One Nation beating both major parties in a Newspoll could once have been dismissed as a freak result. Doing it again – immediately after a historic by-election victory over Labor in a previously safe WA state seat – is a sure sign that voters are unhappy with the status quo.
The latest figures are extraordinary. At 30 per cent, Pauline Hanson is no longer snapping at the heels of the major parties, she’s leading them. Labor sits at 29 per cent, while the Coalition has collapsed to a catastrophic 19 per cent.
The Farrer by-election was a warning to the Coalition. Secret Harbour is a warning to Labor. The looming state elections in Victoria (November) and NSW (March next year) will test whether this rupture is becoming a nationwide realignment, bringing the 100 plus year old two-party system to an end.
Anthony Albanese‘s response to Secret Harbour has been revealing. He used the Queensland Labor conference to declare war on hard-right populists, accusing them of peddling politics that is ‘dangerous, divisive and downright dishonest’.
That might be red meat for the party faithful, but it’s dangerous to dismiss a party with the voters One Nation is now attracting so strongly.
Parties don’t hit 30 per cent because a third of the electorate has been hypnotised by misinformation. They get there because millions of voters have concluded the political establishment neither understands nor cares about them.
Telling those voters they’ve been conned is exactly the sort of condescension that drove them to Hanson in the first place. It’s the sort of stuff that has cost politicians dearly in the past – see Hillary Clinton calling Trump supporters a ‘basket of deplorables’.
Meanwhile, Albo warns that One Nation will ‘say anything and do anything to win votes’.
Albanese greets supporters during the Queensland Labor state conference on Sunday, in the wake of the Secret Harbour by-election result
Pauline Hanson’s personal approval rating is minus one – compared to Albanese’s minus 21 and Angus Taylor’s minus 17
Those are bold words from a PM who flipped on stage three tax cuts, rewrote the rules on superannuation having promised not to, and used the May Budget this year to break more promises, this time on negative gearing and capital gains taxes.
Accusing others of peddling misinformation works much better when voters actually trust you.
Newspoll’s personal ratings are also brutal. Albo’s net approval is minus 21, Angus Taylor’s is minus 17. Hanson has climbed to minus one. Her controversies are already priced in, while the failures of the major parties compound daily.
While the PM still beats Hanson 56-to-44 in a direct showdown on the preferred leader rating, the three way race is devastating for the Coalition. Albo leads on 46 per cent, but Hanson on 31 per cent has relegated Taylor, on just 23 per cent, to an afterthought. In the public mind, Hanson is now the real opposition leader.
At 19 per cent primary support, the Coalition hasn’t just lost the argument, it has lost its claim to be the alternative government.
The Coalition response is pure delusion. Hoping One Nation implodes isn’t a strategy, it’s a dream. And copying Hanson fails because voters prefer the genuine article.
Labor’s danger is different. A fractured conservative vote might save Albo’s majority, keeping Labor in power. But Secret Harbour proves Hanson can steal seats off Labor in the outer suburbs. That will make backbenchers nervous the closer we get to election day.
Newspoll confirms Taylor is being erased altogether and Albo’s electoral coalition is fracturing. If the PM thinks he can win by treating one third of the country as the enemy, he’ll simply do Hanson’s job for her.
