Labour‘s plan to release thousands of killers, thugs and paedophiles looks set to be thrown into chaos as probation officers are expected to vote in favour of industrial action.
The results of a ballot of thousands of probation staff represented by the National Association of Probation Officers (Napo) is expected as early as tomorrow, with sources saying that a vote in favour looked ‘fairly clear-cut’.
Voting closed tonight and the poll is only ‘indicative’, meaning another official ballot must be held for any industrial action to be legal.
But with the dry-run result expected to be in favour, it means strikes could be underway by the end of the year, coinciding with Labour’s early release scheme.
Under the scheme, around 5,000 serious criminals – including killers and wife-beaters – will be released early over ten months from October.
Following an urgent review, around 1,000 rapists and the most serious sex offenders will be excluded.
But among those set to be released are PC Andrew Harper’s killers, which has sparked a furious row in recent weeks.
Martin Jones, the Chief Inspector of Probation, told the Mail that industrial action ‘would certainly run the risk of significantly disrupting’ the early release scheme
Any industrial action threatens to throw the early release scheme into chaos as those freed early will need supervision by probation officers, potentially adding thousands of cases to their workload.
And there are concerns many of those released will re-offend if probation officers are forced to cut corners.
Probation Service chiefs have already warned officers’ workload is close to breaking point and that previous early release schemes likely only worked because they did overtime in the evenings and weekends.
Among the thousands of serious criminals set to be released are people with convictions for manslaughter, domestic abuse, child pornography, drug dealing and wounding with intent.
Martin Jones, the Chief Inspector of Probation, told the Mail: ‘I have repeatedly highlighted the heroic performance the Probation Service delivered during previous early releases, and I continue to see committed practitioners working to achieve better outcomes for the people they manage.
‘However, despite some improvements, it remains the case that the Service has too few staff, with too little experience, managing too many cases.
‘Industrial action during the implementation of the early releases would certainly run the risk of significantly disrupting the process.’
Highlighting the potential dangers to the public, Napo boss Ian Lawrence said: ‘The people who have been excluded from this early release scheme are the least likely, statistically, to reoffend.
‘Whereas people who have committed domestic violence crimes or have been involved in stalking offences, potentially statistically anyway, are more likely to be reoffenders and recalled to prison.’
He added: ‘Our members’ workloads are through the roof and pay is totally inadequate for the responsibility of the job.’
The Probation Service employs about 21,000 full-time staff, but has a shortfall of about 1,500 full-time probation officers. The latest government data from December showed 5,437 full-time probation officers in post against a target level of 7,110.
A Ministry of Justice spokesman said: ‘We have already exceeded our 2025-26 recruitment target, with 1,389 people starting as trainee probation officers last year against a target of 1,300.’
