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Ghana could meet its debt anchor by 2034 even if the primary surplus target is relaxed from 1.5 to 0.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) starting in 2027.
This is provided that consolidation remains supported by credible reforms.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this relaxation is supported by substantial in-built safeguards in staff’s fiscal space framework, including a prudently calibrated debt anchor, set below the respective Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) thresholds to ensure a high probability that debt remains within safe bounds based on Ghana‑specific debt dynamics and allowing for volatility in interest‑growth differentials, primary balances, and sizeable stock‑flow adjustments.
In its country report on Ghana, the Fund also said Ghana’s large development needs and considerable debt sustainability gains warrant a reassessment of the appropriate medium-term fiscal stance.
In 2025, it pointed out that the authorities adopted Public Financial Management (PFM) Act amendments, including a 45% of GDP legislative debt anchor to be achieved by 2034, and an operational target of 1.5% of GDP primary surplus on a commitment basis.
“Recent debt reduction gains and large development needs have raised concerns about the excessively tight medium-term fiscal stance under the current operational target”, it explained.
It added that the lowering of the fiscal primary surplus will be supported by an ambitious package of fiscal structural reforms to contain quasi‑fiscal pressures and safeguard debt sustainability.
“Closing revenue administration gaps and improving tax compliance will help strengthen domestic revenue mobilisation.
On the expenditure side, the Fund said the strong PFM measures will help contain stock-flow adjustments. In addition, enhancing SOE oversight and advancing sectoral structural reforms will limit contingent liability risks, particularly in the cocoa and energy sectors.
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