The curtain is lifting on what could become one of the most explosive standoffs in the Americas.
As part of a new operation, the United States has sent its biggest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, into the Caribbean Sea amid a mounting military buildup around Venezuela.
President Donald Trump says he wants to crush the drug gangs he calls ‘narco terrorists’ and stop cocaine and other drugs from reaching American streets.
When asked by reporters if he would take military action against Venezuela last week, he said: ‘I can’t tell you what it would be, but I’ve sort of made up my mind.’
After weeks of deadly US strikes on small boats at sea, with the latest one on Saturday, Trump said the United States would ‘stop the drugs coming in by land‘.
His defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, is reported to have presented him with options for military operations in Venezuela, including strikes on land.
Trump’s comments have been seen as a hint that air or missile strikes on targets inside Venezuela could be on the table, even as he insists he is not planning a land invasion, despite the deployment in the region of nearly a dozen Navy ships and about 12,000 sailors and Marines.
The Gerald R. Ford, which sailed from Europe, is equipped with some four fighter squadrons of multirole F/A-18 Super Hornets along with another unit of EA-18 Growler electronic attack aircraft, which specialises in jamming and destroying enemy radar sites.
Those would be important assets if Trump orders strikes in Venezuela, including on its air defences.
The recent development adds to 10 U.S. Marine Corps F-35s stationed in Puerto Rico, along with AV-8 Harrier jump jets and AH-1 attack helicopters aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima, which is also in the region.
The world’s largest aircraft carrier rounds off the biggest buildup of U.S. firepower in the region in generations.
The former US ambassador to Venezuela, James Story, has now warned that the likelihood of military action against Venezuela has risen from 10 per cent in recent months to 80.
The USS Gerald R. Ford is the world’s largest aircraft carrier. It’s arrival in the Caribbean has fueled speculation of military action against Venezuela
The Ford, including the flagship USS Winston S. Churchill, USS Mahan, and USS Bainbridge sailing towards the Caribbean on November 13
But Venezuela’s president, Nicolas Maduro, says the threat has nothing to do with drugs and everything to do with power. He accuses Washington of using the war on cartels as a cover to topple his government and grab Venezuela’s vast oil and mineral wealth.
The US does not believe Maduro is the rightful leader of Venezuela and has called on him to resign.
The tension between the two countries has been building up for months, since Trump returned to the White House earlier this year. But in September, the two leaders’ war of words turned deadly.
At the start of the month, the US military used an airstrike to blow up a small vessel in the Caribbean Sea that it said was carrying drugs from Venezuela.
The next day, Trump announced the operation from the White House and posted a video of the strike on social media.
He said all 11 people on board were members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, which Washington has labelled a terrorist organisation. US officials, however, provided no public evidence to support that claim.
It was the first publicly acknowledged US combat strike in Latin America since the invasion of Panama in 1989. In the following weeks, more attacks followed.
According to a detailed count, by mid-November there had been 21 strikes on 22 vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, killing at least 83 people, with only two survivors.
The strikes have destroyed boats that Washington links to different armed groups, including the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua and the Colombian ELN guerrillas.
In one case, the Dominican Republic later recovered about a ton of cocaine from wreckage in the Caribbean. In other cases, families in Venezuela, Colombia and Trinidad and Tobago say those killed were poor fishermen and small-time couriers, not cartel bosses.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, has called the American attacks on alleged drug boats ‘unacceptable’ and urged Washington to halt them immediately, warning that they risk amounting to ‘extrajudicial killings’ in violation of international human rights law.
The US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth released a video showing a US strike on a vessel it claims was being operated by a terrorist organisation in the Caribbean Sea. There have been several strikes since September
Several Latin American countries have agreed – Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro has called the strikes ‘murder’ and has suspended some intelligence sharing with Washington.
Mexico’s president has complained about strikes near its waters and insisted Mexican forces, not US jets, should intercept suspicious boats.
Some of Trump’s own allies have raised concerns about the strikes. The UK has reportedly restricted intelligence-sharing with the US on suspected smuggler boats in the region.
Despite this, Trump has doubled down – the Pentagon has formally folded the strikes into a wider mission called Operation Southern Spear.
In Venezuela, there is anger over the death toll of citizens being killed without what they say is evidence that they were part of a criminal syndicate.
For Maduro, these deaths are proof that the United States is willing to kill Latin Americans at sea without trial. He has used them to rally support at home, telling Venezuelans that Washington is ‘coming for Venezuela’s riches’ and trying to create a pretext for regime change.
In public, Trump says he wants neither regime change nor war. In September, he denied that he was seeking to overthrow Maduro, saying the US moves were aimed at drug cartels, not the Venezuelan state.
However, at the same time, he has placed a $50 million reward on Maduro’s head, accused him of running a ‘narco-state’ and had his administration designate elements of Venezuela’s security elite as terrorists.
The USS Gerald R. Ford’s arrival has spooked experts into believing that a huge military showdown could be on the horizon.
Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro on November 14. He has insisted Trump is working to overthrow his government and gain access to the country’s wealth
A US Navy Landing Craft Air Cushion conducting training maneuvers off the coast of Punta Guilarte in Puerto Rico. It is part of the US’ huge military presence in the Caribbean
The USS Gravely, a Navy warship departing in Trinidad and Tobago on October 26 for joint military exercises near the coast of Venezuela
US Marines F-35B jets preparing to land at Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport in Puerto Rico on September 13
Even before the Ford sailed in, the US had already sent the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group to the region with more than 4,000 sailors and Marines and the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit on board.
It deployed ten F-35 stealth fighters to Puerto Rico and other aircraft, including AC-130 gunships and P-8 maritime patrol planes, to hunt small boats and gather intelligence across a huge stretch of sea.
With the Ford’s arrival, there are now thousands of US military personnel spread across roughly a dozen major warships and bases in Puerto Rico and the wider southern Caribbean.
Meanwhile, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll said Sunday that U.S. troops have been training in Panama, underscoring the administration’s increasing focus on Latin America.
‘We’re reactivating our jungle school in Panama. We would be ready to act on whatever’ Trump and Hegseth needed, he told CBS.
Analysts say it is the largest US deployment in the region, outside disaster relief, since the 1994 Haiti intervention.
The build-up is not just at sea – on land, US troops are training with regional partners. In Trinidad and Tobago, just seven miles from Venezuela at the closest point, government ministers have confirmed joint exercises with US Marines focused on tackling violent crime and drug trafficking.
Venezuelan officials call this an act of aggression and fear that these drills could be used to pre-position forces or gather intelligence on their coast.
On paper, the balance of military power between the two is not a contest. Venezuela’s conventional armed forces are small and worn down after years of crisis.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated its regular force at around 125,000 personnel even before the latest wave of desertions and low morale.
Maduro speaks of millions of militia members, and has claimed to have mobilised more than 4.5 million civilian volunteers. Independent experts say that figure is not credible.
One think-tank notes that he won fewer than 3.8 million votes in the last election, and estimates that only a few hundred thousand militia members actually exist on paper, with far fewer likely to fight. Many are said to be public sector workers pressured to join rather than hardened fighters.
Yet Venezuela does have real capabilities that could make any US attack costly.
Venezuela’s Su-30MK2 fighter jets flying over Caracas. They are among the most capable combat aircraft in the region
Experts have pegged Venezuela’s active military personnel count at 125,000 – Maduro, however claims to have mobilised more than 4.5 million civilian volunteers
Its air defence network is built around long-range Russian S-300VM surface-to-air missile systems, backed up by medium-range Buk-M2E batteries, older Pechora-2M systems, thousands of Igla-S shoulder-launched missiles and, very recently, new Pantsir-S1 air defence vehicles delivered from Russia.
Military analysts say that this layered network, if properly maintained and crewed, can threaten US aircraft out to long distances and complicate any attempt to gain air superiority.
In the skies, Venezuela still flies Russian-made Su-30MK2 fighter jets, which, while ageing, are among the most capable combat aircraft in the region.
Venezuelan planning documents obtained by Reuters show that the high command does not expect to match the US head-on.
Instead, it is preparing what it calls ‘prolonged resistance’ and ‘anarchization’. Under the first plan, small units spread across more than 280 locations would engage in sabotage and guerrilla attacks if US forces came on land.
Under the second, intelligence services and loyalist armed groups would try to generate chaos in cities such as Caracas, using gangs and pro-government colectivos to make the country ungovernable for an invader.
Behind all this sits another actor, thousands of miles away, that shapes the entire crisis – Russia.
For years, Venezuela has been Moscow’s closest ally in the Americas, buying billions of dollars of weapons and receiving loans and investments from Russian energy companies.
On 7 May 2025, presidents Vladimir Putin and Maduro signed a strategic partnership treaty in Moscow, pledging deeper cooperation in energy, mining, transport and security and a ‘trusting partnership’ across political and military fields.
The deal has since been ratified in both countries and is now in force.
Vladimir Putin, seen with Maduro in May 2025, is one of Venezuela’s most powerful allies. The pair signed a strategic partnership treaty in Moscow earlier this year
Russia says it backs Venezuela’s sovereignty and has sharply criticised the US buildup. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has since confirmed that Moscow is in close contact with Caracas and wants to prevent escalation, although Russian officials have also hinted that they stand ready to provide more military support.
Meanwhile, Putin’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, said the Kremlin is ‘ready to fully act within the framework of the obligations that were mutually stipulated in this agreement with our Venezuelan friends.’
Russian statements and state media suggest Moscow is not ruling out sending more equipment, including missiles, although there is no sign of any formal mutual defence pledge.
Critics have observed that for Trump, this gives the crisis a second layer.
He is not only putting pressure on Maduro, he is also signalling to Moscow that he is willing to push back against a Russian partner in the Western Hemisphere, even while his administration tries to avoid direct clashes with Russia over Ukraine.
Analysts in Washington and Europe say the Venezuela deployment, combined with other US moves against Russian and Iranian allies, is part of a broader effort to show that America can still project power globally.
With all the military buildup in the region, Trump has either downplayed or given vague answers when the question of the possibility of war is brought up.
The risk that most experts worry about is miscalculation. A single mis-identified boat, a clash between Venezuelan jets and a US warship, an accident involving F-35s flying close to Venezuelan airspace, or a strike that kills nationals from a sensitive partner country could turn a cold confrontation hot very fast.
Venezuela’s new air defences and drones increase the chance of a shoot-down or a strike on an American asset. Russia’s involvement, even if limited to arms and political backing, adds another layer of danger.
Maduro, for his part, is trying to use the crisis to shore up his own rule. He presents himself as a leader standing up to imperialism, boosts ties with Russia, China and Iran, and talks of resistance and sacrifice.
In recent days, Trump has said they could still be a diplomatic avenue between him and his Venezuelan counterpart, saying ‘Venezuela would like to talk.’
Trump has insisted he does not want war in Venezuela, despite the fact that he has deployed some of his most powerful military equipment near the country
Nevertheless, for now, the USS Gerald R Ford steams in the Caribbean with its flight deck busy and its aircraft ready.
Senior sources in the US have indicated that military personnel are ready and waiting for orders to ‘strike and respond’.
Trump says he has ‘sort of made up’ his mind. Maduro says ‘Venezuela is confronting the biggest threat… in the last 100 years’ and promises to turn the country into a ‘republic in arms’ if the US attacks.
Between those two positions lies a narrow space where both men insist they do not want war but act in ways that make a clash more likely.
