The Houthis’ seizure of Yemen’s Red Sea coast and strategic islands has put them in a position to threaten one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.
If they can seriously disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the consequences could extend far beyond Yemen, hitting oil supplies, global shipping, inflation and ultimately economic growth.
On Monday, Houthi fighters pushed to seize strategic heights in Yemen to cut off the Red Sea coast from remaining areas held by Saudi-backed forces.
A lightning advance by the Iran-backed group this month has extended the wider Middle East conflict to a new theatre and further threatened global energy supplies.
Oil prices surged above $100 last week after a drone strike shut a key Saudi oil pipeline, while Houthi advances threatened the Red Sea route Saudi Arabia was relying on to bypass the disrupted Strait of Hormuz.
And Washington has so far rebuffed repeated pleas from Saudi Arabia‘s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to join the fight in Yemen.
The Houthis, who have controlled Yemen’s capital since 2014, seized the country’s Red Sea coast this month in an advance that routed forces of the Saudi-backed government.
Saudi Arabia has launched hundreds of strikes in recent days on the fighters’ positions in the highlands, the Houthis say.
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A commercial vessel is anchored off Yemen’s coast at Bab al-Mandeb
The Houthis have retaliated with attacks on Saudi territory, including a strike targeting the capital Riyadh for the first time in years on Saturday.
It came days after Saudi Arabia accused the Houthis of targeting the holy city of Mecca, though the fighters denied the claim.
The Houthis have also carried out attacks against facilities belonging to Saudi oil giant Aramco in the Red Sea port city of Yanbu.
The militant group is now seeking to seize strategic heights, known as the Kahboub Mountains, in two provinces, Taiz and Lahij, which separate the Red Sea coast from the government-held south.
Fighting has centred on the outskirts of the remote mountain Al-Wazi’iyah district in Taiz province, and Ras al-Ara along the Indian Ocean coast between the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the Red Sea’s mouth and the government’s base in Aden, the sources said.
‘The government forces appear to remain largely in a defensive posture following the loss of the Bab el-Mandeb area, while the Houthis are seeking to maintain the momentum of their advance, despite being exposed to intensive air strikes,’ said Mohammed Al-Qadhi, a Yemeni political analyst.
‘These mountains could become critical to determining whether the Houthis succeed in consolidating their recent territorial gains or whether government forces will be able to retain the positions necessary to mount a counteroffensive.’
The Houthis have claimed they do not intend to impose formal transit fees on vessels passing through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
However, indications suggest that since launching their attacks on Red Sea shipping in 2023, the group has extracted informal payments from some shipping agencies in exchange for safe transit.
The Houthis have also said they are only targeting Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea.
But a ship carrying Saudi oil may be owned, operated, financed, insured or chartered by companies from several different countries. It may also be transporting goods or oil to a range of destinations.
As a result, Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked shipping can have commercial consequences far beyond Saudi Arabia, potentially affecting businesses and supply chains in countries including those in Europe and China.
The Houthis’ Red Sea advance risks cutting off the main alternative route Saudi Arabia has used for oil exports that bypass disruption through the Strait of Hormuz.
A drone attack on September 11 shut Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline. The pipeline is designed to allow Saudi Arabia to export oil without sending it through the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia has responded by increasing shipments through Hormuz, where a small number of tankers are increasingly shuttling back and forth to bring out oil, charging record fees of as much as a quarter of the cargo’s value to brave the wartime risk.
They then transfer the oil to other ships in the Indian Ocean, bound for customers in Asia or elsewhere.
Large plume of black smoke rises from the fuel storage area at King Khalid International Airport, in Riyadh
Houthi scout members participate in a protest against Saudi Arabia
A man walks in front of a mural symbolising restrictions on shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
US President Donald Trump (L) greets Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman
On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West Pipeline, initially at a low rate. Saudi Aramco is trying to restore flows towards roughly 4 million barrels per day, but returning to full capacity could take up to eight weeks because three pumping stations were damaged.
Traders say Saudi Arabia has sold 60 million barrels of oil both this month and next, to be loaded from off Oman on the far side of Hormuz.
Satellite data shows Saudi exports through Hormuz reaching 2.9 million barrels per day in recent days, up from just 700,000 in August.
That has helped put a cap on the global price of crude, which has retreated closer to $100 a barrel after approaching $110 last week.
But consumers and industries are still paying record prices for some refined fuels, with the US retail price of diesel hitting another all-time high on Monday.
The strait is one of the world’s most important routes for global seaborne commodity and goods shipments, particularly from Asia to Europe via the Suez Canal.
It is also vital for traffic from the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline on Egypt’s Red Sea coast, as well as commodities bound for Asia, including Russian oil.
It serves as the southern gateway to the Suez Canal, meaning ships must pass through it to access the canal from the south.
Disruption of shipping in the strait forces vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa, adding weeks and significant costs to what would otherwise be a straightforward journey.
Even partial disruption of the strait has proven devastating. Beginning in late 2023, the Houthis launched a sustained campaign of attacks on shipping in the southern Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb, which they said was in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza during the Hamas-Israel war.
The impact was immediate and far-reaching. Major shipping firms and oil companies, including Hapag-Lloyd, rerouted vessels away from the Suez Canal, circumnavigating the African continent instead.
Freight costs surged and journey times lengthened significantly.
The Houthis imposing a stranglehold over the waterway could give their sponsor Iran a critical advantage in its war with the US, which has already seen a sharp reduction in energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices soaring.
Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to about 7 per cent of global oil output in June, according to Kpler data.
The surge in fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis also creates a dilemma for Trump, who is under pressure to help Saudi allies but anxious not to expand further the deeply unpopular war he launched as ‘Operation Epic Fury’ in February against Iran.
The United States bombed the Houthis for two months in early 2025, but Trump called off those strikes after reaching a ceasefire, and has kept out of the Yemen conflict since.
The New York Times reported that the Trump administration had prepared to launch airstrikes on Sunday against the Houthis after fresh pleas from the Saudi crown prince.
Yemeni fishermen pass by a commercial ship at the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Women and children, who fled fighting between the Houthis and government forces in Red Sea coastline areas, walk at a camp for internally displaced people near Aden, Yemen
Yemeni refugees receive aid at Markazi Refugee Camp in Obock, Djibouti
But the newspaper said Trump called off the airstrikes at the last minute, even as troops were loading bombs onto aircraft.
Rashid al-Alimi, the Riyadh-based president of Yemen’s Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government, asked Trump by phone on Sunday for US military help, according to four sources.
Two of the people, one Yemeni and one Western, said Trump made no direct pledge of support during the call.
In the latest reported attack in Hormuz, Britain’s UKMTO maritime security agency said a ship sailing into the strait had been hit with a projectile, causing minor injuries to crew. It also said it had learned of an earlier strike on a gas tanker.
Diplomacy in the wider conflict has largely been stalled since a June interim agreement between the United States and Iran collapsed within weeks.
According to the United Nations, nearly 700 people have been killed and thousands injured in the flare-up in fighting between Saudi-backed forces and the Houthis.
Nearly 130,000 Yemenis have fled homes within Yemen, and more than 3,000 have fled by boat across the Red Sea to Africa.
The Houthis accused Saudi Arabia on Tuesday of launching a wave of deadly strikes that killed civilians and prison inmates, as Riyadh seeks to repel the offensive.
The foreign ministers of the G7 condemned on Monday the ‘unacceptable continued strikes’ waged from Yemen against Saudi Arabia and urged the Iran-backed group to immediately hold fire.
‘We call on the Houthis to immediately cease all military actions, all threats and attacks against civilian shipping, and to return to the political process in good faith,’ the officials representing Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States said in a statement.
They also called on Iran ‘to end its arming of and support for the Houthis,’ alleging Tehran is in violation of past UN Security Council resolutions.
