Sir Keir Starmer will be ousted as Prime Minister within a year, an exclusive poll for The Mail on Sunday has predicted – with furious voters attacking his poor handling of the economy, the NHS, immigration and the cost-of-living crisis.
Nearly a third of all Britons polled in the ‘state of the nation’ survey expect the Labour leader to last another year at most, with more than two thirds (68 per cent) saying he is doing ‘badly’, just six months into the job.
And in news that will worry both Labour and the Conservatives, one in five voters thinks that Nigel Farage will be Britain’s next Prime Minister.
The bombshell poll comes as speculation mounts in Westminster over Sir Keir’s future after a dismal start to his premiership.
Since Labour’s landslide victory last July, the party has been dogged by a series of missteps, including rows over changes to farmers’ inheritance tax reliefs, a tax raid on private school fees and freebies from donors and lobbyists.
Last night, one Labour MP said privately: ‘If this poll doesn’t ring alarm bells in No10, then we really are doomed.
‘Sadly, it confirms what I and other Labour colleagues are now finding on the doorstep.
‘There never was much support for Keir. But after a catalogue of blunders – from scrapping winter fuel payments to hiking taxes – what little support there was for the Prime Minister has collapsed.’
Nearly a third of all Britons polled in the ‘state of the nation’ survey expect the Labour leader to last another year at most
One in five voters thinks that Nigel Farage will be Britain’s next Prime Minister
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and shadow chancellor Mel Stride are narrowly seen as a better alternative to Sir Keir and Chancellor Rachel Reeves in handling the economy
The exclusive Deltapoll survey reveals that 69 per cent think the country is heading in the wrong direction, with the cost-of-living crisis and the state of the NHS topping the list of concerns.
Some 33 per cent said they are particularly worried about the economy, while 14 per cent said they are anxious about the effects of high taxes on themselves and their families.
Fifteen per cent are concerned about record immigration, with more than six in ten saying they think the number of immigrants coming to the UK should be decreased. Some 68 per cent want to see the Government introduce a cap on the number of legal migrants allowed into the UK each year.
Despite this, Labour still lead on voting intention, with 30 per cent of those polled saying they plan to support the party at the next General Election, compared with 23 per cent for the Conservatives and 22 per cent for Reform.
However Labour are behind the Tories on both leadership and economic management. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and shadow chancellor Mel Stride are narrowly seen as a better alternative to Sir Keir and Chancellor Rachel Reeves in handling the economy.
Among Labour voters, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner tops the list as the likely successor in No10, while respondents who voted Conservative at the last election support a comeback for Boris Johnson to frontline politics.
The polling comes as MPs tomorrow debate a petition calling for a rerun of the General Election, after it gained 2.8million signatures.
The result of the Westminster Hall debate cannot cause a re-run of the vote, but the popular petition has been used by Ms Badenoch to taunt Sir Keir that it showed ‘two million people asking him to go’.
Among Labour voters, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner tops the list as the likely successor in No10
While respondents who voted Conservative at the last election support a comeback for Boris Johnson to frontline politics
Last night, Labour sources said that pressure will mount on the Prime Minister if he suffers a string of losses in May’s local elections and any by-elections, and if he fails to get the small boats crisis under control.
One added last night: ‘The party will turn against him. It is very difficult to oust a Labour leader, but he could become a lame duck prime minister and the pressure would mount on him to go.’
MPs also privately pointed out that while ‘people are angry’, it is hard to see a route out of Downing Street for Sir Keir. ‘It’s very hard to get rid of a Labour leader,’ one said. ‘You can’t just have men in grey suits telling them to go.’
Others said that the number of Labour MPs with thin majorities – who fear losing their seats unless polling improves – will also start to pile pressure on Sir Keir.
One Labour insider said: ‘If he’s not prepared to be bold on policies like the small boats, on benefits, then what’s the point of him? Virtually all the seats are marginal. If MPs start revolting, then there’ll be pressure on him to go.’
Joe Twyman, co-founder and director of Deltapoll, said: ‘Just six months since arriving in Downing Street, Keir Starmer’s poll rating may well be causing concern. With potentially more than four years until the election, there will be some who believe that the Prime Minister has plenty of time to turn things around.
‘But the direction of travel in the polls has been downwards and without an improvement in economic circumstances, significantly improving the numbers may well turn out to be difficult.
‘While not exactly a Winter of Discontent, this is clearly a Winter of Dissatisfaction and as 2025 begins, the polls will not bring new year cheer to the Labour Party.
Last night, Labour sources said that pressure will mount on the Prime Minister if he suffers a string of losses in May’s local elections and any by-elections, and if he fails to get the small boats crisis under control
‘Across many measures, the public are clearly disappointed, and Keir Starmer will be hoping that things can be turned around in the new year. A more positive outlook on the economy from the British public will be key.’
But one Labour source dismissed claims that Sir Keir could soon be gone as Prime Minister, saying: ‘The public has got used to huge instability at the top of government. They expect prime ministers to change every five minutes.
‘Keir was elected to bring an end to that chaos. That is exactly what he will do. If that means digging in through some tough times and showing we can deliver change in the long term, that’s what he will do.’
- Deltapoll interviewed 1,144 British adults online between December 30, 2024 – January 3, 2025. The data have been weighted to be representative of the British adult population as a whole.
