The Ghana cedi, which has already enjoyed an extraordinary year of appreciation, is projected to face a slight depreciation in the final quarter of 2025, but will still finish the year on a positive note.
This is according to research by international risk‐analytics firm, Fitch Solutions.
According to the report, the cedi has gained more than 29% against the US dollar in the retail market so far in 2025, positioning itself for a rare year of net appreciation.
Currently trading around GH¢12.00 to one US dollar at forex bureaus and about GH¢10.92 on the inter‐bank market, the local currency is forecast to depreciate modestly by about 8% by end-2025, before settling at around GH¢11.70 to the dollar on the inter-bank market by end-2026.
Fitch emphasises that while some weakening is expected, the depreciation will be relatively tame, compared with past years of high volatility.
“We expect most major Sub-Saharan African currencies to remain broadly stable through quarter 4 2025 and into 2026, extending the calm observed year-to-date. Indeed, we anticipate only a slight weakening of the Ghana cedi, Zambia kwacha, Nigeria Naira and South Africa rand by the end of 2025.
“While modest depreciation against the US dollar is likely in the coming quarters, currencies will remain far more stable than during the volatility experienced in 2023 and 2024,” it said.
Cedi opens November trading at GH¢10.90 to $1
It points to continued risk appetite for emerging markets, a softer US dollar, robust gold prices, and the strong interventions by the Bank of Ghana supported by export earnings as stabilising factors.
The firm warns, however, that although the cedi has regained strength, lasting re-gains will be limited by policy uncertainties and the need to preserve export competitiveness via sustainable reserves.
Policymakers are urged to guard against complacency amid the improved currency performance.
ID/AE
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