Keir Starmer revealed this week that a visit to the home of a voter in Oldham a decade earlier had made him realise that his party had ‘got it wrong’ on immigration.
Pensioner Joyce Todd warned the future Prime Minister then that uncontrolled immigration was having a negative effect on her neighbourhood – a warning she reiterated this week when her name was thrust into the public sphere by his speech at Labour conference.
The Daily Mail decided to investigate Mrs Todd’s claims – specifically to try to determine whether there has indeed been the kind of demographic shift she claims to have witnessed since she moved into her two-bedroom terrace house 46 years ago.
Mrs Todd, 79, and her husband Norman bought their small, terraced house in Villa Road in Oldham for just £3,000, moving in July 1979.
She now recalls that Oldham was very different then.
To make her point she showed us a series of black and white images that had been shared on a local nostalgia group’s Facebook page from the 1970s.
A typical image shows a neat looking Villa Road with fewer cars, more uniform houses and no visible litter, an advert for Players No10 cigarettes is on the wall of the first building on Villa Road – and which has now been demolished and replaced by newbuilds.
Mrs Todd said: ‘Looking at that black and white picture brings back so many happy memories – it was a different time back then and everyone got on with their neighbour.
‘You knew who everyone was, and you could have a chat with them and leave the door open and people would look out for you. It used to be a lovely street with fantastic people.’
The retired trade journalist’s house is now worth more like £130,000 – an increase of 4,300 per cent.
But Mrs Todd feels poorer rather than better off – and believes that this is because Villa Road has degenerated significantly.
‘Things changed,’ she said. ‘It’s slowly got worse with drug dealing and fly tipping…no one takes any pride anymore.’
Mrs Todd blames migration which she says has changed her street beyond recognition.
She largely exonerates the Asian families who started arriving in the 1970s but attributes blame to more recent arrivals, often from eastern Europe.
So is Mrs Todd right about a perceived demographic shift in her street in the last half century – or is she, as she insists Keir Starmer called her in 2015, just ‘a racist’?
The Daily Mail’s analysis of data from public sources like the Electoral Register suggests that irrespective of her analysis of consequences, Mrs Todd’s perception of demographic change is correct.
At around the time she moved into Villa Road, the vast majority of her neighbours were white British. Census statistics from 1981 show that 92% of the people living on the street were born in Britain.
A search of the electoral roll for 1981, two years after they moved in, reveals Norman and Joyce living at number 58 – and next door as Mrs Todd recalled, her friends the Patel family.
Norman and Joyce missed the cut off point to be included in the 1979 roll as they bought their house at the end of September that year.
A search of the roll for 1979 shows that 36 out of 179 people eligible to elect – less than 25% were of Asian heritage – and the rest had surnames that would typically correspond to the white British category.
Among them are the Scholes family at 90, the Cook clan at 76 and the Halls at 50.
The most common Asian-origin surname in the record from 1979 – the year Margaret Thatcher swept to power – is Patel, with four families listed by that name.
Readily available public records at Oldham Archives paint a very different picture now of the demographic at Villa Road with the latest available electoral roll for 2022 revealing a complete reversal in demographics.
By then, of the 220 people eligible to vote 191 have Asian or Eastern European-origin surnames and just 29 have apparently white British ones – among them Joyce and Norman.
Joyce Todd met with future Prime Minister back in 2015 at her terraced house in Oldham where she warned him uncontrolled immigration was having a negative effect on her neighbourhood
Mrs Todd, 79, and her husband Norman bought their small, terraced house in Villa Road in Oldham for just £3,000, with it now worth more like £130,000 – an increase of 4,300 per cent
Thus at Number 90 the Scholes family has been replaced by the Ali family, at number 76 where the Cook family lived is Sajad Ahmd and Anjam Arshad and at 50 where the Halls used to be is the Yousef family.
When The Mail visited Villa Road this week we found that the residents are, as the records suggest, predominantly of Asian heritage, hugely outnumbering the proportion of white British occupants.
And most of those white British who remain, like Mrs Todd, are retired and have lived in the street for over 20 years, some much longer.
The first Asian residents are believed to have moved in since the late 1970s with the proportion increasing steadily ever since.
A mosque opened on the street in 1994. Notoriously, it was later firebombed shortly after the Manchester Arena bombing in 2017.
There are also two Hindu temples and a Hindu community within a few hundred yards of Villa Road.
While data records show currently 60% of Villa Road residents are still British born, it’s thought that a great number of those are of Asian heritage.
The number who speak English as a first language in the street is declining, now down to 67%
In just over two decades, from 2002 to 2024, the number of people with surnames apparently from the British Isles decreased by 61.6% – from 73 in 2002, to 28 in 2024, according to the electoral register.
Over the same period, registered voters of Pakistani and Indian heritage rose from 89 to 169 – a 90% rise – which saw a growth in Asian residents jump from little more than half to a staggering 82% of the street.
The road was in 2024 barely an estimate one-seventh English and Irish, according to our analysis.
In 2016 one of Mrs Todd’s last presumed white British near neighbours, a Ms Bennett, moved out, replaced by an Asian heritage incomer.
While those arriving between the 1970s and early 2000s tended to be younger families taking on whole houses, more recently increasing numbers of properties on Villa Road have become ‘houses of multiple occupation (HMOs)’ – meaning that they have more people living in them than the original builders intended, often many more people.
Then and now: Villa Road, where Mrs Todd lives, pictured in the 1970s (left) and 2025 (right)
Then and now: A row of shops on the corner of Villa Rd in the 1970s (left) and 2025 (right)
Then and now: The corner of Villa Road and Meldrum Street as it was back then and today
And interestingly the data shows that it’s not just the nature of the residents that has shifted in time but the total number of them – perhaps because of the increase in these HMOs, the total population of Villa Road has risen by 20% since the early 2000s.
The newer arrivals taking these HMOs in Villa Road, as in surrounding Oldham streets, have been originally from Poland and increasingly Romania.
Some 12% of all residents are now from the EU, most from its poorer Eastern countries.
And it’s that latter group, those from Romania, who have been repeatedly singled out by earlier arrivals in the town as being associated with social problems which are widely held to have increased significantly in just the last few years.
It was when this wave from Eastern Europe began arriving that Mrs Todd protested to Keir Starmer in 2015 about an increase in anti-social behaviour.
Whether this is a reasonable claim or unfair scapegoating is hard to determine but certainly residents of all backgrounds complain about everything from littering, fly tipping and rodent infestations to prostitution, dangerous dogs, drug dealing, theft and violence.
These complaints are supported by stories in the local newspaper, The Oldham Chronicle, whose recent mentions of Villa Road include an armed robbery, a boy almost killed by a dog, and young teenagers allegedly tormenting a kitten by throwing it in the air.
We spoke to dozens of residents of Villa Road, on and off the record, and these complaints came up again and again – with longer-term residents recurrently suggesting the problems did not exist when they first moved in.
Faisal Iqbal’s family have run Villa Stores at number 41 since 1987 and were one of the first Asian families to move into the street.
The father-of-three, 38, said: ‘My in-laws were one of the first to move in here.
‘I had an English guy who came in a while ago and he said he worked here in the 1970s. It was a corner shop then but also had a bakery inside.
‘I myself have been here since 2008 and it’s changed a lot even since then. I think then there were a lot more white families.
‘But they have mainly gone. There is no racial tension between the white people and Asian families.
‘We all get on but Eastern European migrants moving in have caused more problems now. It is more dirty and there’s litter.’
Faisal’s brother-in-law, who lives nearby but did not wish to give his name, said: ‘I have been here for 35 years myself and grew up in this house.
‘There were very few Asian families then. It was a great place to live and we were always made to feel welcome. But it’s changed now.’
At 54, Joyce Todd’s close friend and near neighbour Romana Sheikh who was born in London to Pakistani immigrant parents says she moved into her Villa Road house 26 years ago.
The mother-of-seven, 45, said: ‘We get on really well with Joyce and have known her a long time. I was born in London but came here as we had a family connection.
‘A lot of people came to settle here from Pakistan as the white families moved out.
‘The rent was cheap so that’s why a lot of people settled in the road as well as family connections.
‘This was a great place to live but it’s got worse now with a lot of Eastern Europeans here.
‘We used to sit out on our front porch and watch our kids play with the white and Asian kids. It was really safe.
‘But we don’t let our kids play our now. It’s not safe.
‘There’s lots of gangs of Eastern European men hanging out in the street and there’s lots of fly-tipping.’
One of the declining number of white Britons is Gail Molloy who has lived in her home at no 44 Villa Road for nearly 40 years.
She moved in in 1986 and then had Asian and RomanIan neighbours.
The mother-of-two, 72, said: ‘It was a great place to live – really quiet and the Asian and white families all got on.
‘But it has become a bit of a nightmare since the eastern Europeans moved in. I’ve had eggs thrown at my windows and all sorts.
‘Some youths just sit on my wall – it’s very intimidating. There’s litter everywhere and lots of traffic.
‘Some of my neighbouring houses are now HMOs so that causes all sorts of problems with noise and litter. I am looking to move now as I’ve had enough.’
At no 63, Bilal Ahmed, 40, lives with four other Pakistani heritage men in a 5-bed HMO.
The former insolvency worker, 40 said: ‘It’s a nightmare living here. The house is infested with rats. There’s holes everywhere where they get in. I hear them all at night. One of them bit me on the arm the other week.’
He added: ‘There’s a lot of fly-tipping round here one of our neighbours is a hoarder so there’s lots of stuff in his garden which attracts the rats.’
Mr Ahmed, who is of Pakistani heritage but who was born in Middlesbrough, went on: ‘Most people get on in the street.
‘Most of my neighbours are Asian with the odd white or Romanian people. It’s a good mix.’
At no 104 is Baker Shaukat Ali, 65, who has lived in the road for 25 years since he first came to the UK from Pakistan.
The father-of-five said: ‘It was mainly white families then and everyone got on. Then more and more Asian families came and white families moved on.
‘The only racial tension we had was someone setting fire to the mosque after the Arena bombing but that wasn’t anyone from the street.
‘Generally it was quiet and a nice place to bring up a family. I helped my kids buy houses nearby.
‘But it has changed since more recent arrivals came – Romanians mainly. There have been issues with drugs and drinking.
‘And at one point we saw young women coming and going into some houses at the top of the road so people think there was some prostitution going on too.’
At number 82 retired security guard Brian Ingham said that at one point a neighbouring small house was housing some 15 Romanians.
The 65-year-old said: ‘It was a nightmare. There was only supposed to be two of them in there as it wasn’t an HMO.
‘They’d threaten the grandkids and defecate in the alleyways. Thankfully when the Asian landlady found out she turfed them out and moved in herself.
‘And there was a police raid the other week on a house that had been turned into a cannabis farm.’
‘I’ve been here since 2011 and all the Asian and white people get on – it’s only the Romanian that have caused problems.’
But while many openly blame the Romanian arrivals for a perceived upsurge in crime, others are more tolerant.
Father-of-two Mohammed Siddiq, 67, at number 30, said: ‘There’s no racial tension. Some people have voiced concerns about the Romanians here but they just have to learn how to behave in our culture in Britain. This will come… but generally it’s a good mix.’
Mr Siddiq lives close to the mosque where he worships, having moved to Britain after previously living in the Netherlands.
He said: ‘I was friends in Holland who knew Oldham so we ended up here. I’ve lived here 11 years now.’
Security guard Hassan Ali’s family moved into the street in 2011 – so the 22 year old has spent more than half his life in Villa Road.
He told us: ‘My family originally came from Pakistan. Back in the 1970s a grandfather came to Oldham so that’s where the connection came from.
‘Our family are from Mirpir in Pakistan. A lot of people left the Kashmir area for Britain. ‘We like living here. It is very friendly and most people get on. My family is happy here and we know a lot of our neighbours.’
Shop worker Abbas Islam’s family owns Villa Stores at number 32.
The 28-year-old father-of-one said: ‘I came here three years ago from Pakistan. I work in the shop as my family owns it. It’s good here.’
A white British pensioner who lives close to Abbas was happy to talk about his experiences but not to be named – perhaps because of his overt criticism of that cohort of Romanians.
The 71-year-old said: ‘The only problems I’ve had here has been with the Romanians. They fly-tip and cause all sorts of other problems.
‘There’s so much crime that at one point we had a police van almost constantly parked outside our house. It was a nightmare.’
When Mrs Todd moved into Villa Road (pictured) she was friendly with her Indian neighbour, the Patel family. Back then the overwhelming majority of people living there were white British – 36 out of 179 people eligible to elect – less than 25% were of Asian heritage. But by 2022 of the 220 people eligible to vote 191 have Asian or Eastern European-origin surnames and just 29 have apparently white British ones – among them Mrs Todd
Another white British couple live at number 89 and another white couple next door to them at 91.
The grandmother, 76, has lived in her house for 45 years.
It was bought it for £16,500 after the couple originally rented down the road.
She said: ‘I love my house and all my neighbours. We have one African lady nearby and a white couple next door but generally most are Asian.
‘They are lovely and we get on with everyone. It used to be mainly white British families but they either moved out or slowly died off. It was a slow change.
‘However it’s different with some many Eastern Europeans having moved in.
‘There’s gangs hanging around and gypsies causing trouble.
‘Behind the houses it looks like the Third World with so many many mattresses and rubbish thrown away. It’s shocking.’
Keir Starmer claimed that his visit to Villa Road in 2015 had made him realise that the Labour Party had been patronising to working class people in places like Oldham who had concerns about immigration.
It remains to be seen how this epiphany might affect what his government does -and whether that has any impact in places like Villa Road.
