Families in China are now supporting more elderly people than children, the government has said.
Official data released last week show that the ratio of China’s dependent elderly people to the working-age population rose to 23% last year, overtaking the figure for children, which stood at 22%.
The numbers are closely watched for signs of how China’s shrinking workforce will affect both the world’s second-largest economy and global growth.
The latest figures mark a significant milestone as China grapples with an ageing population that could affect families, pensions and healthcare spending, analysts say.
China has prepared for a growing proportion of elderly people in recent years, while urging younger generations to marry and couples to have more children.
The latest data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics show that more than 223 million people in China are aged 65 and above, accounting for nearly 16% of the country’s total population.
At the same time, about 213 million children are aged 14 and under.
No official commentary accompanied the statistics. But the Chinese state-controlled news outlet Global Times wrote that the nation’s “entry into a moderately ageing society” results from a mix of factors, including the “size of past birth cohorts” and longer life expectancy.
The shift could add strain on pension, healthcare, and long-term care systems, while also creating opportunities in the so-called silver economy that caters to older consumers, the newspaper said.
“It reflects a historical trend in demographic development rather than a short-term phenomenon,” one researcher told the Global Times.
The demographic shift is “symbolic” and could mean more public spending shifts from families and schools to pensions and healthcare, said Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten of The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
It may also challenge the country’s ambitions, as it could limit economic growth and people’s spending power, said National University of Singapore sociology lecturer Mu Zheng.
China’s ageing population has been driven by a mix of factors, including rapid urbanisation and the effects of the controversial one-child policy, which was in place from 1980 to the end of 2015.
The strategy, designed to keep China’s rapid population growth under control, is estimated by the country’s government to have prevented about 400 million births since it began, though this number has been contested.
The policy played a key role in shrinking the population, meaning fewer younger people to support a growing number of elderly relatives, Mu said.
But despite easing restrictions on family size, Beijing has struggled to persuade couples to have more children, with birth rates hitting historic lows.
Other contributing factors include changing gender roles, rising living costs and higher education levels that have put pressure on fertility rates, Mu said.
Beijing also made further support for older people part of its five-year economic blueprint, announced earlier this year.
Financial support for pensioners has become an increasingly large part of Chinese government spending. By the end of 2025, more than 53 million elderly people were receiving senior citizen allowances and subsidies, according to official figures.
The Global Times noted that many people entering old age who were born between the 1950s and the 1970s generally have higher incomes than previous generations, stronger purchasing power, and are healthier.
The dependency ratio is widely used to measure ageing populations, but some experts have questioned it, arguing its scope is too limited.
Gietel-Basten said using the statistics risks “taking agency away” from older people, many of whom he says have been misrepresented as dependants.
It also fails to account for improvements in healthcare, he added.
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