Mussa Dankwah is the Executive Director of the Global InfoAnalytics
Executive Director of the Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, has predicted that the National Democratic Congress (NDC) is more likely to elect an Akan candidate as its flagbearer for the 2028 general elections.
Sharing details from newly released polling data on Monday, January 12, 2026, Dankwah noted that ethnicity is playing a more significant role than religion in shaping the internal dynamics of the NDC’s potential flagbearer race.
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He stated that whoever leads the NDC into the 2028 elections will likely be the candidate who can appeal across multiple ethnic groups, not just their own.
“Earlier, we showed that ethnicity may influence our elections more than religion and who leads NDC in 2028 will be determined by the candidate who can form broader coalition within the NDC ethnic groupings as polling data shows a strong showing for the Akan candidates among Ewe and Ga Adangbe groups while the Mole-Dagbani voters consolidate around Haruna Iddrisu,” he stated.
The pollster added that according to data, a notable 76% of Akan votes are split among various Akan candidates, with 17% going to Haruna Iddrisu, a non-Akan candidate.
Haruna Iddrisu leads decisively among Mole-Dagbani voters, as 51% of that demographic’s vote consolidates in his favor.
“The polling data shows that 76% of the Akan votes is shared by Asiedu Nketia, Ato Forson, Julius Debrah, Eric Opoku and Prof Jane Opoku-Agyemang, with 17% go to Haruna Iddrisu. On the other hand, 51% of the Mole-Dagbani votes consolidates for Haruna Iddrisu but a significant portion, 43% still go to the Akan candidates in the race,” he indicated.
The pattern, which continues across other ethnic groups, indicates that “69% of Ga-Adangbe votes accrue to the Akan candidates compared to 20% for Haruna and 4% to Joshua Alabi.”
Similarly, among Ewe voters, 67% of the vote favors Akan candidates. Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa, an Ewe candidate, has accrued 15%, trailing Haruna Iddrisu, who holds 16%.
“Among the Ewes, 67% of their votes accrue to Akan candidates, while Haruna secures 16% and Ablakwa, 15%,” Dankwah added.
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Drawing his conclusion directly from the figures, Dankwah stated that the numbers point toward the party electing an Akan candidate as leader.
“This analysis makes it more likely that NDC will elect an Akan to lead them into 2028. This is the DATA, you can choose to fight it or work with it,” he concluded.
The ethnicity poll was conducted on eight candidates, including Vice President Professor Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, Professor Joshua Alabi, Eric Opoku, Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa, Haruna Iddrisu, Ato Forson, Julius Debrah, and Johnson Asiedu Nketiah.
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MAG/EB
Meanwhile, watch as NDC MPs and party leadership pay tribute to late Naser Toure Mahama
