Labour could lose several more seats to Nigel Farage‘s Reform UK than the Conservatives, a new mega-poll has found.
It suggested that Labour would lose many constituencies across their ‘red wall’ as well as seats in Wales and the south of England if an election were held today.
But the analysis – seen by The Observer – suggests that Reform would hypothetically bag 76 new seats, 60 of which would be Labour.
The research also anticipated that even the slightest swing in favour of the Reform part could see Starmer’s party lose 76 seats.
Labour’s slim lead means an increase in Reform voters or the slightest drop in support for the party could see Farage take the lead.
The poll commissioned by Hope Not Hate campaign group was conducted by Focaldata, who surveyed nearly 18,000 voters.
Their research found that 4,000 would support Reform, with one fifth of those labelling themselves as ‘moderate, interventionist ‘ voters – dissimilar to previous UKIP or Brexit voters.
It found that these voters had a positive outlook on immigration but felt let down by Labour’s ability to come through on their policies.
Labour could lose several more seats to Nigel Farage ‘s Reform UK than the Conservatives , a new pol finds.
The research also anticipated that even the slightest swing in favour of the Reform part could see Starmer’s party lose 76 seats
Although Reform’s rise saw the Conservatories take a major hit in the most recent election, many think the party could pose a risk to Keir Starmer.
A senior Labour source told the Guardian: ‘At the general election, the vast majority of people who voted for Reform were not considering Labout.
‘That won’t be true now, because we’re in government and people are looking for change.
‘The number of people are feeling unsure about the future is quite bit. It’s not just on the fringes of the electoral system.
‘It’s not just turbulence. It is a change of era. People are angrier. There is a lot more voter fluidity.’
It comes after another poll showed that Reform UK surged ahead of the Tories and is now just three points behind Labour.
The research by Survation found Nigel Farage’s party were backed by 24 per cent of voters, which was up four percentage points from a survey last month.
The Tories slumped three points to 22 per cent in the latest poll, while Labour were also down three points to 27 per cent.
With fewer than half of the electorate currently intending to vote for one of the two main parties, the pollster said this represented an ‘historic low’.
‘The electorate is fragmented, with disillusioned voters seeking alternatives beyond the two main parties,’ said Survation’s strategy and research manager Jack Peacock.
The survey found, alongside Reform, other smaller parties were also capitalising on voter discontent.
Reform UK has surged ahead of the Tories and is now just three points behind Labour, a new Survation poll has shown
The survey found Nigel Farage’s party were backed by 24 per cent of voters, which was up four percentage points from a survey last month
The Liberal Democrats were on 13 per cent support, up two points, while the Greens and SNP were both up one point on 8 per cent and three per cent, respectively.
After a turbulent first six months in power, the pollster said Labour was struggling to hold on to those who backed the party in July.
Sir Keir had retained just 77 per cent of the voters who gave him a landslide general election victory in the summer, the research showed.
Labour was found to be losing 8 per cent of its vote share to Reform, while 7 per cent have moved to the Lib Dems and 4 per cent to the Greens.
But Reform are a bigger threat to the Tories, according to the poll, with Mr Farage’s party drawing nearly one in five (19 per cent) who backed the Conservatives in July.
This was up from 14 per cent last month.
Survation said there was ‘stark’ fragmentation on the right of British politics.
The poll found 36 per cent of Reform voters would consider voting Tory, while 37 per cent of Conservative voters would consider backing Reform.
