The terrifying scale of damage wrought by Cyclone Alfred on Australia’s east coast will depend on a ‘coincidence’ of factors, experts have warned.
With gale-force winds and heavy rainfall battering southeast Queensland and northern NSW, the slow-moving system is expected to hit in less than 24 hours.
By 7am on Friday, it was just 165km east of Brisbane and 140km northeast of the Gold Cold and travelling at a ‘walking speed’ of roughly 6km/h.
‘It is not unusual for cyclones to slow down as they approach the coast,’ Tom Mortlock, head of climate analytics Asia-Pacific at Aon, told Daily Mail Australia.
‘It is looking like Saturday morning is when it will arrive,’ he said.
Mr Mortlock, who is an adjunct fellow at the University of NSW’s Climate Change Research Centre, said Cyclone Alfred slowed after it hit a ‘high pressure system’ in the Cora Sea and due to light winds above the system.
‘Tropical cyclones across Queensland have been slow-moving previously,’ he said.
‘Whether or not that coincides with high tide, that will really determine the level to which we see impact.’
If there is a rise in sea levels due to the storm, on top of high tide, this combination could cause a huge impact on communities (pictured, people watch giant waves in Coolangatta, QLD)
Australia’s east coast is already experiencing extreme weather, with waves crashing into Currumbin Beach Vikings Surf Club, Gold Coast, on Thursday
A flooded causeway after heavy rain is seen at Tintenbar in NSW’s Far North Coast
Mr Mortlock explained that storm surge – an abnormal rise in sea levels during a storm – occurs on top of the regular flow of the tide.
This means the impact on Australia’s coast is reliant on the ‘coincidence’ between Alfred making landfall during a period of high tide.
‘If it hits at low tide, impacts are contained, but it will be more significant at high tide,’ he explained.
Already, the Bureau has reported record-breaking waves across the east coast with some reaching as high as 15metres.
Mr Mortlock predicts anywhere south of Brisbane, down to NSW’s Northern Rivers, is a ‘zone of concern’ for severe wind damage.
‘[Alfred] may stick around for some time, we expect it to be downgraded to a tropical low but that does not mean danger has passed,’ he said.
‘If it sticks around, that can exacerbate flooding.’
Anthony Albanese has said climate change has played an obvious part in the impending natural disaster.
A fallen branch is seen in Ballina on Australia’s east coast on Friday
Even if downgraded to a tropical low, Mortlock says that does not mean danger has passed (pictured, a jet ski with a surfer is seen surfing record-breaking waves in Coolangatta)
‘What we know is that the science tells us that there would be more extreme weather events, they would be more frequent and they would be more intense,’ he told a press conference on Friday morning.
‘You can’t say this is just because of climate change. (But) what you can say is that climate change is having an impact on our weather patterns,’ he said.
While Mr Mortlock was quick to tell Daily Mail Australia that there is no evidence, as of yet, that tropical cyclones are shifting south in the Australia region, climate change remains a concerning factor.
‘The clearest signal is a decline in a number of tropical cyclones making landfall in Australia,’ he said.
‘Most climate models project that the decrease will continue but those [storms] that do make landfall will be stronger.’
