Reform UK are set to become Scotland’s second-largest party at Holyrood elections in May, according to a new poll.
A survey of more than 1,000 Scottish voters, conducted by Survation for the Diffley Partnership, forecast Nigel Farage‘s party will win 19 seats in the Scottish Parliament.
This would put it ahead of Labour (18 seats), the Tories (13 seats), the Scottish Greens (10 seats) and the Liberal Democrats (7 seats), the research found.
The poll also projected the SNP would win 62 seats at the Holyrood contests on 7 May, which would leave the nationalist party three seats short of a majority.
The survey of 1,068 people, carried out between 16 to 23 March, put the SNP on 35 per cent support in the Holyrood constituency vote and 32 per cent in the regional list.
Reform would receive 19 per cent of the constituency vote and 18 per cent of the list, with Labour following closely behind with 19 per cent backing the party in constituencies and 17 oer cent in regional votes, according to the poll.
The survey also found SNP leader John Swinney continues to be the most popular political leader in Scotland, with a net favourability rating of minus 10 per cent.
This compared with minus 47 per cent for Prime Minister Keir Starmer and minus 25 per cent for Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar.
A survey of more than 1,000 Scottish voters, conducted by Survation for the Diffley Partnership, forecast Nigel Farage’s party will win 19 seats in the Scottish Parliament
Mr Farage has a minus 31 per cent rating in Scotland, compared with minus 15 per cent for Reform’s Scottish leader Malcolm Offord, although 55 per cent of respondents said they had no opinion of Lord Offord.
At the previous Scottish Parliament elections, held in 2021, the SNP won 64 seats, while the Tories won 31 seats and Labour won 22 seats.
Although the SNP were one short of a majority, they entered a power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens.
That deal later collapsed but the SNP have continued to govern as a minority administration.
Reform currently have one seat at Holyrood following the defection of former Tory MSP Graham Simpson in August.
There is an expectation that a disastrous result for Labour in Scotland, as well as in elections in England and Wales in May, will prompt an effort to oust Sir Keir among Labour MPs.
Mr Sarwar called for the PM to quit in February, saying there had been ‘too many mistakes’.
SNP campaign director Angus Robertson claimed the Survation poll showed a Holyrood majority was ‘within touching distance’.
‘This is yet another poll that shows Scottish voters are backing John Swinney’s strong leadership with a majority within touching distance,’ he said.
‘Not only does an SNP majority unlock independence, it locks Nigel Farage out of power – be in no doubt, without an SNP majority there is always the potential for a grubby, backroom deal between the Labour Party and Reform.
‘There is no room for complacency but by delivering on the priorities of the people of Scotland, a fresh start with independence is there to be won and every single vote counts.’
Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: ‘This election is a straight fight between John Swinney and Anas Sarwar.
‘All Reform do is generate noise – they are not a credible party, and they are not capable of removing the SNP from power.
‘In fact, they will only help prop up the dismal, failing, and tired SNP for another term in government. That is a disaster for our public services, including our NHS, and paves the way for the SNP to push for another divisive independence referendum.
‘We cannot afford to allow the SNP back into power. Reform and the Scottish Tories are fighting among themselves for votes, but both have already accepted that the SNP will win the election. We do not share that defeatist approach.
‘Scottish Labour is the only party that is campaigning with the ambition to boot out the SNP after 19 years in power, and to install Anas Sarwar as First Minister.
‘That is the choice that people have in front of them in this election – another decade of the SNP, or a new direction with Scottish Labour.’
The Survation poll found that since February, the number of people who answered ‘don’t know’ when asked about political leaders has dwindled, which Diffley Partnership founder Mark Diffley said indicates an increased interest in the Holyrood elections.
He said: ‘As the campaign now gets properly under way, this poll suggests that the SNP remain in a strong position, set to return as the largest party in May, but still falling short of a majority.
‘Support for the other parties is broadly dispersed, which means relatively small movements during the campaign could have a meaningful impact on the final seat picture.
‘Beyond the headline voting numbers, the survey also shows voters beginning to pay closer attention to the people who want to lead Scotland.
‘Since February, we’ve seen a clear drop in the proportion of voters who say they ‘don’t know’ their view of each party leader, indicating that engagement is increasing as the election draws nearer.
‘At the same time, favourability has softened for almost every leader. This suggests that as voters tune in to the campaign, they are assessing leaders more critically.
‘Taken together, the findings point to a campaign that is now in motion, with voters paying closer attention but also becoming more demanding of those seeking office.
‘With several weeks still to go, there remains scope for both voting intention and leader perceptions to shift further.’
