Russia could send an armed group to occupy NATO territory in Europe, US intelligence has warned.
Officials believe that Putin could launch a small land incursion into a disputed Eastern European outpost such as the disputed Estonian city of Narva, or launch a cyber attack, to test the alliance’s resolve.
Until now, US intelligence believed the Kremlin dictator would not risk provoking NATO while fighting in Ukraine.
But this assessment changed this year as Russia comes under increasing pressure from Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries and logistics hubs, according to The Wall Street Journal.
NATO members believe Putin is already conducting probing attacks to test and fracture the alliance.
Western fighter jets have been scrambled three times in the last few weeks to shoot down drones, while Ukraine recently intercepted a drone that had earlier crossed into Romanian airspace.
And fighter jets were scrambled over 250 per cent more in July compared with a year ago as Russia continues to probe the West’s defences.
The sharp increase in the monthly figure for July compared with the same month in 2025 highlights Putin’s aggressive stance.
Russia could send an armed group to occupy NATO territory within weeks, US intelligence has warned
NATO members believe Putin is already conducting probing attacks to test and fracture the alliance. Pictured: A Russian 220mm heavy multiple launch rocket system firing at an undisclosed location in Ukraine
A Russian serviceman intercepting Ukraine drones with a machine-gun at an undisclosed location in Ukraine on August 7
‘The numbers do not lie,’ said a post by NATO’s Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum.
‘The possible threats range from a cyberattack on a NATO country or sending unmarked armed groups to occupy territory to a limited incursion on the alliance’s eastern flank,’ said the WSJ report.
The time frame for a Russian move is between this autumn and 2029, according to US intelligence assessments.
‘We are always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios,’ said NATO spokesman Col. Martin O’Donnell.
‘NATO is watching and we are ready to deter and defend as necessary.’
The warnings come amid US concern about a shortfall of munitions after supplies to Ukraine and use in the Middle East conflict.
One theory is Putin could grab a city or region in Poland or one of the three Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all NATO members which have strongly backed Ukraine.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda warned recently: ‘I cannot deny that we have such information and that it concerns kinetic operations.
‘Not on a large scale, but targeted kinetic operations that are very likely to be directed against critical infrastructure.’
Russian opposition politician and chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov said: ‘I think the chances [are] that he’ll cross NATO borders — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, just a small incursion using drones.
‘I think the chances are growing because Putin needs a winning narrative and Ukraine doesn’t offer it.’
All three Baltic states have strengthened their border defences against Russia and close ally Belarus.
The Baltic states have some of the highest defence spending in all of NATO in relative terms – Lithuania directs 5.3 percent of GDP to defence, the most of NATO’s 32 members.
Last month, Washington warned the Kremlin could be planning an armed incursion on Polish land to test Nato‘s response.
The provocation could see Putin‘s troops cross over into Poland, and vital infrastructure could be targeted by missiles and drones.
Sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki told news outlet Onet that the US had been warning Warsaw about the plan for a while.
Russia’s plan aims to start a crisis to scare Western nations into stopping their support for Ukraine.
Polish security experts also warned that Russia and Belarus might send a small number of troops across the Nato border.
File image: A still image taken from a handout video provided by the Russian Defence Ministry press service on 07 August 2026 shows a Russian self-propelled gun firing at an undisclosed location in Ukraine
Until now, US intelligence believed the Kremlin dictator would not risk provoking NATO while fighting in Ukraine. File image shows a Russian soldier in an unknown location in Ukraine
Power stations could also be targeted in the incursion, through air strikes that would force Poland to activate its air defence systems.
Moscow’s strategy relies on the assumption that the US would compel Poland to negotiate rather than engage militarily.
It comes as Ukrainian long-range drones hit a warehouse in the Ural Mountains belonging to Russia’s biggest online retailer, more than 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) from the two countries’ border, local officials and the company said Friday.
Ukraine has regularly hit targets in the distant Urals this year and has even struck a Russian oil refinery in western Siberia, nearly 2,500 kilometers (1,550 miles) from the border.
The attacks are examples of how Kyiv has used drone innovation as a key part of its response to the invasion by its much bigger enemy more than four years ago.
Its successes have drawn international interest and drone cooperation agreements with nine countries, with further deals being negotiated with 15 other countries, according to Kyiv officials.
A Wildberries warehouse in Yekaterinburg, Russia’s fourth-largest city, was set ablaze by the attack, the company said.
Most merchandise wasn’t damaged, it said, unlike at some of the more than a dozen other Wildberries depots struck by Ukraine in recent weeks that have burned down. Kyiv is trying to rattle the Russian public and the Kremlin with the attacks.
File image: A fire breaks out following massive Russian ballistic missile strikes in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on August 5, 2026, amid the Russian invasion in Ukraine
File image: Smoke billows from a warehouse, after deadly Ukrainian drone attacks, as per regional governors, in Elektrostal, Moscow Region, Russia
File image: A man walks past burned-out cars and a residential building that went up in flames during a recent Russian strike are scattered in a residential area, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, July 30, 2026
The regional governor, Denis Pasler, said three drones hit the warehouse’s roof. Artyom Zhoga, the Kremlin’s representative in the region, said that 800 people were evacuated from the warehouse and nobody was hurt.
And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is pushing for his country to keep up the pace of technological development, especially in air defense systems to help stop Russian ballistic missiles that are exploiting Ukraine’s shortage of American-made Patriot interceptor missiles and battering civilian areas.
A joint European anti-ballistic development program is already underway, Zelenskyy said late Thursday, with 10 countries engaged in developing an anti-ballistic shield. Europe is concerned about Moscow’s ambitions on the continent beyond Ukraine.
‘Ukraine is capable of producing its (anti-ballistic) missile and launcher, while our partners will provide the necessary components and critical elements – radars, sensors, and everything else required,’ Zelenskyy said on social media.
‘An anti-ballistic program of our own – one that is truly large-scale – will greatly benefit everyone in Europe.’
At the same time, Ukraine is working on manufacturing its own ballistic missiles to use against Russia. ‘The tests have shown strong potential. We need to turn this into a real weapon,’ Zelenskyy said.
Ukrainian front-line defenses in eastern regions, meanwhile, remain under strain as Russia’s bigger army looks for a breakthrough after months of minimal advances that Western analysts and official says have had a high cost for Moscow in troop casualties.
Ukraine has been evacuating children from Kramatorsk, one of the four eastern Donetsk region cities that make up Ukraine’s so-called Fortress Belt.
The line of four large and heavily defended cities, about 50 kilometers (30 miles) long, has been key to denying Moscow its goal of seizing Ukraine’s industrial heartland.
The head of the Donetsk region’s regional military administration, Vadym Filashkin, said Friday that more than 800 people, including 91 children, were evacuated over the previous 24 hours.
Ukraine has been deploying midrange strike drones to disrupt Russia’s supply lines and slow it advance.
Russia and Ukraine sustain nightly drone attacks
Russia’s air defenses downed 203 Ukrainian drones from late Thursday through early Friday, the Defense Ministry in Moscow said.
Meanwhile, Russia attacked Ukraine with 147 long-range strike drones, according to the country’s air force.
In Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, a Russian drone struck a busy market Friday morning, wounding 10 people, authorities said.
Russia also launched glide bombs and drones of various types at the regional capital, according to the head of regional administration, Oleh Hryhorov.
The attack targeted residential buildings, transport and infrastructure, wounding two people, he said.
