A concerning number of Americans expect that a major political candidate will be assassinated in the coming years, according to a shocking new survey.
Fifty-five percent believe that political violence will rise, according to a survey from POLITICO and Public First.
The assassination of Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk and the multiple attempts last year on President Donald Trump‘s life have rattled people in both parties.
Politically-motivated violence has been ascendant in US life over the past decade, clearly visible in the violent Antifa movement and the deadly January 6 Capitol riot.
The result: a surprisingly large expectation among respondents that the US is primed for another political assassination attempt.
A majority of survey respondents indicated that they think it is likely that a political candidate will be assassinated within five years.
Disturbingly, a significant chunk of those who took the survey – 24 percent – claimed that political violence is not always wrong.
Younger Americans, specifically one in three under the age of 45, agreed that political violence can be justified.
A protester waves the Mexican flag beside the wreckage of a burnt car sprayed with graffiti against US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), as law enforcement clashes with demonstrators during a protest following federal immigration operations, in the Compton neighborhood of Los Angeles, California on June 7, 2025
Political protests across Los Angeles over the summer resulted in Trump deploying 2,000 National Guard troops to the city
Trump shortly after getting shot in the ear during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024
Still, the prospects for those wishing to carry out such horrific acts are, at best, dim.
Thomas Matthew Crooks, the young man who was behind the first assassination attempt on Trump’s life, was immediately killed by the return fire of a Secret Service sniper after grazing the Republican candidate’s right ear with an AR-15 round.
Ryan Routh, the man behind Trump’s second assassination attempt, who was recently found guilty on five federal charges, will almost certainly spend the rest of his life in prison.
Tyler Robinson, the 22-year-old who allegedly shot Charlie Kirk, is currently in a Salt Lake City prison and faces the death penalty.
Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago who studies political violence, told POLITICO that the US is in the throes of a new wave of political violence.
‘We’re not on the brink of it, we’re firmly in the grip of it,’ Pape shared.
‘What’s happening is public support for political violence is growing in the mainstream, it’s not a fringe thing, and the more it grows, the more it seems acceptable to volatile people,’ he added.
The political violence isn’t siloed to the national conversation either.
Anti-ICE protestors gather in Manhattan to demonstrate against federal officers
Protesters march during the ‘Rise Up for Gaza’ international day of action at Washington Square Park, New York City on October 4, 2025
In June, ex-Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband were assassinated in their home.
Governor Tim Walz later called the hit ‘politically motivated,’ and the man accused of killing the couple has been indicted on federal murder charges.
Similarly, a man firebombed the Pennsylvania Governor’s mansion in April, expecting to harm Josh Shapiro.
Members of Congress have also expressed their concerns about rising political violence.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has pushed measures to provide members with additional cash for security measures, like home security camera installation.
Republican and Democratic lawmakers frequently quip about the death threats they receive.
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez revealed in September that she canceled a campaign event in the wake of Kirk’s assassination, citing, in part, safety concerns.
