With the parliamentary year now over, and after Labor rushed through no less than 31 bills in its final days, attention has turned to when the Prime Minister will call next year’s election.
Daily Mail Australia has spoken to two well-placed Labor strategists who explained the upsides and downsides for Anthony Albanese of bringing the election date forward, rather than waiting until after the budget and serving a full parliamentary term as promised.
‘If we go early that would mean holding the election in late February or sometime before the end of March’, one Labor MP with inside knowledge of campaign strategy said.
‘An election on February 22 would require Albo to call the election no later than Sunday, January 19. Or he could do it around Australia Day and have the election on March 1 instead.’
With an interest rate cut early in the new year looking less and less likely, the MP said going early becomes a good option because it would avoid having to hand down a budget in April ‘covered in wall-to-wall red numbers’.
Next year’s budget is expected to reveal a sizeable budget deficit for the current fiscal year – as well as all four years after that.
‘By going early we can campaign on having delivered two straight budget surpluses and take advantage of our campaign overlapping with the state [election] campaign in WA.’
The Western Australian election date is fixed for March 8, and the state Liberals in WA are in disarray.
If Anthony Albanese leaves the election to the last minute, it’s in the hopes he can turn things around, Labor insiders told Daily Mail Australia
Anthony Albanese launched his 2022 election campaign in Perth and Labor picked up five seats that helped to secure majority government, benefiting from the popularity of then WA Labor Premier Mark McGowan.
It is even possible Albo calls the election for the same day that the WA election is due, forcing the state to delay its poll.
The Australian Electoral Commission has asked for a two-week gap between the elections, but that’s not required by law.
The other Labor strategist thinks that there are too many risks calling the election on or before the Australia Day weekend.
‘That might piss voters off’, he said. ‘Nobody wants an election campaign starting during that time of year. January is sacred time off for Australians.’
The other option for an early election would be to let parliament sit for a week or two in February ‘before calling it to happen in late March or even early April’.
‘That way we get the WA election out of the way but still get to the polls before having to hand down a difficult budget with a big deficit’, the strategist said.
‘As soon as an election is called the budget gets delayed.’
![One of the party insiders was confident Labor would be able to 'paint Peter [Dutton] as extreme'](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/11/29/03/92610991-14139059-image-a-5_1732852173998.jpg)
One of the party insiders was confident Labor would be able to ‘paint Peter [Dutton] as extreme’
That opens up the prospect of an early election anytime before May, as long as it doesn’t clash with Easter.
Both Labor insiders agree that whether the election is held in late February or sometime in March or April, the government will also be sure to preface the formal campaign with a barrage of taxpayer-funded advertising.
‘Of course, that always helps’, one says.
Labor’s decision to rush so many bills through parliament this year has created speculation that despite promising to serve a full term ahead of a May election, Anthony Albanese is considering going early.
One reason is that it would allow him to take advantage of the uncertainty expected to follow Donald Trump’s return as U.S. President.
Trump’s inauguration will take place on January 20, which is Wednesday, January 21, here in Australia.
‘We wouldn’t choose to directly criticise the uncertainty Trump’s return is likely to generate – obviously’, the Labor MP said.
‘But our messaging would be that in uncertain times you are better off sticking with the government you know, and not risking electing someone like Peter Dutton.
‘It’s a pretty good theme for us.’
Coming soon, on January 20: Labor also hopes it will be able to capitalise on the global uncertainty caused by Donald Trump’s return to office in America
The second Labor strategist agrees: ‘Trump’s return might work for us. Sure he’s popular over there and he won, but our electoral system is different and voting is compulsory in Australia.’
‘You need to carry the centre with you and painting Peter [Dutton] as extreme shouldn’t be that hard’, he adds.
‘But ultimately it’s Albo’s call,’ the Labor MP points out.
‘He’ll take advice from those around him and he’ll know what the polling says, but if he’s worried going early might be too risky he’ll hold off in the hope things get better.’
No first-term government has lost a re-election attempt since 1931, but the Albanese government is currently behind in the published polls.
Laughing, the Labor MP said: ‘Albo might not want to become the turkey who “brought forward Thanksgiving” by calling an early election if he thinks he’ll lose.
‘He might not even want to do it if he looks like being reduced to leading a minority government either.’
Either way, the odds of an early election appear to have shortened now that the sun has set on the 2024 parliamentary year.
‘Basically he’ll call it when he thinks he can win. If he’s worried he can’t win he’ll just hold off until the very last minute hoping that things turn around.’
