Despite the continuing bloodshed in Gaza, the many peace plans that come and go and the steady escalation of tensions in the wider Middle East, there is one faint but very definite glimmer of light.
It is flickering just a few hundred miles to the north east of Jerusalem in the borderlands where Syria butts on to its giant neighbour, Turkey. And it could have profound implications for the region as a whole.
For, despite the initial upheavals following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad – including Islamic insurgencies, uprisings from the Assad-supporting Alawite clan and continuing air raids by Israel – there are welcome signs of stability in the northern parts of the country.
Less than a year since Assad was deposed, international investment is starting to arrive. And optimism is growing in two cities in particular: Deir ez-Zur in the north east and the ancient settlement of Aleppo to the west.
Despite the initial upheavals following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, there are welcome signs of stability in the northern parts of Syria
Oil production has started once again and, with the backing of the US, international investors are returning
Tom Barrack, America’s ambassador to Turkey and its special representative for Syria, was among those present at the launch of the $7billion hydrocarbon deal
Between them, these battered cities represent two powerful forces that even Israel in its most militant mood has chosen to leave alone: international commerce and the backing of the powerful Turkish military.
First, Deir ez-Zur, where – with the backing of America – industrial concerns from Turkey and Qatar have just signed a $7billion-dollar agreement to extract gas in the neighbouring region and turn it into electricity.
The companies, which include Kalyon Holding and Cengiz Holding from Istanbul and Qatar-based UCC and Power International are planning a 4000 mega-watt natural gas power station scheduled for completion within the next three years.
The investors are also planning a 1000-watt solar energy plant in the region, which should be ready in two years’ time. And together, these two facilities will generate 35billion kilowatt hours of electricity a year, enough for most of Syria’s current energy needs.
It is significant that Tom Barrack, America’s ambassador to Turkey and its special representative for Syria, was among those present at the launch of the $7billion hydrocarbon deal, saying, ‘I am here to renew the commitment of the Trump administration to Syria.’
So, it is perhaps is no coincidence that Deir ez-Zur has avoided the regular incursions by Israel’s airforce (it claims to be looking for Iranian-backed terror networks) that still cover much of Syria.
Indeed, the early signs suggest that the presence of international investors might be having the sort of protective effect that President Donald Trump eventually hopes to create by sending US companies to mine and process minerals in Ukraine.
Aleppo – which suffered terribly under the reign of ISIS terror – does not have hydrocarbons. But it does have the protection of Turkey, which controls the airspace in the surrounding region and has stationed ground troops nearby.
The Israel Defence Forces have chosen to leave Aleppo alone, also. And now, for the first time in years, the city is starting to make plans for the future.
Northern Syria and its oil wells are protected by the renewed presence of international investors
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, right, is exerting increasing control in neighbouring Syria. And he has the backing of President Donald Trump
The investment opportunities are significant, not least because the magnitude of destruction since the horrific Syrian civil war began in 2011 has been enormous.
The country is crying out for business and civilian infrastructure.
Deir ez-Zur already has an airport to serve oil executives. But this needs to be tripled in size to meet fast-rising demand in the region.
Aleppo, meanwhile, is crying out for the basics, including a new electrical grid and desperately needed housing – not just for the immediate population, but the thousands of returning refugees and displaced Syrians following the years of warfare.
Comparatively peaceful, these border regions are where, for now, the majority of those returning to Syria wish to settle.
Turkey, too, is playing a major role. It was Ankara, of course, which backed the opposition forces that toppled Assad last December and creation of the new Syrian army established shortly afterwards.
Turkey’s humanitarian TIKA agency is already hard at work building houses for (although it will take international cooperation to complete the task).
But with these developments comes the prospect of fresh tensions between Israel and Turkey.
Relations have been poor for some time, with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan happy to criticise Israel in public. And developments in Syria will have done nothing to help.
It has become increasingly clear that Ankara regards Syria as its rightful sphere of influence – and that it will seek to extend its protective air cover over the whole of the country.
And for Israel, this presents a problem. The Turkish military – and the economy that funds it – are significantly bigger than anything it has confronted to date, including longstanding bete noire, Iran.
The IDF is already cautious when it comes to Turkey and its influence. On its recent mission to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites, for example, the IDF avoided Syrian airspace, no doubt because it is protected by the Turkish Koral 1 air defence system. Israel’s planes chose to travel via Jordan and Iraq instead.
Soon, Turkey will announce the development of the more advanced Koral 2 electronic warfare system which, it has been suggested, can watch planes and their movements on Israeli airfields.
Turkish officials have already announced they plan to establish three air bases inside Syria. In my view, it is only a matter of time before Turkey sends its electronic defence systems across the border, too.
All of which is good news for Deir ez-Zur, Aleppo and Syria as a whole. There are good reasons to look forward to a nation which is open for business, safe for refugees to return and for tourists to visit.
Yet there is no mistaking the geopolitical shift that this involves. Not everyone will be happy.
