- More migrants than forecast for 2024-25
Australia’s immigration levels are expected to keep climbing at a higher level than previously anticipated – calling into question Labor’s promise to slow population growth.
Treasury’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecast 340,000 migrants arriving in Australia in 2024-25 during a housing crisis.
That’s significantly higher than the 260,000 level forecast for this financial year in the May Budget.
‘Departures are expected to pick up over 2024–25, albeit at a slower rate than anticipated at Budget,’ Treasury said.
But even those upwardly revised forecasts could end up being way off with 448,090 migrants arriving in Australia, on a permanent and long-term basis, in the year to October.
This net figure, factoring in departures, was closer to the record-high intake of 548,800 in the year to September 2023, and it was also higher than the 445,600 level for 2023-24.
Treasury’s May Budget had forecast 395,000 arrivals in the year to June but they were off by 50,600 – or the population of Port Macquarie on the New South Wales mid north coast.
‘While the number of new arrivals is declining in line with expectations at Budget, departures were lower than expected in 2023–24,’ the Budget update said.
Australia’s immigration levels are expected to keep climbing at a higher level than previously anticipated – calling into question Labor’s promise to slow population growth (pictured is Sydney’s Pitt Street Mall)
The big influx of international students is putting pressure on rents in Australia’s big cities.
The flood of migrants into Sydney is also leading to a huge exodus of residents from Australia’s most expensive city to south-east Queensland, further driving up house prices.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said higher-than-expected immigration for 2024-25 meant Australia would struggle to build 1.2million homes over five years, as promised by Labor.
‘With dwelling completions remaining well below the government’s target for 240,000 a year this implies no progress in reducing the housing shortage this year,’ he said.
The Budget update had 255,000 migrants arriving in 2025-26, with Treasury’s December forecast unchanged from May.
But even this figure would be higher than the mining boom levels of 2007, when 244,000 migrants moved to Australia.
It would also be more than double the 106,425 intake of 2004, before immigration kept on soaring until the 2020 pandemic.
Nonetheless, Treasury forecast net overseas migration slowing over the next three years, predicting 225,000 arrivals in 2026-27 and another 225,000 in 2027-28.
Treasury’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecast 340,000 migrants arriving in Australia in 2024-25 (pictured is Prime Minister Anthony Albanese)
‘Net overseas migration peaked in 2022–23, and is forecast to decline over the forward estimates,’ it said.
The figures have been revealed only days after Jennifer Westacott, a former head of the Business Council of Australia who advocated high immigration, was appointed to the Reserve Bank board.
Australia is now home to 27.2million – just six years after surpassing the 25million milestone.
Treasury has a track record of wrong predictions with its first Intergenerational Report in 2002 not expecting the 25million level to be reached until 2042.
Its forecasts have consistently underestimated immigration-fuelled population growth, as recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
