The good thing about far from vintage renewals of a top-class race is that it usually results in a good betting heat.
Today’s Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe (3.05) can be filed under that category. There doesn’t seem to be a superstar in this year’s race but we get 4-1 the field as a result.
Japan have three solid contenders to end their drought in the race. Croix Du Nord probably has the best form claims but stall 17 has done him no favours.
Byzantine Dream won a trial in Paris in decent fashion and has the stamina reserves for a test like this but he’s another that’s been hard done by with the draw.
Alohi Alli looks the most interesting of the Japanese trio. His draw in four is ideal and could be allowed to dictate terms at the head of affairs in a race that lacks obvious pace angles.
That’s what he did when winning a Group Two on Deauville but he’s surely not going to be as soft a lead as he had that day.
Andre Fabre has won the Arc eight times and has a good chance of making it nine in Paris
Godolphin No 1 jockey William Buick will be on progressive three-year-old Cualificar in the Arc
Minnie Hauk is favourite but the balance of three-year-old filly form makes her vulnerable
The long-term weather forecast looked to be in Japan’s favour but rain has dampened enthusiasm for their challenge yet again. They are getting closer but another near miss looks likely.
Minnie Hauk is a drifting favourite and there are those who believe that, despite being, unbeaten, the form of the three-year-old fillies lacks a little substance.
She outstayed stablemate Whirl in the Oaks and grinded out a weaker Irish equivalent. She showed a bit more zip in the Yorkshire Oaks but that was nothing more than a formality.
Aidan O’Brien has supplemented her for this, suggesting she was far from No 1 at Ballydoyle for the Arc assignment at the start of the season.
She’s the one in the field with the most potential but the balance of her form doesn’t quite stack up and looks an opposable favourite.
Aventure is second in the market and leads the home challenge. She was visually the most impressive winner on Trials day when taking out the Prix Vermeille.
She was a solid second in last year’s Arc and holds every chance of going one better. Odds of 5-1 are fair and out of the top two in the market looks a better play than Minnie Hauk.
However, stall 12 is a little wider than ideal and in an open and weak-looking affair this race might all be down to untapped potential and meticulous race planning.
O’Brien is still without the services of No 1 jockey Ryan Moore, who is sidelined with injury
Trainer Andre Fabre has won the Arc eight times and could make it nine with two big runners in SOSIE (15-2, Sky Bet, five places) and CUALIFICAR (12-1, William Hill, four places).
Sosie was fourth last year in the Arc when things were possibly a little too attritional for him as a three-year-old.
There’s little doubt he’s been working back to this all year since that fine effort. It’s a familiar path that Fabre has chartered with his best horses.
His most recent Arc winner was Waldgeist in 2019 when he ran down Enable. He was fourth in the race the year before and built on his prep run in the Prix Foy.
Sosie shaped well in this year’s Prix Foy when second and should strip fitter for that and be primed by Fabre for the big day. He has a couple of lengths on his best form to find but it seems entirely plausible in a weak and open Arc.
His Longchamp record reads 1114112 and with Sky Bet offering five places he rates as an each-way bet to nothing. The draw in three is ideal and it’s little wonder that he’s attracted strong support in the betting in recent days. He’s a solid contender.
It’s also worth siding with the other Fabre runner Cualificar. The three-year-old got out of trouble in giving Fabre a 13th Prix Niel victory. He was value for a lot more than the bare neck margin.
He was second in the French Derby and is another typical Fabre runner that is improving into the autumn. The Niel didn’t look the strongest of trials at the time but the form was boosted with Tennessee Stud, who was fourth, winning a Group Two at Longchamp yesterday. The Niel runner-up Bay City Roller was second to the Fabre-trained Prix Dollar winner First Look yesterday.
Fabre has won races all over the world, picking up the 2023 Hong Kong Vase
Being out of an Oaks winner, this mile and a half should suit Cualificar and he’s a three-year-old that boasts plenty of potential and is still a shade underestimated in the market. Stall eight should be fine as well.
This is an open race, however, and at least half the field would have chances on their best form. White Birch and Los Angeles could outrun their odds on their best form. Leffard was beaten favourite in the Niel but had excuses.
Kalpana may have the best form of all on her second-placed effort in the King George but the September Stakes defeat was disappointing for all that it was a prep race.
Daryz and Gezora give Francis-Henri Graffard a strong hand. Both have a smart level of form.
It’s not a vintage Arc but it presents plenty of value at the prices. It’s quite a puzzle to solve but hopefully it’ll be Fabre on cloud nine by the end of it all.
PERFORMANCE OF THE WEEK…
FALLEN ANGEL was an impressive Sun Chariot Stakes winner and is a really hardy filly that finds well for pressure when challenged. She fended off Blue Bolt to win by two and a quarter lengths, powering away at the line.
The high winds were no issue at HQ and it was another Group One win for Fallen Angel. A few weeks ago she won the Matron Stakes in Ireland and two months ago she won the Prix Rothschild in France. A fantastic effort from the Karl Burke yard.
Fallen Angel stretches clear of Blue Bolt to win the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket
Fallen Angel’s trainer Karl Burke has picked up a third successive Group One victory with her
SELECTION OF THE DAY…
A simply mouthwatering day of action at Paris Longchamp lies ahead. The recent rain should be a big plus for TAMFANA (4-1, Paddy Power) in the Prix d’Opera (3.50) who has been kept fresh for this by trainer David Menuisier.
She’s shown mainly her best form in France and this looks a slightly easier Group One than those she contested last year. A mile and a quarter on soft ground also looks her optimum trip.
