Donald Trump‘s new 10 per cent ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on Australian exports to the US could end up costing local consumers more at the supermarket checkout.
The American president slammed Australia for refusing to relax its strict biosecurity measures that banned imports of American beef, saying that justified the introduction of a tariff.
‘Australia bans — and they’re wonderful people, and wonderful everything — but they ban American beef,’ he said.
‘Yet we imported $US3 billion dollars of Australian beef from them just last year alone.
‘They won’t take any of our beef.
‘They don’t want it because they don’t want it to affect their farmers – and I don’t blame them – but we’re doing the same thing right now starting at midnight tonight.’
A kilogram of rump steak at Woolworths is now selling for $28.
But the Australian Food Sovereignty Alliance, representing 350 small-scale farmers, fears rump steak will end up costing Australian consumers $56 at the supermarket.
Donald Trump ‘s new 10 per cent ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on all Australian exports to the US could end up costing local consumers more.
If a trade war erupts over beef, many countries may switch away from the US product and instead buy from Australia.
That increased demand will see a lot of Australian beef exported which will reduce the amount sold on the local market, and the consequent shortage could send prices spiralling at local supermarkets and butchers.
Tammi Jonas, an organic beef cattle producer from Daylesford in Victoria and spokeswoman for the Australian Food Sovereignty Alliance, said the increased global demand for Aussie meat is good news for graziers but a potential nightmare for local consumers.
‘We already know there’s high demand for Australian beef around the world and I think that’s just going to get higher,’ she told Daily Mail Australia.
‘In a global supply crunch like this, we could see rump steak climb past $50 per kilogram.
‘That’s not a family dinner – that’s a premium luxury.’
Dr Jonas said higher prices available to graziers on the export market would see less product sold locally despite the likely sharp drop in shipping to the US.
‘I would say there’s a strong likelihood of that, yes,’ she said.
A kilogram of rump steak at Woolworths is now selling for $28 (pictured is a Woolworths supermarket)
‘And even if we still have enough beef sold within Australia, the prices are certain to go up.
‘Whenever you’re in those global markets, you roll with the volatility and if they can get a really high price overseas, they’re not going to charge less for domestic sales.’
But Angus Gidley-Baird, a senior analyst in animal protein with RaboResearch, said the local market was the core for Australian producers so prices will still be largely determined by local conditions.
‘We produced record volumes of beef last year, I don’t see why there would be a shortage in the domestic market that would cause prices to rise,’ he told Daily Mail Australia.
‘The exports are effectively our markets that we sell the additional production into.’
Australia has been slapped with blanket 10 per cent tariffs, as had the UK, Singapore, Brazil and Chile.
But China is being hit with a much higher 34 per cent tariff, along with 25 per cent for South Korea and 24 per cent for Japan.
Meat and Livestock Australia data showed the US was Australia’s biggest market for beef exports in 2024, putting it well ahead of Japan, South Korea and China.
Australia has been slapped with blanket 10 per cent tariffs, in line with the UK, Singapore, Brazil and Chile. But China is being hit with a much higher 34 per cent tariff, compared with 25 per cent for South Korea and 24 per cent for Japan
Of the Australian beef sent to the United States, 96 per cent of it was the leaner, grass fed variety that was either chilled or frozen.
The Americans have been in the grip of a drought, and most of their beef is fattier, grain-fed.
South American beef exporters Argentina and Brazil are also dealing with a lack of rainfall.
Like Australia, they would also be subjected to 10 per cent tariffs into the US, which means other beef producing nations are under similar pressure.
‘If it’s a large tariff but applied to everyone, our competitive position remains the same,’ Mr Gidley-Baird said.
The Australian Agricultural Company, Australia’s biggest integrated beef producer, and Elders are set to face share market pressure on Thursday as a result of the tariffs.
Australian meat exports to the US were last year worth $4.2billion with 400,000 tonnes of beef sent to the American market.
Moomoo market strategist Jessica Amir said Australia’s biggest export to the US was under serious threat.
The Australian Food Sovereignty Alliance fears rump steak will end of costing Australian consumers $56 at the supermarket. Spokeswoman Tammi Jonas (left) said the American tariffs on agricultural imports would see more countries buy Australian beef to avoid trading with the US
‘Donald Trump said “no more”. Just like that, Australia’s biggest export to the US seems hit,’ she said.
‘It sounds like Trump is going to ban imports of Australian beef, but no one can be sure yet as we await more detail.’
Mr Gidley-Baird thought a ban unlikely given the Americans are still going to want leaner, Australian grass-fed beef to make hamburger patties, even if they are now going to be 10 per cent more expensive.
‘The US still continues to need imported product because they’re not producing as much themselves,’ he said.
‘They’ll still need Australian beef – the drought, it’s getting better in the US but they’ve liquidated their herd and production volumes are down.
‘What Australia sends to the US complements their production system over there in that it balances out the fatter product they’re producing for hamburger production.
‘They need the product and we’re one of the biggest suppliers of it – me being rational would still say that they would still buy it.’
Strong American demand for grass-fed beef had pushed up prices for Australian lean mince, now selling for $15.50 a kilo at Woolworths.
‘The US market has been very strong – it’s demanding a fair amount of product which is putting a bit of pressure on mince prices, lean product prices,’ Mr Gidley-Baird said.
The Australian Food Sovereignty Alliance sees mince prices more than doubling to $36 a kilo.
But Dr Jonas predicted tariffs on Australian beef would see American demand plunge, despite the fact they are in drought with an undersupply of grass-fed beef.
‘Americans are in as big a cost-of-living crisis as Australians are,’ she said.
The Australian Food Sovereignty Alliance didn’t do specific economic modelling on Australian beef prices ahead of the tariff decision.
But it noted that China’s swine flu in 2019 led to a doubling of pork prices, as supply fell by 40 per cent.
The alliance campaigns against agribusiness giants like JBS Foods Australia, which owns feedlots and abattoirs.
‘The local farmers like us are losing access to the facilities to slaughter,’ Dr Jonas said.
‘While that sounds like a good thing for Australia – when we think, “We can export more” – the reality of that is very few people profit from that higher export.’
The latest ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on Australian agriculture exports follow 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium, introduced on March 12.
Australian Industry Group chief executive Innes Willox said the price of American-made manufactured goods was likely to rise as tariffs were levied on Australian exports of metals, chemicals and engineered products needed for production.
‘At least 50 per cent of goods moving around the world are intermediate goods – not finished products, but their components,’ he said.
‘This means the impacts will be far reaching and go much further than just the products subject to the tariffs.’
