Fears that Putin will deploy ‘tactical nuclear weapons‘ against Ukraine are growing as Russia becomes increasingly frustrated and diplomatic hopes crumble.
Voices in Moscow calling for nuclear warheads are becoming louder, and the President is surveying his options for escalation, according to sources.
Ukraine and Russia have ramped up attacks against each other in recent months, with Kyiv landing significant strikes deep inside Russian territory against its oil infrastructure.
Meanwhile, negotiations have all but collapsed, with little hope on either side of a peace deal being found.
The Kremlin is adamant it will not end the war under pressure from sanctions or Ukrainian attacks on its refineries.
It is also increasingly indignant at Nato allies supplying Ukraine with weapons and intelligence – leading to threats against the UK that Prime Minister Andy Burnham this week branded ‘outrageous’.
Putin’s conclusion is that he need to intensify his attacks on Ukraine, three Kremlin sources told Bloomberg.
At the weekend, he told a reporter that Ukraine had ‘opened this Pandora’s box’, and warned Kyiv: ‘Be ready to get a blowback on your most sensitive sectors of the economy.’
Fears have grown that Putin may be about to test a nuclear-powered cruise missile – dubbed the Flying Chernobyl (Pictured: A previous Burevestnik missile test in October 2019)
If Russia did deploy a nuclear weapon, it would likely be a tactic nuclear weapon, rather than a strategic missile (pictured: nuclear-capable cruise missile, Burevestnik)
For now, it is considering how it can ramp up its conventional ballistic assaults, including missile attacks on the centre of the capital, Kyiv.
But a growing number of Russian officials have concluded that Putin could eventually abandon the rules of modern warfare and hit the nuclear button, the sources said.
Tactical nuclear weapons, which are less powerful and have a shorter range, would be more likely than strategic missiles.
They would be used to gain the upper hand in a specific battlefield, rather than to decimate entire cities, like the bombs dropped by America on Japan in 1945.
Throughout the conflict, he has repeatedly flaunted the threat of nukes against Ukraine and its Western allies – even publishing maps showing strikes zones.
And if he made the call, there would be nobody to stand in his way.
Fiona Hill, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who served as a national security advisor to three US presidents including Trump in his first term, said: ‘For Putin there is no sign of collective will anywhere to resist him and so many ways in which he can grind people down.
‘This is why a concerted collective and consistent effort to resist his actions, and to engage in diplomacy, is essential.
‘He has a single-minded focus and we are all over the place.’
It was reported this week that the Putin might be abouyt to test a nuclear-powered cruise missile – dubbed the Flying Chernobyl – that can fly for days, according to analysts.
An influx of aircraft and shipping has converged in the Arctic in a telltale sign that a new experimental firing is expected of a weapon powered by its own atomic reactor, say analysts.
The ‘invincible’ Burevestnik missile – with a nickname inspired by the nuclear catastrophe that could be inflicted, much like the Chernobyl power plant explosion in 1986 – carries a nuclear warhead with an ‘unlimited range’ and is designed to fly for days at a time before striking the West, according to the Russians.
While the chance of nuclear weapons still looks remote, the only way to rule them out completely would be a swift diplomatic end to the war – something that now seems out of reach.
The US is preoccupied with the conflict in Iran, and Putin has abandoned its hope of an understanding between Donald Trump and himself that was fostered during at their summit in Alaska last August.
Russia has indicate there may be a path to peace if Ukraine hands over its ‘fortress belt’ of cities in the Donbas that have held firm since the start of armed hostilities in 2014 – but Kyiv has made clear that is not on the table.
A recent indication of the US’s feeling toward Russia came from Secretary of State Marco Rubio in June, when he said: ‘If there had been an agreement, we would have had an end to the war.’
CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a rare visit to Moscow on Tuesday for a diplomatic meeting, though it’s unclear what the focus was.
