central:
Dublin Central:
1) The Sinn Féin vote
The vote in the constituency of Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald will be a measure of whether the party is on a viable path to power or sliding into a dangerous decline.
The party’s local branch selected long-time councillor Janice Boylan to be their candidate, despite senior figures in the party appearing to prefer Gillian Sherratt, mother of the late Harvey Morrison Sherratt who died last year aged nine.
In 2022, Ms Boylan had a spectacular falling out with Ms McDonald and quit the party, before eventually being welcomed back into the fold.
In 2022, Ms Boylan had a spectacular falling out with Ms McDonald and quit the party, before eventually being welcomed back into the fold.
Sinn Féin doesn’t do heaves. Ms McDonald is only the second leader of the party in its history, after Gerry Adams, and there will be no sudden rush from the party’s TDs to overthrow her.
But party strategists will be left wondering if the ‘change’ they’ve been preaching about for so long might need to be applied within their own ranks.
2) How Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch fares
Gangland figure Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch came within a whisker of winning a Dáil seat in the November 2024 general election.
By-elections are a different beast: the winning candidate will need to reach more than 50% of the vote to be elected – and he was found wanting when it came to transfers last time out.
Despite spending much of the early part of the campaign in one of his Lanzarote properties, he was noticeably more organised and active this time compared to the general election.
Mr Hutch has declined to say how many properties he actually owns but has committed to revealing this if he is elected.
Political opponents have told the Irish Daily Mail that they have seen a lot more posters for the gangland figure in house windows throughout the Dublin Central constituency this time.
Gardaí were notified of stencilled graffiti of an image of Mr Hutch with the words ‘Vote Hutch no.1’ close to a polling station in the constituency yesterday.
Electoral law prohibits posters being placed within 100 metres of a polling station within 30 minutes of polls opening or closing.
Expect another media scrum around Mr Hutch if he arrives in the count centre in the RDS later today.
Mr Hutch is on course to grow his vote, which would pave the way for him to make another tilt at the Dáil in the next general election – when, on current projections, he would take a seat.
Expect another media scrum around Mr Hutch if he arrives in the count centre in the RDS later today.
3) Are the SocDems having ‘a moment’?
Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis is favourite to take the seat vacated by Paschal Donohoe in an area where the party already has a sitting TD in Gary Gannon.
Trumping Ms McDonald’s candidate in her own backyard would be a clear signal that the soft left is no longer fertile ground for the Shinners and that the SocDems are eating their lunch.
4) Just how badly will Fianna Fáil do?
The party’s councillor, John Stephens, has endured a difficult campaign that never really got going, for which the party should shoulder some of the blame.
Mr Stephens was polling at just 4% and is in danger of returning one of the worst results for a candidate in the party’s history.
The party’s councillor, John Stephens, has endured a difficult campaign
5) Paschal’s Prodigy
A veteran councillor of 17 years, and the current Lord Mayor of Dublin, Ray McAdam served as Paschal Donohoe’s right-hand man in the constituency.
Mr Donohoe polled 16.8% of first-preference votes in the general election. If Mr McAdam can poll between 12% and 14% it will be seen as a good day at the office and pave the way to a Dáil seat in the next general election.
Galway West:
6. Return of a Labour seat?
LABOUR members were privately very confident that their candidate Helen Ogbu would be victorious in the homeland of their divine former TD and former President Michael D Higgins.
Political sources who canvassed the constituency told this newspaper that her name was the one they were hearing most on the doors from people who offered to say who they would be voting for.
However, Ms Ogbu performed very poorly on the all important local radio debate on Galway Bay FM this week. Is she destined for glory or will she fall at the final hurdle?
7. Can the fuel protest vote push Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas into the Dáil?
FORMER Fianna Fáil man Noel Thomas was front and centre at the blockage of Galway Port during last month’s fuel protests.
A TG4/Irish Times poll from the constituency placed him on 16% of the vote, but the survey put him at just 7% when it came to all important transfers.
The protesters claimed to speak for ‘the people of Ireland’ in their blockade of critical infrastructure.
It will be interesting to see if ‘the people of Ireland’ turn up and vote Mr Thomas into the Dáil.
A TG4/Irish Times poll from the constituency placed him on 16% of the vote, but the survey put him at just 7% when it came to all important transfers
8. Test of ‘Vote left, Transfer left’ voting pact
The so-called parties of the left – Sinn Féin, Labour, Social Democrats, Green Party, People Before Profit – have signed a ‘Vote left, transfer left’ voting pact.
If it holds through it should propel one of them to victory, and set an interesting precedent for the next general election, but that’s a big ‘if’.
9. Can Sean Kyne overcome the Government by-election curse?
Just three Government candidates have been victorious in by-elections during the last 30 years. Mr Kyne, a sitting Senator and former Government Chief Whip, was leading on 17% in the only constituency poll conducted earlier this month.
Will the electorate who rejected him in 2024 suddenly believe that he’s their man?
