The final whistle of Africa’s 2026 World Cup qualifiers brought more confusion than celebration for many fans.
Nigeria were through to the CAF playoffs, yet they had fewer points than teams like Burkina Faso, Uganda, and Madagascar in the group stages.
Across the continent, social media buzzed with one big question:
How did Nigeria qualify with 17 points when others had 19 or even 21?
At first glance, it made little sense. But behind the numbers lies a simple, easily overlooked rule that reshaped the entire playoff picture.
Nigeria miss out on automatic qualification for 2026 FIFA World Cup
And it’s not just about Nigeria, it’s how CAF determined the four runners-up who would still fight for Africa’s last ticket to the 2026 World Cup.
A rule many missed
CAF’s qualification format featured nine groups of six teams each, with the group winners booking automatic places to the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The second-placed teams were then compared to decide the best four, who would enter a playoff to determine one final African representative.
But here’s where most fans got lost: when comparing those nine runners-up, CAF deducted all points earned against the bottom-placed team in each group.
This rule was introduced to level the field as a result of Eritrea’s withdrawal.
How the rule changed everything
In Group A, Burkina Faso looked strong with 21 points, but six of those points came from victories over Djibouti, who finished bottom of the group.
Once those matches were excluded, Burkina Faso’s adjusted total dropped to 15 points.
In Group B, DR Congo appeared to have one of the best records in qualifying with 22 points, but they too won six points against the last-placed team, South Sudan.
After the deduction, their total reduced to 16 points, which still proved enough to put them among the top four runners-up.
In Group C, Nigeria collected 17 points, but they failed to beat Zimbabwe, who finished last in their group.
The Super Eagles only managed two draws against them, earning just two points.
That meant when the rule was applied, Nigeria lost only those two points, leaving them with 15 points after adjustment, and crucially, a strong goal difference.
In Group D, Cameroon ended with 19 points, including four earned from matches against Eswatini, who came last.
After the deduction, Cameroon’s total became 15 points, keeping them in contention.
In Group E, the story was slightly different. Eritrea had withdrawn from the competition, leaving only five teams in the group.
As a result, there was no bottom-placed side to remove, so Niger’s 15 points all counted, though their goal difference wasn’t enough to place them among the top four.
In Group F, Gabon had a remarkable campaign, collecting 25 points. However, they also won six points from Seychelles, who finished bottom.
Even after those six were deducted, Gabon still topped the runners-up standings with 19 points, the highest adjusted total across the continent.
In Group G, Uganda finished with 18 points, having taken all six from Somalia, the group’s weakest side.
Their new total after deductions stood at 12 points.
In Group H, Namibia’s 15 points included six earned from São Tomé and Príncipe, the last-placed team.
This dropped their adjusted total to 9 points.
Finally, in Group I, Madagascar earned 19 points, but since six came from victories over Chad, their final adjusted total became 13 points.
Who qualified?
After applying the rule, the four best second-placed teams, Gabon, DR Congo, Cameroon, and Nigeria advanced to the CAF playoffs for the final African World Cup ticket.
Burkina Faso, despite their impressive 21 points in the group stage, missed out because six of those points were earned against the last-placed side, Djibouti.
Why fans were confused
Many supporters compared group tables directly, assuming the total points determined qualification.
However, once the bottom-team results were removed, the entire ranking shifted.
Teams that dominated weaker opponents lost the most ground, while those who performed consistently against stronger sides, such as Nigeria, benefited from the adjustment.
The confusion among fans is understandable; the rule wasn’t widely known and wasn’t clearly explained before the final matchday. But according to CAF’s regulations, the mathematics checks out.
Check out the rule below:
FKA/JE
Meanwhile, watch highlights of Ghana’s 1-0 win over Comoros in the World Cup qualifiers
