A highly respected election commentator who’s set to retire after 40 years in the business has revealed Anthony Albanese is likely to win the federal election.
Antony Green, 65, made the admission to Sydney Morning Herald columnist and author Peter FitzSimons on Saturday in one of his last interviews as the ABC’s chief election analyst.
Green joined the ABC in 1989, after previously working for a polling company, and will anchor his last election on May 3 when Australians take to the voting booths.
FitzSimons said it appeared ‘Anthony Albanese will form a government of some kind’ with Green noting how the tide had significantly turned for the Prime Minister.
‘A lot of people are saying that halfway through the election campaign who weren’t saying that three weeks ago, which shows how quickly things can change,’ he said.
The latest Redbridge Group poll, which was released on Saturday, revealed Labor had pulled ahead of the Coalition just two weeks out from the election date.
It marks a significant comeback for Mr Albanese who was trailing behind Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in January.
Green argued the shift could be credited to Mr Albanese taking on ‘a lot of media training over the summer’.
Antony Green (pictured) will retire after the 2025 federal election, set to be held on May 3
Green pointed to Anthony Albanese (pictured on Channel Nine’s NRL Footy Show on Sunday) as the winner of the election, noting he seemingly had ‘a lot of media training over the summer’
‘He’s sticking much closer to being “on message”, getting his lines right and has looked activated and interested,’ he said.
However, in comparison to Labor’s clean-cut campaign, Liberal leader Peter Dutton has been left looking ‘amateurish’.
‘(The Coalition) doesn’t look as well organised as the Labor campaign,’ Green said.
‘Where are the announcements? Where’s the detail? And the measure I always use is, who’s got the most interesting pictures?
‘They are the pictures that so much of the population is influenced by, those people who don’t follow the politics closely.
‘And at the moment, Anthony Albanese looks happy and engaged every day in the stories, meeting interesting people, while Peter Dutton doesn’t seem nearly as engaged.
‘The Coalition campaign looks a little lifeless, as though preparing for something else.’
Green also touched on how the political climate in America has affected Aussies’ view of right-wing parties, like Mr Dutton’s.
Green claimed the Coalition’s campaign seemed unpolished in comparison to Labor’s (pictured, Mr Albanese and Peter Dutton during the second leaders’ debate)
In particular, Green noted a severe lack of engaging photos from the Coalition and Peter Dutton (pictured on Sunday)
‘The other thing that’s going on is what’s happening in America, with all the upheaval and change and flip-flops going on over there,’ Green said.
‘The Coalition’s tide has gone out with Trump. Do people want to start flip-flopping and changing government here? The mob does not want that.’
Although many voters still remember Mr Albanese’s failed referendum for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament, several polls have favoured him as the next PM.
Green highlighted a recent poll by Resolve, published by SMH.
‘They’ve now picked up something which is occurring in every opinion poll – there’s been a real change of mood,’ he said.
‘Perhaps the Labor Party has finally escaped the whole follow-up from the Voice referendum, which dogged them all through last year.
‘I don’t think anyone wants to talk about it any more, and so everyone’s just moved on.’
As for the veteran election reporter’s ‘gut feeling’ on the May result, Green believed the Coalition’s turnaround could be too little, too late.
Green’s ‘gut feeling’ was that Labor would win the election, believing it was too late for the Coalition to redeem itself
‘The Coalition is going to struggle to make up enough seats to get ahead of Labor,’ he said.
‘If the Labor Party’s vote holds up in Victoria, it’s nearly impossible for the Coalition to get more seats than Labor.
‘The ALP will lose seats in Victoria, mainly in the eastern suburbs, but the question is whether the swing gets beyond those marginal seats that have been fought over the last couple of years and goes deeper, which currently looks unlikely.
‘The problem for the Coalition is there are school holidays and public holidays for the next two weeks. So how do they get their message across when people are concentrating on other things?’
The 2025 federal election will be held on Saturday, May 3.
Early voting, for those unable to attend their local polling place on election day, will open on Tuesday, April 22.
It is compulsory for all eligible Australian citizens to participate in the election.
