Mussa Dankwah is the Executive Director of Global Info Analytics
The Executive Director of Global Info Analytics, Mussa Dankwah, has reacted to the outcome of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) parliamentary primaries for the Ayawaso East Constituency, which, for the first time, defies his predictions.
Mussa Dankwah, who rightly predicted the outcome of almost every recent public election in Ghana, had predicted that Hajia Amina Adam, the widow of the late MP for Ayawaso East, Mahama Naser Toure, was going to win the primaries.
However, at the end of voting, the High Commissioner of Ghana to Nigeria, Mohammed Baba Jamal Ahmed, who has now been recalled, emerged victorious.
Speaking in an interview on Channel One TV after the announcement of the election results on Saturday, February 7, 2026, Mussa Dankwah blamed the high level of voting in the primaries for the outcome, which contradicted his polling.
He slammed the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) for condoning the high level of voter inducement in the election.
“During the voting, we all saw what was happening, and it’s very unfortunate that I think the NDC, in the General Secretary, the way he spoke, he acknowledged that issue from the beginning. I would have thought, as a party that takes this very seriously, you would apologise to Ghanaians.
“I think they have succeeded in equalising what the NPP did in the past, and that is a blow to what we thought was going to be reset. I mean, we cannot continue on this path as a country that is seeking to grow our democracy. It’s absolutely shocking, but when you’re dealing with a sample of small people and money of that size is used, certainly with people with low income and poverty levels high, no jobs, I think anything can happen,” he said.
He added, “Indeed, if you look at the difference between what the end result was and our prediction, 7% outside the margin of error on one of the models is not too far, but you can imagine what television sets could do to get 7%.”
Prior to the election, Global Info Analytics had projected Hajia Amina Adam as the frontrunner with around 54% support, while Baba Jamal’s backing was expected to remain below 38%. However, the actual results proved significantly different.
According to the final results, Baba Jamal secured 431 votes to defeat his closest contender, Hajia Amina Adam, who polled 399 votes. Mohammed Ramne obtained 88 votes, and Dr Yakubu Azimdow garnered 45 votes, while Najib Sani received one vote.
Ayawaso East NDC Primaries: Global InfoAnalytics forecast misses mark
Watch the interview below:
BAI
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