A hung parliament is now looking less likely as the Albanese government extends its lead over the Coalition.
With less than four weeks to go before Aussies head to the polls on May 3, Labor has taken a 52-48 lead over the Coalition on a two-party basis in the latest Newspoll for The Australian, despite its primary vote staying static at 33 per cent.
While the Coalition remains ahead with 36 per cent of the primary vote despite a one point drop to its lowest level since June 2024, the preference flow to Labor from the Greens and other minor parties has made the government more likely to retain power in its own right.
The last time Labor led the Coalition 52-48 on a two-party preferred basis was almost a year ago in May 2024.
It now mirrors the 2022 federal election result, where Labor formed a majority government.
The Coalition will take heart that Peter Dutton has retained a substantial lead over Anthony Albanese on who is considered the more decisive and stronger leader – 62 per cent to 48 per cent.
With the opening of pre-polls just a fortnight away, the Opposition Leader has also narrowed Mr Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister to just eight points.
Mr Dutton (61 per cent) is also narrowly ahead of the Prime Minster (60 per cent) on who has the best vision for Australia.
Labor has surged to a 52-48 lead over the Coalition on a two-party basis in the latest Newspoll. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and fiancee Jodie Haydon are pictured on Sunday
Peter Dutton has retained a substantial lead over Anthony Albanese on who is considered the more decisive and stronger leader. Mr Dutton is pictured with Katie Mullens, the Liberal candidate for Parramatta
On the question of being in touch with voters, Mr Albanese leads by 49 per cent to 43 per cent, while on trustworthiness, the Prime Minister leads the Opposition Leader by 52 per cent to 40 per cent.
Among the minor parties – whose preference flows will determine who wins the election – One Nation is on 7 per cent, the Greens are on 12 per cent, and other small parties and independents such as the teal candidates are also on 12 per cent.
Labor’s 52-48 lead after preferences is almost the exact same as the result of the 2022 federal election, when it got 52.1 per cent and won a three-seat majority.
Its primary vote three years ago was 32.6 per cent, while the Coalition under then leader Scott Morrison got 35.7 per cent.
As the election campaign kicks up a gear, neither potential prime minister is proving all that popular with voters.
Mr Albanese’s approval rating fell a point to 42 per cent against a rise in dissatisfaction to 53 per cent in the latest poll.
Mr Dutton’s approval rating went up a point to 38 per cent, while his dissatisfaction rate stayed the same at 55 per cent.
Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (left) is pictured talking with Opposition leader Peter Dutton at the Wishing Tree at Parliament House in Canberra in November 2024
A combined picture of Opposition leader Peter Dutton (left) drinking a beer at the XXXX beer factory and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese drinking a Bundaberg Ginger Beer. Both pictures were taken on March 29, 2025
The head-to-head contest over who would make the better prime minister saw Mr Dutton go up two points to 40 per cent while Mr Albanese dropped a point to 48 per cent.
The Coalition’s primary vote of 36 per cent, which has been falling in most recent polls, is now at its lowest level since June 2024.
Just three months ago, in January, the Coalition had an eight-point lead over Labor on the primary vote, leading by 39 per cent to 31 per cent at the time.
Last November, the Coalition’s primary vote was 40 per cent, meaning it has fallen by four per cent in just five months.
Some of that loss is likely to have gone to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which is now polling at seven per cent, which is a two per cent rise from its result in the 2022 election.
The disappointing poll for the Coalition comes on the same day that Mr Dutton dumped a Liberal candidate for comments he made about women.
Benjamin Britton, who was running in the NSW seat of Whitlam south of Sydney, called for all women to be removed from frontline roles in the Australian Defence Force (ADF).
Aussies will go to the polls on Saturday May 3. Pictured are voters casting their vote in 2022
Speaking on a right-wing podcast last August, Mr Britton said the ADF ‘need to remove females from combat corps’ in order to ‘fix’ our military.
But after being roundly condemned for his comments in recent days, the Liberals announced on Sunday that Mr Britton was no longer its candidate and removed his profile from the party’s website.
‘This follows a decision to disendorse Benjamin Britton over views expressed which were not previously disclosed and are inconsistent with the party’s position,’ a statement read.
