Moscow is helping China to prepare for a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to an analysis of leaked Russian documents by a UK-based defense and security forum.
The Royal United Services Institute’s analysis is based on around 800 pages of documents, including contracts and lists of equipment to be supplied by Moscow to Beijing, from the Black Moon hacktivist group.
The mix of completed and apparent draft Russian documents reference meetings between Chinese and Russian delegations and payment and delivery timelines for high-altitude parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles.
They suggest that Russia has begun work on the products to be delivered but don’t contain direct evidence from the Chinese side that Beijing has paid any money or received any equipment.
While the authors argue the equipment could be used to invade Taiwan, under Xi Jinping China has embarked upon a broad modernization program of its armed forces with the goal of transforming it into a ‘world-class’ military by 2050.
High ranking US officials have suggested Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered his military to be prepared for a possible invasion of Taiwan as early as 2027.
Beijing claims the self-governing democracy is rightfully a part of China and has not ruled out seizing the island by force.
The documents don’t mention Taiwan directly, but the analysis by the London-based institute suggests the deal would help China gain advanced parachuting capabilities that it would need to mount an invasion, potentially speeding up a timeline.
Moscow is helping China to prepare for a potential invasion of Taiwan , according to an analysis of leaked Russian documents by a U.K.-based defense and security forum. Pictured: Leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping take part in a wreath laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Alexander Garden on Victory Day, which marks the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, in Moscow, Russia, 09 May 2025
Chinese troops from the People’s Liberation Army are seen patrolling with the Chinese flag on an exercise
It’s not certain that China has decided to invade Taiwan, but access to Russian equipment and localized training in China means Beijing will be better equipped for a potential invasion, analyst Oleksandr Danylyuk said.
‘The Chinese school of airborne landing is very young,’ he said, suggesting Moscow’s assistance could help speed up China’s airborne program by about 10 to 15 years.
Russia’s Kremlin, and China and Taiwan’s defense and foreign ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
‘The greatest value of the deal’ to China is likely in the training and procedures for command and control of parachute forces, because Russia has ‘combat experience,’ whereas China doesn’t’, adds Danylyuk and analyst Jack Watling.
The analysts say Russia’s aim is to develop as a military supplier to China and fund its war in Ukraine.
But Danylyuk also suggested that Moscow may want to draw Beijing into a conflict with Washington over Taiwan, distracting the US from Russia’s war with Ukraine.
While Beijing’s military capabilities largely surpass Moscow’s, the analysis says China has gaps which Russia can fill.
Russia has a long history of airborne forces dating back decades.
Beijing regularly sends warplanes and naval vessels towards Taiwan. Pictured: Taiwan Coast Guard Special Task Unit members onboard a speedboat simulate a response to a vessel highjacking emergency, during a joint-forces exercise in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, on June 08
Taiwanese soldiers pose for group photos with a Taiwan flag after a preparedness enhancement drill in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan
Song Zhongping, a military commentator in Beijing, said China had superior equipment, but ‘Russia has more combat experience.’
‘Russia and China have their own relative strengths in paratrooping,’ Song said.
They ‘conducted joint air, sea patrols and drills, which indicates they are learning from each other’s strengths to address their own weaknesses.’
According to a document dated September 2024, an initial agreement was reached in April 2021 with timelines for payments and delivery.
Stages one and two – analysis of technical specifications, software modifications and equipment manufacturing – have been completed, according to that document.
Russia also agreed to provide training in China and a complete set of equipment for an airborne battalion including the ability to carry out infiltration by special forces, the analysis says.
That includes the sale of 37 light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 amphibious anti-tank self-propelled guns, and 11 airborne armored personnel carriers, as well as command and observation vehicles. The total cost is listed as more than $210 million.
Beijing wants all the vehicles to be equipped with Chinese communication systems and to be prepared to use Chinese ammunition, the documents show.
Just three months ago, the head of NATO warned that a ‘massive’ buildup of China’s military raised the risk of a potential invasion of Taiwan.
Speaking ahead of the alliance’s summit in The Hague back in June, NATO secretary general Mark Rutte said: ‘We have this close relationship with Japan and the Republic of Korea, Australia and New Zealand, exactly for the reason that these countries are very, very worried about the massive military buildup in China that at the moment is taking place.’
Mr Rutte added that if China moved in on Taiwan, there was a possibility that Beijing would draw in Vladimir Putin, impacting European security.
‘We are all very worried, of course, about the situation in Taiwan. And we also know there is a risk that if the Chinese will try anything with Taiwan, that no doubt he will call his junior partner, Mr Putin, and make sure … he will keep us busy here, if that would happen’, he said.
In his pre-summit address, Mr Rutte also noted that China’s rapidly expanding military capabilities were evident from the global rise of its defence firms.
‘We know that out of the 10 biggest defence companies, only a couple of years ago you would not find any Chinese companies. At this moment, you will find three to five Chinese defence companies in the top 10 of biggest defence companies in the world’, he said.
‘This shows you that this massive buildup is taking place and is having a huge impact, also when it comes to the defence industrial production of China.’
Mr Rutte added that due to the potential risk, NATO members have to ‘stand ready’ and ‘cannot be naive’.
