Just over a year ago, Anthony Albanese and his fiancée Jodie Haydon were treated to a sumptuous three-course meal of butternut squash soup, short ribs and chocolate mousse cake at state dinner with Joe and Jill Biden in the White House.
The Prime Minister released a joint statement with the then US President in which they hailed ‘a new era of US-Australia strategic cooperation’.
Mr Albanese gushed over the ‘three pillars of our alliance: defence, economic, and climate and clean energy cooperation’.
But that third pillar will almost certainly topple over and smash into pieces in the wake of Donald Trump‘s historic return to power.
The President-elect has not been shy in articulating what he thinks of climate change, dubbing it a ‘hoax’ and ‘one of the great scams of all time’.
He dismantled almost 100 climate policies in his first term as President in 2016.
It is likely he will seek to pull the US out of the Paris climate agreement, which aims to keep the world global average temperature below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, for the second time.
Trump has also told supporters of his plans to ‘drill, baby, drill’ by massively ramping up the US production of oil and gas.
Just over a year ago, Anthony Albanese and his fiance Jodie Haydon were treated to a sumptuous three-course meal of butternut squash soup, short ribs and chocolate mousse cake at state dinner with Joe and Jill Biden in the White House (pictured)
But that third pillar will almost certainly topple over and smash into pieces in the wake of Donald Trump ‘s historic return to power
Australia’s richest person, Gina Rinehart, proudly unveiled a sign saying ‘drill, baby, drill’ at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago election night party.
He has also said he would ban all offshore wind projects on day one of his presidency, claiming they kill whales.
What does this mean for Australia?
A key aspect of that ‘third pillar’ upholding Australian-US diplomatic relations was the signing of a Climate, Critical Minerals and Clean Energy Transformation Compact in March 2023 between Mr Biden and Mr Albanese on the sidelines of the G7.
The Compact aims to coordinate both countries’ climate and clean energy initiatives in the Indo-Pacific, with a particular focus on electric vehicle supply chains — especially the critical minerals needed in battery production — in addition to green hydrogen production.
But Samuel Garrett, a research associate at the United States Studies Centre, said Trump will be ‘very likely to walk away’ from the Compact.
‘We’ll almost certainly see that be air-brushed out of history if Trump is re-elected, at least for his time in office,’ Mr Garrett told SBS.
‘But that said, a lot of the substance of the Climate Compact is likely to be preserved, particularly aspects regarding things like critical minerals co-operation, which take up a very significant aspect of that agreement.’
Mr Garrett suggested that while Trump could ‘stall deeper climate co-operation between Australia and the US’ and “could be damaging to public views of the US in Australia … there are a lot of ways in which co-operation will continue’.
Dr Emma Shortis, director of International and Security Affairs at the Australian Institute thinktank, told the ABC that Trump’s success had ‘huge implications for Australia’.
‘An incoming Trump administration undoes any and all climate action that the United States,’ she said.
She added: ‘Australia and our partners in the region are going to have to tread increasingly carefully as the US becomes more predictable and volatile in the weeks and months ahead’.
Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie sounded a more upbeat note, insisting that ‘Trump’s re-election doesn’t alter the science or what we need to do’.
‘In Australia, households are embracing rooftop solar and batteries and communities are building their own renewable energy projects. Nationally, we’re expanding renewable energy and cutting climate pollution further and faster,’ Ms McKenzie said.
‘Continuing to cut climate pollution is in our national interest as it will keep Australians safer, with pollution from coal, oil, and gas already driving unnatural disasters, like the Black Summer bushfires and Lismore floods.’
She added: ‘Australia’s climate progress doesn’t hinge on the outcome of US elections. The renewable energy shift is unstoppable and so is Australia’s role in it.’
Australia’s richest person, Gina Rinehart, proudly unveiled a sign saying ‘drill, baby, drill’ at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago election night party (pictured)
Before Trump was elected, Chris Bowen, the climate change and energy minister, downplayed the impact he would have on the global fight against climate change.
‘Firstly, they are the United States. So the state functions are very important. And perhaps unlike 2016, where the result came as a surprise, if it is a Trump administration people are doing more preparation for it,’ Mr Bowen told The Guardian.
‘Secondly, it’s hard to legislate in the United States, but it’s also hard to un-legislate. So the Inflation Reduction Act is the law of the land and will remain the law of the land unless it gets repealed, which will be very difficult to do.
‘And thirdly, the private sector can help. In the United States, regardless of federal mandates, they know [climate action] is good business.’
The Inflation Reduction Act, which was signed into law in 2022, triggered a ‘clean energy arms race’ around the world by investing $370 billion in clean energy projects through a range of subsidies and tax credits.
Mr Bowen acknowledged that a Trump presidency would alter the dynamics of the global climate battle but insisted it would not radically alter its course.
This is perhaps wishful thinking, given the US is the second-largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world, behind only China.
Mr Bowen is also chair of something called the ‘umbrella group’ at the COP29 climate summit due to be held in Azerbaijan next week.
The Umbrella Group, made up of nations including the US, UK, Canada and Japan, presents a united front at the 200-country odd summit.
For example, at Cop28 the Umbrella Group refused to sign an agreement that would be ‘death certificate’ for small islands in the Pacific.
It is unclear whether the US will withdraw from the Umbrella Group now Trump is President-elect.
The Prime Minister released a joint statement with the then US President in which they hailed ‘a new era of US-Australia strategic cooperation’. Mr Albanese gushed over the ‘three pillars of our alliance: defence, economic, and climate and clean energy cooperation’
Another issue no doubt at the forefront of Mr Bowen’s mind is when he will announce Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target under the Paris climate agreement.
The deadline is February but Mr Bowen has refused to be pinned down on whether he will unveil a target before the next Federal election.
Some have pointed out that this is because the major issue likely to dominate the election is the cost-of-living crisis and the government doesn’t want to risk seeming to be more focussed on climate targets that have no discernible impact on voters’ short-term lives.
This is exacerbated by the fact that Opposition leader Peter Dutton has declared he will not announce at 2035 target before the election and his lobbying for nuclear power – a policy favoured by Trump.
Professor Michelle Grattan, esteemed journalist and chief political correspondent with The Conversation, argued that Mr Bowen faced threat from all sides over the 2035 target.
‘A bold target would make the government more vulnerable, just when Labor would want the attention on the Coalition’s problematic nuclear policy,’ Prof Grattan wrote.
‘On the other hand, if the target were modest, that would be exploited by the Greens.’
