Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote has declared that Africa will become fully self-sufficient in fertiliser production within the next 40 months, due to the aggressive expansion plans of his $2.5 billion fertiliser plant near Lagos.
Speaking at the annual Afreximbank meeting in Abuja on Friday June 27, 2025, Dangote expressed confidence in his company’s ability to transform the continent’s agricultural landscape and significantly reduce reliance on imported fertilisers.
“In the next 40 months, Africa will not import fertiliser from anywhere. We have a very aggressive trajectory right now. We want Dangote to be the highest producer of urea, bigger and higher than Qatar, give me 40 months,” he is quoted to have said by Reuters.
Currently, Africa imports over six million metric tons of fertiliser annually, which has become a heavy burden on national economies, particularly Nigeria, where foreign exchange pressures persist due to a weak local currency.
However, Aliko Dangote believes expanding domestic production will be a game-changer for the continent’s food security and economic resilience.
The Dangote Fertiliser plant, which is already Africa’s largest granulated urea complex, has an annual production capacity of three million tons, with around 37% exported to the United States.
To achieve his bold ambition, the Nigerian industrialist will need to double this output in the wake of global market uncertainties.
He has previously stated he is “not worried” about the potential impact of tariffs under the Trump administration, focusing instead on scaling production and deepening Africa’s control over its agricultural inputs.
He also announced that his fertiliser plant will be listed on the Nigerian stock market later this year, signalling confidence in the plant’s long-term growth and contribution to the continent’s agricultural independence.
Meanwhile, analysts agree that the fertiliser market holds strong growth potential but caution that Aliko Dangote’s expansion will face infrastructure challenges.
Seth Goldstein, a senior equity analyst at Morningstar Research, noted that “any new fertiliser plant or expansion project faces cost overrun risks to the producer.”
Mikolah Judson, an analyst at Control Risk, also pointed to persistent logistics issues.
“Transport infrastructure and port capacity remain critical. Bottlenecks routinely delay various import and export projects in Nigeria,” he said.
MA
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