A shock poll has revealed a dramatic collapse in Labor support in the Melbourne stronghold of Footscray, with One Nation overtaking Labor on primary votes in a seat the party has held for almost a century.
The Greens-commissioned survey of 1,000 voters, conducted between September 22 and October 1, puts One Nation on 28.6 per cent of the primary vote, narrowly ahead of Labor on 27.5 per cent.
The result marks a stunning reversal in a seat where Labor secured 43.1 per cent of the primary vote at the 2022 Victorian election.
If reflected at the ballot box, the figures would represent a 15.6 percentage point collapse in Labor’s primary vote in just four years.
The poll places the Liberals on 15.1 per cent, the Greens on 14.9 per cent, and other parties and independents on a combined 13.9 per cent.
Footscray has been held by Labor continuously since its creation in 1927 and forms part of the party’s traditional heartland in Melbourne’s west.
The electorate covers Footscray, Maidstone, Maribyrnong, Seddon, West Footscray and parts of Yarraville.
At the 2022 election, Labor MP Katie Hall, who was first elected in 2018, won 43.1 per cent of the primary vote before defeating the Greens on preferences.
One Nation polled a 28.6 per cent primary in an internal Greens poll for the seat of Footscray
The Greens finished second with 22.4 per cent, while the Liberals secured 17.9 per cent.
A Greens spokesperson has disputed the poll – claiming their vote in the electorate is over 30 per cent – despite it being leaked by Greens and Labor sources.
One Nation’s candidate for the seat is Alexander Lopez, a financial controller who, according to his candidate profile, has spent more than three decades working across transport and logistics, manufacturing, recycling, automation and commercial property management.
Born in Argentina, he migrated to Australia in 1975 and grew up in Melbourne’s western suburbs after his family settled in Footscray.
He attended Hyde Street Primary School and remains involved in the local community, including playing masters football.
The polling presents an equally serious warning for the Greens, who entered the last election as Labor’s main challenger in Footscray.
In 2022, Greens candidate Elena Pereyra won 22.4 per cent of the primary vote and ultimately reached the final count against Ms Hall.
The new poll suggests Greens support has fallen sharply, leaving the party behind both One Nation and Labor.
For Labor, however, the numbers are potentially more alarming.
Ben Carroll (pictured) is under pressure as Labor’s vote has collapsed in polls since 2022
Footscray has long been regarded as one of the safest seats in Victoria, with Labor never losing the electorate in its 99-year history.
The internal Footscray polling reflects broader trends across Victoria, where Labor continues to struggle in public polls ahead of the November election.
A Freshwater Strategy poll of 1,030 voters conducted between September 24 and 28 found Labor’s primary vote had slipped one point since August to 24 per cent, while the Coalition also fell one point to 29 per cent.
One Nation remained steady at 22 per cent, while the Greens were unchanged on 14 per cent.
The survey put the Coalition ahead of Labor 53-47 on a two-party preferred basis, representing an eight-point swing against the government compared with the 2022 election and a one-point improvement for the Coalition since Freshwater’s August poll.
Opposition Leader Jess Wilson topped the poll as preferred Premier with 37 per cent, while Ben Carroll was in second at 30 per cent.
One Nation Victorian leader Warren Pickering was preferred premier by just 13 per cent of voters.
