Spring is typically a period of intense activity for farmers across the Northern Hemisphere, a race against time to sow crops as the ground thaws and conditions become optimal. However, this year has presented unprecedented challenges for many agricultural communities worldwide. The escalating conflict in Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have cast a long shadow over planting seasons, threatening to unravel global food security.
The Unfolding Crisis: Strait of Hormuz Blockade
A Critical Maritime Chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow and strategically vital waterway, is approximately 30 miles wide at its most constricted point, situated between the Omani Musandam Peninsula and Iran. This maritime passage serves as a critical artery for global trade, particularly for energy and agricultural inputs. A staggering half of the world’s fertilizer feedstock exports traverse this strait. These feedstocks – the raw materials essential for fertilizer production, including urea, ammonia, sulfur, hydrogen, natural gas, and nitrogen – are the lifeblood of modern agriculture. Veronica Nigh, chief economist at The Fertilizer Institute, underscores this dependency, stating that roughly half of the world’s entire food production relies directly on these fertilizers. The Strait’s unobstructed flow is therefore not merely an economic convenience but a fundamental pillar supporting food supply chains in the United States and across the globe.
The Immediate Impact on American Agriculture
The disruption caused by the Hormuz blockade has caught many American farmers off guard. Approximately a quarter of US farmers, who typically secure their fertilizer prices in the preceding fall, did not do so last year. They are now grappling with significantly increased costs, an unforeseen burden stemming from a geopolitical conflict they could not have anticipated. Each day the Strait remains closed or restricted, the crisis deepens, extending its reach further into the Northern Hemisphere’s crucial spring planting season. This delay and cost increase directly jeopardize the yields of essential crops.
David Ortega, an agricultural economist and professor at Michigan State University, succinctly describes the situation: “This is a slow-moving food crisis in the making.” The International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA) warns that this “fertilizer shock” could manifest in various ways, from a noticeable 1 to 3 percent surge in grocery store food prices to outright shortages of fresh produce around the world. The ripple effects are already being felt, signaling a difficult period ahead for consumers and producers alike.
The Economic Ripple Effect on Farmers
Last week brought a fleeting moment of hope when the US and Iran reportedly agreed to a two-week ceasefire, contingent on Iran reopening the vital waterway to shipping. Yet, within 24 hours, this fragile agreement crumbled. Iran once again closed the strait, citing Israeli strikes on Lebanon which Tehran declared a violation of the ceasefire terms. As of April 9th, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to free shipping, with the terms of the ceasefire still hotly disputed and no resolution in sight.
This political instability translates directly into profound anxiety for farmers. Andy DeVries, co-owner of a 1,200-acre soybean and corn farm in Iowa, articulates the sentiment of many: “If you have a calendar that you have always followed for planting season, you just basically have to throw that thing out the window, because everything has just had a bomb dropped on it.” He laments the lack of flexibility, describing farmers as “stuck between a rock and a hard place.”
DeVries and his brother annually procure between 80 to 85 tons of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer, typically locking in prices in August to prepare for the spring. However, the current crisis has rendered their foresight irrelevant. He reports that the local price of nitrogen fertilizer has surged by over 35 percent, while phosphorus fertilizer prices have climbed by 19 percent. These are not minor adjustments; such decisions involve tens of thousands of dollars, deeply eroding farmers’ profit margins, which have already been squeezed by rising oil costs, labor shortages due to immigration raids, climate change impacts, and tariffs. DeVries estimates that had he purchased his phosphorus fertilizer today, it would have cost him an additional $35,000.
The Strait of Hormuz has now been closed for more than a month, and the economic consequences are rapidly cascading through the supply chain. Jacqui Fatka, lead economist for farm supply and biofuels at CoBank, confirms that US fertilizer prices have escalated by 30 to 40 percent within the last four weeks alone.
Veronica Nigh emphasizes that the longer the closure and disruption of the Hormuz Strait persists, the more inevitable it becomes that these elevated fertilizer costs will be passed directly onto food prices. She explains, “If the closure lasts a month or two, the impact will be minimal. If it’s three to six months, it overlaps the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere, and the increase will find its way into food prices and availability.” While March and April imports were largely on target with demand expectations, Nigh warns, “It’s the May imports that we’re starting to worry about,” indicating that the critical window for intervention is rapidly closing.
Global Food Production’s Achilles’ Heel: Fertilizer
The Energy-Intensive Haber-Bosch Process
The production of nitrogen fertilizer relies heavily on a 113-year-old method known as the Haber-Bosch process. This industrial process, which has seen little fundamental change since its development in 1913, is intensely dependent on liquefied natural gas (LNG). It requires raw inputs such as water, natural gas, and nitrogen to produce ammonia, which is then further processed into various nitrogen fertilizers like urea and ammonium nitrate.
This process is a significant consumer of global energy, accounting for approximately 3-5 percent of the world’s total natural gas stores annually. Its efficiency is intrinsically linked to the affordability of natural gas. The global natural gas market was already strained by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine since 2022. The recent war in Iran, starting just a month ago, has exacerbated this pressure, causing LNG futures in the US to rise by 10 percent, while prices in Europe and Asia have doubled. This surge in energy costs directly inflates the cost of fertilizer production, which in turn elevates food prices globally.
The Global Disparity in Fertilizer Production
Nitrogen-based fertilizers are indispensable, constituting 59 percent of total global fertilizer use in 2023, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). A substantial 45 percent of this nitrogen fertilizer is dedicated to cultivating staple grains and cereal crops such as wheat, rice, and maize, which feed billions worldwide. In the US, it is also crucial for growing corn and soybeans, crops that not only feed humans but are also processed into animal feed and ethanol for gasoline.
While the United States produces roughly 80 percent of its own fertilizer domestically, its share of global fertilizer consumption is comparatively small, accounting for only about 10-15 percent, as per data from the University of Illinois. This disparity highlights a critical vulnerability: countries that make up the remaining 85-90 percent of global consumption are far less insulated from disruptions like the Hormuz blockade.
Lorenzo Rosa, a principal investigator at Carnegie Science specializing in the nexus of water, food, and energy, points out that the Haber-Bosch process demands economies of scale. There are only about 400 such facilities globally, primarily concentrated in the Global North, with very few in the Global South. This means that despite significant domestic production in the US, over 1.8 billion people around the world depend on imported natural gas and fertilizer for their very survival.
Policy Challenges and the Path Forward
Delayed Policy Responses
Researchers and policymakers have long recognized the vulnerabilities inherent in the Haber-Bosch process and have been working to improve or replace this chemical method. However, progress has been slow and hampered by various factors. The Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, for instance, allocated funding for the development of “green” and “blue” ammonia – cleaner alternatives that promise to reduce dependence on natural gas. Yet, these new facilities are not yet operational.
Adding to the complexity, under Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” the construction deadline for qualifying clean hydrogen and ammonia projects was accelerated from 2033 to 2028. This compressed timeline has ironically contributed to project cancellations and raised significant concerns among industry researchers about whether sufficient capacity can be brought online to meet demand. The current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has thus arrived before any viable alternative is ready to absorb such a shock.
Rosa emphasizes the inherent inflexibility of fertilizer production: “You can’t ramp production up and down, either.” Much like bringing a natural gas pipeline online, establishing new fertilizer production capacity can take anywhere from several months to several years, making rapid responses to sudden supply shocks incredibly difficult.
Compounding Supply Chain Fragilities
The impact of fertilizer shocks on consumers typically manifests with a delay, as these disruptions first affect farmers’ planting decisions and subsequent yields. Consequently, the most significant effects are projected to emerge later this year – during the late summer and fall harvests – becoming even more pronounced by the winter of 2027, according to global data from the International Fresh Produce Association.
Michigan State’s Ortega highlights the core of food insecurity: “Food insecurity arises because of issues of access, and because of issues of affordability. Food is being produced, but it’s not where people need it.” This crisis is not just about a lack of food, but a breakdown in the system that delivers it.
The gravest risk emanating from this fertilizer shock extends beyond mere cost increases; it involves a long-term shift in farmers’ behavior. If farmers are forced to use less fertilizer, this inevitably leads to lower crop yields. It may also compel them to switch to less nitrogen-intensive crops, moving away from staples like corn. Furthermore, farmers might delay planting or reduce their planted acreage altogether. According to IFPA research, these behavioral responses are precisely what trigger genuine food price inflation, lower overall output, and even fresh food shortages, ultimately leading to empty shelves in grocery stores.
Even if the US and Iran manage to negotiate a new ceasefire agreement in the coming days and agree to immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz, experts caution that it will take months for the waterway to fully reopen and provide safe, consistent passage for cargo ships. This timeline means the Northern Hemisphere will be deep into summer, long after farmers have had to make critical planting decisions based on the existing shortages and conflict.
Adding another layer of complexity, fertilizer and its raw feedstocks are notoriously difficult to store due to their highly combustible nature. Nigh explains that most producers maintain only a few weeks’ worth of stock before shipping it out, precisely because prolonged storage poses significant safety risks. Production plants operate year-round at full capacity, but demand is inherently “lumpy,” meaning it fluctuates significantly throughout the year.
Nigh warns of a looming crisis at the production end: “Right now facilities are reaching the point where they don’t have enough space, and they will be forced to shut down.” The implication is dire, as restarting a fertilizer plant, once shut down, can take anywhere from two weeks to a month, further exacerbating supply problems.
Ortega emphasizes the urgent need for systemic change: “This is an example of a shock where, when it comes to supply chains for agricultural inputs, we have to build resiliency into those systems.” He points out the inherent danger in the current setup: “The fact that a third of the world’s fertilizer flows through a very specific area that’s subject to conflict is a vulnerability we can’t ignore.”
Most experts concur that restoring the Strait of Hormuz to its normal shipping capacity will require several months. This delay will push the Northern Hemisphere well into summer, a period by which farmers will have already made irreversible decisions about what to plant and what to abandon due to the prevailing shortages and ongoing conflict.
Andy DeVries encapsulates the uncertainty faced by those on the front lines of food production: “You start to wonder what the new normal is.” He notes that even a single political tweet can cause prices for everything from corn and soybeans to fertilizers and seeds to fluctuate wildly. What farmers crave, he says, is consistency: “Just be consistent, so we know what to expect.” While confident in their resilience – “We’ve made it through worse times, we’ll figure it out and make it through this” – DeVries highlights the unfairness of the current situation: “the shock creates arbitrary winners and losers. Is this just the new normal?”
Conclusion: A Global Imperative for Resilience
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is more than a regional conflict; it is a stark reminder of the fragile interconnectedness of global supply chains and the profound impact geopolitical instability can have on fundamental human needs. The looming food crisis, characterized by rising fertilizer costs, reduced agricultural yields, and potential food shortages, underscores the urgent need for international cooperation to de-escalate conflicts and safeguard vital trade routes. Simultaneously, it serves as a critical call to action for governments and industry leaders to invest aggressively in diversifying fertilizer production, developing sustainable alternatives, and building robust, resilient agricultural supply chains that can withstand future shocks. The world cannot afford to ignore the vulnerability exposed by the Strait of Hormuz, as the stakes are nothing less than global food security and the stability of billions of lives.
